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This article is specifically dedicated to the Scott Fish Bowl, an annual redraft tournament that raises money for a variety of charities. Even if you missed out on the opportunity to partake this year, the content will still be useful for seasonal leagues.
Kickers Are People Too
In 2020 during the off-season I spent an entire afternoon neglecting my family to see if I can find a metric to help evaluate kickers better. The culmination of all that work can be read here. Since this is 2022, I don’t actually expect most to read that article. So a little TLDR; by utilizing median points per game and average points per game from the year prior. I found that a kicker who finished Top-12 that year and had a median points per game higher than their average points per game, had a 66.7-percent chance of being a Top-12 kicker the following year. The study also showed that kickers had a higher uptick in points per game if they were; playing in a dome, playing at home and/or on the winning team.
The SFB12 Twist
Scott always does a magnificent job finding a new wrinkle to throw into the scoring to keep people on their toes. Last year, he added in the ability for Kickers to be used as flex plays. This year, he supercharged the kicker position. Kickers do not lose points for missed attempts, they gain .10 per the total distance of the field goal (54 yards = 5.4 points) they gain one point per made field goal and per extra point attempt. To help put this into perspective Daniel Carlson the top scoring kicker last year would have roughly scored 232.6 points last year with this scoring (since I am unable to find the exact yardage of all of his field goals I rounded down on every field but his game long). Based on last years results with the new scoring, he’d have scored six points less than CeeDee Lamb, who’d have scored 238.4 points this year with last years finish.
The Rub
Kickers are going to be exceptionally important, so this how I’m taking advantage of this information. Identifying Kickers on high scoring offenses will be how most managers approach their kicker selection. Most won’t take the time to decipher which kickers are worth while, but I am not most people. So let me illuminate my theory here. I also am projecting most teams to take one kicker leaving the field very open to exploit.
Identifying
As mentioned above, here are the kickers that placed in the Top-12 last year and had a median over average points per game. Daniel Carlson, Evan McPherson, Justin Tucker, Greg Joseph, Chris Boswell, Jake Elliot, Dustin Hopkins and Harrison Butker. Tyler Bass had the same median and average points per game, but that offense is so high powered I am including him. Out of the nine kickers listed above, six will reappear in this years Top-12.
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Deciphering
Daniel Carlson, Evan McPherson, Justin Tucker, Tyler Bass, Dustin Hopkins and Greg Joseph are the kickers I am the most confident in repeating, All of these kickers have a similar cast and offensive structure, leading to minimal scoring disruption. Out of all the names above Joseph is likely to be the most easily attainable from the list. Chris Boswell and Jake Elliot are the two I think are least likely to repeat, Boswell is taking a seat on the Mitch Trubisky ride. While, Elliot I believe is going to be apart of a slower paced Eagles offense.
The kickers who were not in last years Top-12 but still had a median over average were: Rodrigo Blankenship, Greg Zuerlein, Michael Badgley, Cairo Santos, Matthew Amendola and Brian Johnson. Blankenship is the only name that I find incentivizing, having only played 5 games last year and will benefit from a moderate upgrade at quarterback. I anticipate the offense to be more prolific this year.
Illuminating
Thanks to Going for 2’s ADP found here I am able to create a small tier breakdown based on value and upside. The kicker position in the Scott Fish Bowl is not going to give any league winners but this year you’re playing against the field as well as a weekly opponent. Which means the flex positions are going to carry even more weight since a few points may dictate if you are above or below the weekly median scoring. That is where the kickers are going to bolster managers, offering reinforcement to rosters when injury inevitably strikes. I am planning on leaving my draft with three kickers, this gives me flexibility on which kicker to play when needed to be put into my lineup. The “R” signifies round and “K” signifies when that kicker was drafted.
Tier 1: D Carlson (R14, K3), T Bass (R17, K4), E McPherson (R14, K1), J Tucker (R14, K2), G Joseph (K12), D Hopkins (K15)
Tier 2: H Butker (K14), R Blankenship (K11), B McManus (K10)
Tier 3: J Sanders (K9), R Succop (K16), M Gay/C Dicker (K5, K14)
Most of these kickers are lumped in rounds 16-20, I anticipate that to change with the actual draft. Once you are past round 12 and the board is looking back at you, mimicking your blank stare, it’s time to start selecting kickers. Good Luck and don’t forget to donate to Fantasy Cares!
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