The rookie class came back down to earth in week 2 after strong performances in the season openers. Rookies starting this early in the season are expected to struggle, so don’t let a few ugly numbers get you down about their outlook this season. Not all rookies will find success, so breaking down their performances is imperative in predicting who will falter and who will breakout. Rookies featured in this report will qualify by achieving one of the following:
- 30 percent offensive snap share
- Scoring a touchdown
- Special circumstance
- i.e. high draft capital, relevant production despite snap share, unforeseen playing time due to game script, injury, etc.
The report will be organized in order of snap share percentage; ties granted to draft position. Offensive snap share statistics are derived from footballoutsiders.com, and player statistics, including PFF grades, are pulled from PFF’s Premium Stats. Positional rankings for the week will be included, as will points scored, each from Fantasy Pros. The most recent game will be discussed in the Overview section, while the Outlook will give a glimpse of how to value the player moving forward.
Running Backs
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 2: 19.1 PPR fantasy points (RB7)
Week 2 Statistics: 95% snap share, 10 rush, 38 yards, 3.8 YPC, 5 targets, 5 receptions, 43 yards, 1 TD
Week 2 PFF Grade: 63.5
Overview: After a down week 1, Najee Harris put on a show for fans and fantasy managers alike in week 2. Harris scored his first NFL touchdown in the fourth quarter on a crucial third down in Raiders territory. Harris ran a beautiful route out of the backfield, shaking the linebacker and managing to keep his balance while turning upfield and shedding a tackle. Harris attained the highest QB Passer Rating when targeted of all backs (minimum two targets) in week 2.
First time in the end zone for @ohthatsNajee22!
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/W4wvAuZ6JW
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) September 19, 2021
Harris had a special day with the intangibles as well, registering the highest PFF pass block grade among all backs in the league (84.8). Strong pass protection abilities will keep his snap share high. More time on the field means more fantasy scoring opportunities.
Harris’ role in the passing game didn’t stop in the backfield. Harris led all backs in slot snaps in week 2 with seven. In fact, the Alabama product finished third among all running backs in fantasy points from receiving production, behind Aaron Jones (three receiving TDs) and Cordarrelle Patterson (transitioned WR).
Outlook: Najee Harris has weekly RB1 upside. In order to approach his ceiling, Harris will need to find production in the pass game – a heavy aspect of the Steelers attack. He can make highlight plays, but his current yard per carry average (3.2) is what we can expect all season. It doesn’t appear the Steelers O-line will improve any time soon, so Harris will have to create yards for himself.
NAJEE HARRIS WITH THE GROWN MAN STIFF-ARM 🤯
(via @thecheckdown)pic.twitter.com/Qmu8ZlkMod
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 19, 2021
Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers, Week 2: 7.3 PPR fantasy points (RB36)
Week 2 Statistics: 61% snap share, 17 rush, 42 yards, 2.5 YPC, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 11 yards
Week 2 PFF Grade: 58.0
Overview: Mitchell’s production in week 2 took a dip from his impressive debut. Mitchell got involved in the pass game this week with two targets, which is more than can be said for last week’s zero. The Eagles defensive front keyed in to stop the run game from the start, controlling the line of scrimmage all game. It appeared as though Kyle Shanahan wanted to switch his focus to a power-run approach after Mitchell was stuffed on a goal line carry, giving work to JaMycal Hasty and Trey Sermon.
On 19 touches, Mitchell forced just two missed tackles in week 2, compared to six the week prior. His elusiveness rating dropped by over 100 points. His yards after contact was cut by over half. This is certainly a game Mitchell will want to bounce back from.
Outlook: Elijah Mitchell was underwhelming in his second professional appearance. Once again, he finds himself in a favorable fantasy role this week, as the running back depth around him has been depleted due to injury. Ironically, Mitchell sustained an injury as well. It is not expected to keep him off the field on Sunday, but he is expected to miss practice this week. I’m still in on Mitchell serving as RB2 this week, even if his role is more limited.
The lead behind Mitchell, to my best guess, is Trent Cannon; although it could very well be Kerryon Johnson or Jacques Patrick. Kyle’s Shanahanigans will keep us guessing all year long.
Michael Carter, New York Jets, Week 2: 10.8 PPR fantasy points (RB24)
Week 2 Statistics: 45% snap share, 11 rush, 59 yards, 5.4 YPC, 3 targets, 2 receptions, 29 yards
Week 2 PFF Grade: 68.7
Overview: Michael Carter was the only Jets running back to see a target in week 2. He had one less carry than Ty Johnson, who led the team, but was over a yard per carry more efficient. Carter was involved in the game plan each quarter, getting the bulk of his work in the second and fourth. Showing formidable balance, vision, burst, and strength with the ball in his hands, Carter finished 10th in yards after contact per carry (YCO/A) among backs with double digit carries in week 2. He was the lone bright spot on a dark day for the Jets offense.
