Rookie Stock Take: Preseason Values Check
Football is finally here and the first game is about to kick off. The time for conjecture and prediction is almost over and we’re about to really see who gets on the field for their teams.
The rookies in particular have been vying for a starting spot through an unusual offseason and have not had pre-season games to show they can do it on a real football field. Who knows what current NFL stars would have struggled for starting snaps if they hadn’t been able to showcase themselves in pre-season games. Who knows which rookies will never get their true shot because they declared for the draft in 2020 and not 2019.
But many will get their shot and many will hit big. It might be straight away like Josh Jacobs last year or it might be a gradual increase in snaps like AJ Brown. With that in mind, I’m going to take a weekly look at the rookie, their playing time, their touches, their targets, etc., and see who’s values are trending up, who is trending down and who is going nowhere.
Find The Best Rookie Values In Our Rankings!
Week one is going to be a little bit different. Week one is going to be an attempt to predict what will happen, in the absence of actual data to assess.
I’m focusing initially on the rookies drafted in the first four rounds of the 2020 NFL draft. The players drafted after that point are largely irrelevant at this stage but there are a few interesting names that could emerge (particularly some of the wide receivers). If and when they start to become relevant, I’ll incorporate them then.
Let’s get in to it.
Week One Starters
Let’s start with the players that we’re confident will get reasonable playing time in week one for their teams.
Quarterback
- Joe Burrow
No doubts here. Burrow was drafted first overall and has been the presumptive week one starter since the moment he received that phone call. It may take some time for him to settle in but he’s one of the most exciting quarterback prospects in recent times and has some great weapons to throw to. A low-end starter for your fantasy team to kick off the year.
Running Back
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Jonathan Taylor
- Cam Akers
- Antonio Gibson
- Zack Moss
- Joshua Kelley
Running back is where we see the highest values among rookies. Edwards-Helaire is likely to a see significant role from the start. Don’t panic if Darrel Williams gets the first carry or first backfield target but CEH will take over pretty quickly and will be top of this list to start the year.
Akers is in a time-share in LA but Darrell Henderson looks like he may miss out in week one, which will boost Akers’ chance of touches. That said, Malcolm Brown currently appears to be the presumptive starter and will take a significant portion of the backfield touches. Akers will get plenty of opportunity and, with Henderson out, this might be his best chance to set himself apart from his teammates.
Gibson just got a HUGE boost with Washington cutting Adrian Peterson, but this backfield is still messy and it’s still in Washington. There’s a lot of buzz and excitement about Gibson leading the way but realistically his role is one that develops and increases over time. He absolutely gets touches in week one though.
Moss is another guy with plenty of training camp buzz. He was always going to have a role sharing this backfield with Singletary and was definitely going to see touches from the off. Based on the word from training camp, he might get a bigger portion of those backfield touches than originally anticipated.
Kelley is the least certain of this group. He is expected to get some work but is definitely behind Austin Ekeler in the pecking order and is likely to need to battle Justin Jackson for touches. I still see him getting week one touches but they may be a lot more limited than the others listed here.
Wide Receiver
- Henry Ruggs
- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Michael Pittman Jr
- Laviska Shenault
- Bryan Edwards
This whole group looks like they’ll be getting significant playing time right from the first kick off. Ruggs was taken with high draft capital in an offense devoid of established receivers. Hunter Renfrow will likely start in the slot but with Tyrell Williams on IR, Ruggs is set for a substantial snap share and Derek Carr will be looking to get him open so he can make plays after the catch.
Jeudy again goes in to a receiving corps without significant options to choose from. A highly touted prospect taken in the first round of the draft, Jeudy is likely to see single coverage while teams double-team Courtland Sutton, and may see a large amount of work from the slot.
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Lamb is in a much more crowded receiving room but one that has plenty of targets and an empty slot position that saw 83 targets to Randall Cobb last year and 87 to Cole Beasley the year before. With a creative play-caller in a dynamic offense, don’t be surprised to see Lamb on the field a lot in week one, and don’t be surprised if he’s moving around the field to create defensive mismatches.
Pittman is the big-body outside receiver that will look to bring some balance to this passing attack, opposite TY Hilton and with Parris Campbell playing out of the slot. Rivers isn’t afraid to throw the ball up and Pittman will be relied on in those contested catch situations.
Related | Player Preview: Michael Pittman Jr.
With Fournette’s shock departure and the dreadful Jacksonville defense, they’re going to need to throw it A LOT. Chark will be the main focal point and there’s a few other capable receivers in this offense but Shenault will bring an extra edge to the attack and there’s plenty of targets to go around.
Edwards has had a cult following since the draft and many believe he would have been a higher pick if not for his injury prior to the combine. He’s shown that in training camp, and now with Tyrell Williams out on IR, he’s the outside receiver from day one and will see significant snap share and targets.
Injury Issues
This group were likely to get week one snaps, and some of them significant. But injury issues are likely to limit them for at least the first week.
