Whilst Tyler Johnson has been getting a lot of attention after dominating college football at Minnesota, it’s second-year player Scotty Miller who is the diamond on the Buccaneers’ roster. He’s a speedy WR3 on a pass-happy team with a G.O.A.T at QB, and a “no risk it, no biscuit” coach in Bruce Arians. Miller is also only 22 years old with plenty of room to grow after a promising rookie campaign. He is a name to keep in mind in your dynasty fantasy football leagues.
Undersized at 5-11 and 174-pounds, Miller has elite speed and agility, posting a sub 4.4 forty and 4.02 shuttle time on his pro day. Selected in the sixth round of the 2019 NFL Draft, the former Bowling Green Falcon played only 180 snaps last season. 200 yards on 13 receptions isn’t eye-popping, but it is promising. In Week 15, with only 15.5-percent of the snaps, he scored 13.9 fantasy points in PPR scoring. High potential and strong production are reasons to stash Scotty Miller on your bench in dynasty.
Scotty Miller is a Fantasy Football Diamond
With Breshad Perriman leaving for the Jets, the deep threat role is up for grabs in Bruce Arians’ vertical passing scheme. Despite being known as a slot receiver, Scotty Miller only lined up in the slot 33.3-percent of the time, according to RotoWire. His speed is an advantage when competing for taking over that role.
The addition of Tyler Johnson has convinced people that he would be competing directly with Miller for snaps in the slot. Truly, it’s Justin Watson who should be worried. Nearly half of his snaps came in the slot, with seven-percent coming from lining up in the backfield. Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Ronald Jones, and Raymond Calais will take those backfield snaps from Watson, and Johnson will compete for slot snaps when Chris Godwin moves outside.
Perriman played 645 snaps last season, with 371 coming outside and 236 in the slot. Expect Miller to claim the majority of the snaps outside. Playing with Godwin helps create opportunities for Miller to get on the field as Godwin lined up in the slot over 60-percent of the time. Johnson is a well-rounded slot receiver that is great at winning contested catches. Unfortunately, Godwin is the defacto slot. Johnson needs an x-factor to get on to the field. Miller has one. Pure, raw speed.
What About all of Tampa Bay’s Weapons?
The addition of Gronk will steal red zone touches and targets from everyone. Only OJ Howard, Cameron Brate, and anyone not named Chris Godwin or Mike Evans who plays in the slot should be worried though. Even if the Buccaneers use 12 personnel as their base, a significant amount of plays will include three or more receivers. Even the Eagles, who used 12 personnel over 50-percent of the time, had three receivers or more out on the field 40-percent of the time.
"That's our base offense," Arians says of "12 personnel," with two tight ends on the field. Says he even likes 13 with a third tight end. Expect more of that from Bucs, as we've written this spring …
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) June 4, 2020
Arians’ offense is generally not a TE-friendly offense, with the only tight-end playing for him to be targeted over 75 times being Heath Miller in 2009. Last year, Howard and Brate combined for 108 targets. Adding in Gronk would reduce Brate’s touches and push the total tight end targets up to around 150. This leaves over 200 targets remaining after accounting for Evans and Godwin.
Miller will take a share of targets similar to how Perriman did last year, hovering around 70 targets on the year. Watson, Johnson, and the running backs are left to fight over 130 targets. Miller will get on the field more often than Johnson in 2020. WR3s on Arians’ teams have averaged 73.25 targets over his last four years. One of those WR3s was another speed demon, John Brown.
Only 70 targets is a low-ball projection considering Miller was targeted every seventh snap he played on average. The only player at a similar rate of snaps per target on the Buccaneers’ roster is Evans. With Perriman’s snaps, Miller would have had 93 targets on the year.
I’m not projecting Miller to take a lions’ share of targets, I’m actually expecting him to be the fourth highest targeted player on the team. However, with 15.4 yards-per-reception and top-tier athleticism, he’ll be able to shine without a high amount of volume. Torching Eli Apple is only the start.
It is Hard to Argue Against the Talent
Miller wasn’t invited to the 2019 NFL Combine, but he showed out at his pro day. He displayed strength, agility, and most importantly, speed. Players with similar performances to Miller are Tyler Lockett, DeSean Jackson, Tavon Austin, and T.Y Hilton. A talented group who have all carved out roles in the NFL using their speed as their strength.
Hilton is a great pro-comparison for Miller. Both came from small schools and have a similar college dominator score and college target share. As an undersized player, Hilton has found success playing on the outside, using his speed and shiftiness to burn defenders on the regular.
A three-year starter at Bowling Green, Miller broke out in his sophomore year. From his second year to his senior, he scored 23 TDs and racked up 2,838 yards at 13.6 yards-per-reception. The now Buccaneers’ receiver showcased an ability to be a featured target at Bowling Green, catching 13 balls for 166 yards against Oregon in their season opener.
With his combination of explosiveness and quickness, he’s a nightmare for opposing cornerbacks. When defenses face the Buccaneers, their top two cornerbacks will be focused on Evans and Godwin. Miller can burn even some of the most elite NFL athletes, so third-string cornerbacks better hope they have safety help.
Projections
Miller is currently going as WR151 in Dynasty according to Fantasy Pros. Thankfully, over here at Yards Per Fantasy we see his value and have him as our WR 118 in Dynasty.
Stuck behind two elite receivers isn’t ideal for Miller’s 2020 stats, but expect him to have some flex appeal in 2020, similar to Perriman who exploded at the end of the season when the Buccaneers’ star receivers got hurt. Check out Zareh Kantzabedian’s article for more on Perriman.
Miller is a great player to have on your bench in dynasty as whenever Godwin or Evans misses time, expect the speedster to see more opportunities to dazzle. On a rookie contract for three more years, he’s a great value for both the Buccaneers and dynasty owners. A tight-end heavy focus this year could hurt his stats, but Miller is part of the future.
Pick him up in the later rounds of a dynasty draft. I got him at 27.11 myself in a 14-team dynasty startup. Tom Brady still has a relatively strong arm, and throw dimes. He also loves his undersized white receivers. Miller’s value will never be lower again.
2020 Projections:
70 targets at a 57.5-percent catch rate = 40 receptions
40 receptions at 15 yards per reception = 600 yards
Touchdowns will be tough to predict but with his home-run ability and an increase in snaps = 3 touchdowns
This would have ranked Miller as WR62 in 2019 PPR leagues. Considering that’s his floor and he has room to grow, at his current ADP, he’s a steal.
He’s a diamond in the rough. I’d recommend not waiting for him to break out as his value will skyrocket. Take him and you’ll look nearly as smart as the people who picked up Cam Newton before he joined the Patriots.
