Streaming QBs In 2020
Have you ever been in a position where you feel contrarian to a group of people you’re close with? I often get this strange feeling with my close friends during the draft season. I’ve been in the same fantasy league for nearly six years now with friends from college. As most “casual” players, I see similar strategies develop between teams. First, they fill every position in their starting lineup. Then they pick however many bench players that particular league needs. Out of the 12 teams in my league, six or eight follow this strategy to a tee.
However, I’ve never fit this mold. Rarely have I ever focused on either the Quarterback or Tight End position in this league. Similar to most leagues, we only start one of each position every week. It never felt like the quality of performance I received from drafting that top QB ever warranted it’s selection. Rather, I saw myself always scraping for a QB at the end of drafts, nearly always trying to find “my guy” back there who I believed could be a great value throughout the year.
As my strategy developed, I saw myself rarely holding onto that QB for long. I began prioritizing matchups and other factors in making my add/drops for the position. Without realizing it, I fell in love with the streaming strategy for the position. Using this method, I could get the most points possible each week. Join me, as I further expound upon this strategy, and divulge the secrets to the uneasy success that comes along with streaming QBs In 2020.
WHAT IS STREAMING?
First off, it’s important to define important terminology when it comes to streaming. Every analyst talks about it, but they rarely mention what streaming actually entails. Streaming a position is defined as rotating the player placed at a particular position with players from the waiver wire or a team’s bench. This strategy emphasizes matchup-based play over the true skill of the particular Quarterback, to ensure that the QB has the best possible chance of succeeding that particular week.
SHOULD YOU INTEND TO STREAM?
Before I proceed, let me be clear. You should never be intending to stream from day one. While streaming is an effective strategy, you should be targeting a particular late-round target that has the potential to become an every-week starter. Each year, QBs come from the woodwork to become the next hot commodity, allowing for stability at the position. Obvious examples of this from the past two years alone include Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen, among others.
However, this doesn’t always work out. Late QBs are late for a reason. They can fail to pan out, face adversity when played against grueling schedules, or fail to live up to the expectations place on them by you. As such, while streaming should not be the plan from day one, it is vital that you be comfortable making that change once you make a particular determination on your player. Streaming then becomes a way to mitigate schedule concerns, cold streaks for certain QBs, injuries, etc.
In this particular situation, a streaming QB’s likelihood of producing in the first four games of the year is paramount. For example, Daniel Jones can be an incredible fantasy Quarterback. As a rookie coming into a struggling offense in 2019, he produced four weeks of 28 or more fantasy points, a tremendous value for a waiver-wire addition. However, in the first three weeks of the season, the New York Giants play the Pittsburgh Steelers (#3 ranked passing defense in 2019), the Chicago Bears(#9), and San Francisco 49ers(#1). As such, while Jones has obvious streamer appeal, he is better left for waiver wires for the first few weeks of the season.
IS STREAMING EFFECTIVE?
I want you to walk you through a few thought experiments. First, think of players in the list below. What do you think this list represents?
Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, Ben Roethlisberger, Kyler Murray, Tom Brady
Did you guess the first 15 QBs off the board in 2019 according to ADP? Well if you did, reward yourself, because you nailed it. Quite a list right?
Now, ignore every single one of those names above. Out of those left in the NFL, if you chose the best fantasy finish per week at the position and combined those performances, where do you think you’d end up?
Did you guess the number one overall fantasy QB, outscoring Lamar Jackson by a whopping 100.22 points over the year? If so, well done for you! In creating this single “Quarterback”, there were top performances by nine different Quarterbacks, including multiple weeks by Jimmy Garrapolo, Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannehill, and Jacoby Brissett.
For the next thought experiment, I want you to think about all QBs in the NFL. How many different Quarterbacks do you think had at least one QB1 finish (where they finished inside the top 12)?
20?
30?
No. Thirty-nine
Thirty-nine different QBs were able to manage a top-12 performance in at least one week. This includes notable names such as Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, Joe Flacco, Jeff Driskel, and AJ McCarron among others. As you may expect, none of these players ever reached close to 50% ownership in fantasy leagues.
Clearly, it is not a guarantee to pick the right QB each week. Attempting to predict which QBs with low ownership will not be perfect. But by doing your homework, you can determine which QBs are prime streaming candidates each and every week.
WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FOR EACH WEEK?
Bad Defenses
From week to week, a perfect streamer will have a number of factors going in their favor. First and foremost, they will have a positive matchup. In order to determine what a “positive matchup” is, first look at passing defense. Matchups with the Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, and New York Giants, among others were all great for Quarterbacks last season. While they may not be the exact same each year, plus matchups are paramount for determining which streamers have the best likelihood of success each given week.
Home QBs Perform Better
Second, home/away splits can provide insights on avoiding major pitfalls when streaming. Some Quarterbacks, such as Ben Roethlisberger, are notorious for having poor home/away splits. Still, every Quarterback is affected in some way from playing away from home. SharpFootballStats looked at each team collectively, splitting home games and away games last season. Home Quarterbacks threw for higher yards per attempt and for more touchdowns compared to their away counterparts. While home/away should not be a deciding factor, involve it in the decision of which QB to stream on a given week.
Bye Weeks can Be your Friend or Your Enemy
Bye weeks may seem like a major pitfall for the streaming strategy. However, planning ahead in terms of bye weeks can be pivotal for effectively streaming the position. Look ahead while streaming, not just to this week but the week beyond it. For example, Daniel Jones has positive matchups in week 9 and week 12 but has Philadelphia and a Bye Week in the middle of that. However, Teddy Bridgewater has a decent matchup in Week 10 against the Chiefs and a plus matchup in Week 11 against the Buccaneers. Pairing these two Quarterbacks together could spell four productive weeks in a row in your starting lineup. Planning ahead is vital to streaming without major hiccups.
Stay Fluid
Most importantly, remember there are no loyalties when it comes to streaming the Quarterback position. When a QB has a great single week performance, it doesn’t always correlate to the next week. Going back to the well on Daniel Jones, every 28 points or better week was immediately followed by a week with 14.7 points or less. The goal of streaming is to find the best matchups each and every week. As such, it’s important to remember to renew that search each time to find the best streaming option possible. With a combination of determination and knowledge of how to play the streaming game, it’s quite possible to stream your way to a championship.
COVID-19’S IMPACT
Unique to this year, players will be placed on a Reserve/COVID-19 list in order to be effectively guaranteed were they to test positive. As prominent players, such as Matthew Stafford, Kenny Golladay, etc. have already been placed on this list, it is clear that players could be placed here at any time during the season. As such, streaming QBs in 2020 can give the player yet another benefit in these uncertain times.
By not selecting a QB in the early rounds, streaming QBs in 2020 allows for you to increase depth in positions where you start multiple players (RB and WR). Additionally, your investment in an early-round QB is much greater than when streaming. Therefore, if your particular Quarterback is placed on this list or major pieces for that QB are placed on that list, your loss is much less significant. Additionally, it’s much easier to transition to another streaming option should yours be placed on this list.
CONCLUSION
All in all, streaming presents a viable option every single year. However, with the unique uncertainties that the 2020 season presents, streaming QBs will be an extremely useful tool for fantasy players should they be willing to do the research to find the best potential option each and every week. Follow @FF_Durham each week throughout the season to find the best weekly streamers throughout the year!