- D’Andre Swift (RB)
- Jalen Reagor (WR)
- Brandon Aiyuk (WR)
- KJ Hamler (WR)
- Denzel Mims (WR)
For Swift, it’s unclear at this stage if he will play week one but we do know he’s missed significant practice time over the past few weeks (the Lions just picked up Adrian Peterson so hopefully that isn’t a sign of Swift’s injury status). Likewise with Aiyuk who is expected to return to practice but in an unknown capacity at this stage, and Mims who has declared himself available after also missing time with a hamstring injury.
Related | Don’t Sleep on D’Andre Swift
Reagor is likely to be out for a number of weeks with a shoulder injury, and Hamler is hoping to avoid IR with a hamstring injury.
Longer-term play with early question marks
This group are probably going to see some snaps to start the year but their roles may be somewhat limited or at this stage are just plain unknown. That makes their preseason rookie values difficult to determine.
- Justin Jefferson (WR)
- Tee Higgins (WR)
- Chase Claypool (WR)
- JK Dobbins (RB)
- Van Jefferson (WR)
- AJ Dillon (RB)
- Lynn Bowden (RB)
- Devin Duvernay (WR)
- Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR)
Justin Jefferson was a first round pick with a lot of buzz that was expected to take significant target share in the Vikings offense. But reports from camp are not great and he appears to be behind Bisi Johnson in the pecking order on a team that likes to run heavy 12 personnel.
Tee Higgins is fighting for time with A.J. Green and camp darling Auden Tate for those outside targets. Not to mention John Ross, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon.
Claypool, Duvernay and Gandy-Golden all have an opportunity to play a part for the Steelers, Ravens and Football Team respectively, but they aren’t high on the depth chart just yet and may see limited time to begin the year.
Get To Know The 2020 Rookie Class
The final receiver in this list, Van Jefferson, has received great reports out of training camp and has supposedly put himself above Josh Reynolds as the third receiver in this team. If he can establish an outside role, that could put him in great shape to see more time when the Rams run 12 personnel.
JK Dobbins is the heir apparent in Baltimore but Mark Ingram is the starter in this backfield and Gus Edwards is not going to go away. Oh, and their quarterback is pretty handy running the ball too. I’ll be watching him closely to see how his snap shares progress but not expecting too much to start the year.
AJ Dillon is in a three-horse backfield. But, his coach comes from the Derrick Henry school of offense, so expect to see Dillon getting some early-down pounding work. His role could grow as the year goes on but he’ll start the season behind Aaron Jones and probably Jamaal Williams too.
Lynn Bowden is a wild card here. After a lackluster performance in training camp, he’s been traded to the Dolphins. Miami will use him as a wide receiver rather than a running back. They’re definitely short in that department so we could see his role develop, but there’s not much time for him to get up to speed and assimilate to playing as an NFL wide receiver straight away.
Potential late season plays
- Tua Tagovailoa (QB)
- Justin Herbert (QB)
These are pretty easy. They’re not starting the season and, unless there’s an injury, they aren’t going to see reps outside of a late-game blow-out situation. It will all depend on how their teams are doing as to when they come in to play. For Tua, he’ll get some game time if Fitzmagic isn’t firing on all cylinders and the Dolphins are struggling. For Herbert, you’d expect it to be unlikely he’ll see games before the Chargers are out of the playoff race.
Backup – Not this year without an injury
- Jordan Love (QB)
- Jalen Hurts (QB)
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB)
- Darrynton Evans (RB)
- La’Mical Perine (RB)
- Jacob Eason (QB)
- Anthony McFarland Jr (RB)
- James Morgan (QB)
- Gabriel Davis (WR)
- DeeJay Dallas (RB)
These guys are straight-up back-ups. Sure, some of them might get a few snaps here and there, a few carries here and there, a few targets here and there, but unless the starters ahead of them get injured, they’re not going to be relevant.
That said, I’m keeping on eye on some of the backfields in particular to see if they start to get mixed in more, take on a role as a satellite back, or work their way up the depth chart. That’s how we see rookie running back values skyrocket in year-one. So it’s important to monitor these guys.
Special Tight End category
- Devin Asiasi
- Cole Kmet
- Josiah Deguara
- Dalton Keene
- Adam Trautman
- Harrison Bryant
- Albert Okwuegbunam
- Colby Parkinson
- Brycen Hopkins
I’m not even going to try and wade through the tight end mess to work out who is going to get what playing time at this stage. Some of these guys will see some time on the field straight away but with few targets. Others will get mixed in on a less than regular basis. What’s safe to say, though, is that tight ends have a lot to learn and don’t make an impact in year one unless they’re a special talent. I don’t believe any of these guys fit into that category.
Albert Okwuegbunam could find his way on the field in two tight-end sets. Trautman will look to learn the job from Cook. Hopkins finds himself in a tight end heavy scheme, and who knows what Bill Belichick will do with the Patriots guys.
I’ll be tracking their playing time, routes run and targets. But I’m not expecting anything significant from any of them in year one.
Week One
Rookie values fluctuate week-to-week so I’ll be revisiting these guys every week. We’ll track how they’re shaping up in their depth charts, how their snap shares are developing, how their touches and targets are changing and whether there’s any indications of an increasing role to buy into.
To week one! Don’t forget to check back next week to see how these rookie values changed.
