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Studs, Duds, & Values In 2022 Fantasy Football
In part four of this eight part series, we’ll walk through the NFC East to identify a stud, a dud (bust), and a value on each team in regards to 2022 fantasy football. It’s important to remember that the “duds” are in reference to that particular player’s current ADP.
New York Giants
Stud: Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley is the definition of a stud. The problem is, he’s been marred by injuries and a poor offense over the last couple seasons. Now, he’s as healthy as he’s been in a while with the best offensive line he’s had in front of him in years. Remember, Barkley was one of the best running back prospects to ever enter the NFL. He’s still just 25 years old.
Dud: Kenny Golladay
Kenny Golladay has been a disaster since he joined the Giants. The team has only added target competition to the offense. Even with his ADP residing in the double-digit rounds, I have no desire to draft him.
Value: Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones may be a bad real life quarterback, but he’s sneaky good for fantasy. That’s thanks to his 26 rushing yards per game average over his career. Even while throwing just 10 touchdowns in 2021, Jones was able to muster up a QB17 finish in fantasy points per game. Now he has an offensive-minded head coach who comes over from Buffalo. That will only help the young quarterback develop his game both with his arm and with his legs. Remember, Brian Daboll was never shy about letting Josh Allen run during his tenure as Bills OC. I’d expect that to be the same with Jones, especially considering Jones is a fraction of the passer that Allen is.
Philadelphia Eagles
Stud: Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts barely threw for 3,000 yards and tossed just 16 touchdowns in 2021, yet he was the QB6 in fantasy points per game. How did he manage that? Well, he rushed for 782 yards and 10 scores. Now, he gets to throw to one of the best wide receivers in the league in an offense that everyone expects will pass at a much higher rate than they did in 2021. More drop-backs will also lead to more scrambles and more rushing production. Hurts could break fantasy football this year.
Dud: Devonta Smith
While it’s exciting to hear the Eagles are expected to pass more than they did in 2021, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re going to suddenly have one of the highest pass rates in the league. Either way, one of the biggest reasons we expect a shift in play selection is the addition of A.J. Brown to the offense. That’s not great news for Devonta Smith. Not only is he losing the WR1 job, he’s losing it to one of the most pure alpha wide receivers in the NFL. Brown is going to command a massive target share. We can’t even confidently project Devonta Smith to be second in line for targets as tight end Dallas Goedert seems to be the more likely candidate to be Hurts’ No.2 option.
Value: Kenny Gainwell
After finishing as a top-24 RB twice in the first four weeks of his rookie season, the Eagles seemed to scale back Kenny Gainwell’s role in favor of crusty veterans like Boston Scott and Jordan Howard. Still, Gainwell proved he can hang with the big dogs when given an opportunity. He was incredibly efficient as a receiver out of the backfield, averaging 1.73 yards per route and 7.7 yards per reception, which ranked sixth and 12th among all running backs, respectively (PlayerProfiler.com). That was on an 11.3-percent target share.
Gainwell is nearly a lock to seize a significant role in the Eagles backfield in 2022 as the primary passing downs back. It is widely expected that the Eagles will up their passing rate, which will only help Gainwell’s role grow. On top of that, there may be an opportunity to earn some more carries as well considering the team doesn’t exactly seem committed to giving Miles Sanders a full workhorse role.
Dallas Cowboys
Stud: CeeDee Lamb
Amari Cooper is gone. That elevates CeeDee Lamb to the clear No.1 option in the Dallas passing game. This is a fast-paced offense that likes to throw the ball. The schedule gets tougher which will only create more shootouts and more passing. Lamb’s target share should rise to the mid-20s as Dak Prescott’s pass attempts will likely crack the 600 mark for the first time. Lamb is about to take off.
Dud: Ezekiel Elliott
It’s finally Tony Pollard szn. Elliot’s efficiency has steadily declined over the last few years while Pollard has only proven he is the far more explosive option in the backfield. I believe the Cowboys want Zeke to continue to lead the backfield and will force feed him the ball, but as the season goes along they’ll have little choice but to give Pollard more and more opportunities. Elliott is the classic “dead zone” running back at this point in his career.
Value: Jalen Tolbert
With Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson gone, and Michael Gallup likely to start the season on PUP, Jalen Tolbert is the locked-in WR2 in Dallas. If he establishes himself early on, he’ll have an opportunity to keep that job even upon Gallup’s return. Tolbert will be a downfield playmaker for Dak Prescott while they move CeeDee Lamb around the formation and Dalton Schultz eats underneath.
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
Washington Commanders
Stud: Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin is far and away the most talented weapon on the Washington offense. He’ll easily lead the team in receiving numbers across the board and will be a solid WR2 for fantasy purposes. Not much else really needs to be said.
Dud: Antonio Gibson
I tweeted back in April: “Washington [was] active with a lot of RB prospects in the pre-draft process. You wonder if they love Gibson as much as we do.” Unfortunately, it’s looking like I was right. After that tweet, the Commanders went on to draft Brian Robinson in the third round. Training camp and preseason has been particularly troubling for Gibson. It started as speculation that Robinson would have a greater role than originally expected and J.D. McKissic would continue his passing downs work. It evolved into Gibson working on special teams while Robinson got reps with the first-team offense. Not good. I still like the talent of Gibson and believe he could work his way back into the good graces of the coaching staff, but at this point, where there is smoke, there is fire. I don’t say it often but this is a situation to stay away from.
Value: Curtis Samuel
Curtis Samuel is going undrafted in a lot of leagues, but I guarantee he has as much upside as any of the late-round wide receivers. His 2021 was essentially a lost season as he battled groin and hamstring injuries throughout the year. But it was just a year ago that Washington signed him to a three-year deal with $23 million in guaranteed money. And it was just two years ago that he topped 1,000 yards from scrimmage with five touchdowns on 77 receptions and 41 rush attempts on his way to a WR27 finish. He earned a 19.1-percent target share during that 2020 campaign while he racked up 227 yards after the catch.
With 4.31 speed and 93rd-percentile burst (PlayerProfiler.com), Samuel has the athleticism to become an explosive playmaker out of the slot for new quarterback Carson Wentz. He’s versatile enough to take snaps at running back, be the team’s primary deep threat, and gobble up yards after the catch on underneath targets. I understand the health concerns. They’re real. But that’s why his ADP is so low. Fantasy gamers have almost written him off. If he can beat out a rookie, and stay healthy, Samuel will be second on the team in targets with the upside to score 15 fantasy points in any given week.
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