Michael Carter breaking all the tackles. #TakeFlight
📺: #NEvsNYJ on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/gbemrhnZUe— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2021
Outlook: Through two weeks, Michael Carter is ninth among all backs in yards per touch (6.0), seventh in Player Profiler’s juke rate metric (33.3%), and second in yards per reception (14.3), per Player Profiler. So long as the Jets continue to trail games (which they will), Carter will be the runner to roster in this backfield, but the dividends won’t come until he takes carries away from Ty Johnson.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos, Week 2: 8.4 PPR fantasy points (RB34)
Week 2 Statistics: 41% snap share, 13 rush, 64 yards, 4.9 YPC, 1 target, 1 reception, 10 yards
Week 2 PFF Grade: 81.9
Overview: Javonte Williams finished week 2 with the fifth-best PFF grade among all backs in the NFL. His snap share decreased, but his productivity increased. We can chalk up part of his efficiency spike to the fact that he played the Jags, but Williams looked impressive by any standards.
Williams, as I mentioned last week, made waves at UNC for his ability to force missed tackles. That has continued seamlessly at the professional level:
Most forced missed tackles per carry through two weeks (PFF)
1. Nick Chubb (0.54)
2. Javonte Williams (0.41) 👀— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 21, 2021
Javonte Williams is so fun to watch. Dudes absolutely melt off him, and his contact balance defies the laws of physics. I am so eager to see what this kid can do when he gets a backfield to himself.
Javonte Williams is a BOSS.
That’s all.
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/Xly8rn6kOG
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) September 19, 2021
Outlook: Williams lost touches to Melvin Gordon this week, but that shouldn’t be of much concern. The usage was split close to even all game, including ‘garbage time’ in the fourth quarter. Teddy Bridgewater’s presence is good for Williams’ (and Gordon’s) outlook, as he forces defense to show light boxes to check runs into. Williams currently ranks 15th among running backs in run rate facing light (six defenders or fewer) boxes, per Player Profiler. The Broncos host the Jets this Sunday. It won’t be any more of an opportunity for Williams to breakout than the previous weeks, but a positive game script will give him enough opportunities to justify a FLEX option.
Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles, Week 2: 7.2 PPR fantasy points (RB37)
Week 2 Statistics: 33% snap share, 6 rush, 14 yards, 2.3 YPC, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 18 yards
Week 2 PFF Grade: 73.2
Overview: The Kenny Gainwell hype train slid to down reality for fantasy footballers across all platforms this past weekend. After two red zone carries in week one, Gainwell did not have a red zone touch in week 2. Although, Gainwell was called upon for a two-point conversion attempt late in the fourth quarter, which he converted.
Nick Sirianni, in attempt to throw the defense off balance and take advantage of personnel groupings, went no huddle with his offense seemingly at random. When Gainwell was featured in the no huddle offense, he came in relief for Miles Sanders, whose first down runs jumpstarted the no huddle approach. Sirianni’s no huddle offense focused on running with Jalen Hurts and whichever back was subbed in. Sirianni incorporating no huddle gives Gainwell more snap opportunities in run-efficient groupings when Sanders calls for a breather.
Outlook: This is Miles Sanders’ backfield. Gainwell is assuming an expanded Darren Sproles role, finding the majority of his usage in pass situations and formations. To head coach Nick Sirianni’s credit, Gainwell’s role is suited well for him. Most 5-8, 200-pound backs aren’t going to bulldoze through defenders, so running into light boxes allows them to find success. Through the first two weeks, Gainwell ranks third in Player Profiler’s light box carry rate (86.7-percent of carries).
Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers, Week 2: 0.8 PPR fantasy points (RB74)
Week 2 Statistics: 1% snap share, 1 rush, 8 yards, 8.0 YPC
Week 2 PFF Grade: 64.8
Overview: Trey Sermon finally got his opportunity in the fourth quarter of week two… only to go right back to the sideline with an injury. For what it’s worth, his run looked strong.
Outlook: The fantasy football community fading Raheem Mostert for Trey Sermon due to injury history was ironic. The last time we saw Sermon, he suffered a shoulder injury on his first carry of the National Championship. The season prior, Sermon suffered a season-ending knee injury in early November. Sermon is now in concussion protocol, expected to be on limited reps in practice this week. His availability for week 3 is yet to be determined.
Demetric Felton, Cleveland Browns, Week 2: 13.1 PPR fantasy points (RB18)
Week 2 Statistics: 5% snap share, 0 rush, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 51 yards, 1 TD
Week 2 PFF Grade: 98.7
Overview: Felton is a hybrid RB/WR. Most fantasy platforms recognize him as a running back, so I will comply with that for roster purposes. With injuries to Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, Felton saw a slim chance to make a difference offensively, and he shined.
On just three offensive snaps, Felton totaled 55 yards after the catch (YAC) on two receptions, including a 33-yard touchdown catch and run. His stat line alone is exciting, but the tape is pure electricity.
DEMETRIC FELTON JR. 😱 @demetricfelton7 #Browns
📺: #HOUvsCLE on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/OgRd3SyD3R— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2021
Outlook: Felton is Cleveland’s return specialist and gadget player when needed. He can’t produce much outside of screen passes, and won’t see offensive snaps outside of special circumstances. He’s a deep dynasty play to monitor.
