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Football. Is. BACK.
In this weekly report, I will be breaking down rookie utilization and performances, and determining their outlook moving forward. After doing research to find what offensive snap percentage yields fantasy relevancy, I have determined rookies to make the report will qualify by achieving one of the following:
- 30 percent offensive snap share
- Scoring a touchdown
- Special circumstance
- i.e. high draft capital, relevant production despite snap share, unforeseen playing time due to game script, injury, etc.
The report will be organized by position, listing players in order of their snap share percentage; ties granted to draft position. Offensive snap share statistics are derived from footballoutsiders.com, and player statistics, including PFF grades, are pulled from PFF’s Premium Stats. Positional rankings for the week will be included, as will points scored, each from Fantasy Pros. The most recent game will be discussed in the Overview section, while the Outlook will give a glimpse of how to value the player moving forward.
Now… on to the fun stuff!
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence (QB12), Jacksonville Jaguars: 22.08 fantasy points
Statistics: 28/51 (54.9%), 332 yards, 6.5 YPA, 3 TD, 3 Int, 8.7 aDoT, 1 rush, -2 yards
PFF Grade: 57.7
Overview: A disastrous negative game script gave Urban Meyer and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell a reason to pass 51 times in their season opener. They lacked play calling creativity, and Lawrence suffered as a result. The Jags dialed up play action on less than 20 percent of all drop backs, despite Trevor Lawrence’s 4.3 yards per attempt (YPA) increase when using play action. Additionally, all three of Lawrence’s picks came off drop backs without play action.
Trevor Lawrence was bad throwing intermediate (10-19 yard) routes on Sunday, accounting for 16 of his attempts. Of those 16 attempts, Lawrence completed only six passes (37.5 completion percentage) and threw two interceptions. This is an area of concern moving forward, as these throws are known to separate the Pros from the Joes at the professional level.
Reverting back to the game script, Houston’s defensive adjustments likely played a hand in Lawrence’s poor performance, specifically his aforementioned intermediate attempts. Lawrence was blitzed on less than 10 percent of his drop backs, being sacked one time in the contest. Shying away from the blitz allowed the defense to flood the secondary, taking away Lawrence’s downfield reads.
Lastly, when faced with pressure, the number one overall pick struggled mightily. Lawrence faced 13 pressures on Sunday, the league median in week one. When pressured, Lawrence went 6-for-12 for 4.8 yards per attempt, one interception, and a PFF Passing Grade of 45.5.
Outlook: Despite putting together some poor tape, Trevor Lawrence still landed inside the QB1 range, finishing as QB12 overall on the week. Lawrence is surrounded by a talented group of skill players – time will tell whether or not the play calling improves. Nonetheless, volume is king, and Lawrence will get a lot of it. He’s holding steady as a fringe QB1 moving forward.
Zach Wilson (QB16), New York Jets: 19.82 fantasy points
Statistics: 20/37 (54.1%), 258 yards, 7.0 YPA, 2 TD, 1 Int, 10.6 aDoT, 1 fumble
PFF Grade: 63.2
Overview: The second overall pick didn’t fair much better than the first in his NFL debut. Take a look at Zach Wilson’s first half numbers: 
The final two stats are the most interesting. Under normal circumstances, play action improves passing efficiency of quarterbacks. This was not the case for Zach Wilson on Sunday, who saw his yards per attempt decrease from 7.4 without play action to 4.7 with. Wilson completed two passes for 28 yards, and saw five pressures that resulted in two sacks on eight play action drop backs. Chasing Zach Wilson around the backfield was not exclusive to play action drop backs, as the Jets allowed the second-most pressures in the league, with 22.
The Jets didn’t put points on the board until the 1:35 mark of the third quarter, coming off a 22-yard scramble toss to a wide open Corey Davis in the back of the end zone. It wasn’t all bad for Wilson in week 1, however. He looked at his best throwing 10-plus yards downfield, registering 12.7 yards per attempt and both touchdowns on 13 throws.
Outlook: Zach Wilson’s first professional touchdown pass came with a caveat: Mekhi Becton was injured on the play, now out for four to six weeks. It’s easy to think Mike LeFleur will take advantage of Wilson’s sharp downfield throwing ability, which propelled his draft stock to the second overall pick, but the pass protection to create downfield opportunities isn’t there (even with Becton healthy). Wilson nearly threw back-to-back interceptions to Shaq Thompson in the second quarter (one was dropped), making it apparent that he still has to learn how to read and react to NFL defenses. If week 1 is any indication, the Jets offensive production will rely on Wilson’s ability to create plays and buy time. He’ll be stuck in the low-end QB2 territory in 2021.
Mac Jones (QB23), New England Patriots: 15.24 fantasy points
Statistics: 29/39 (74.4%), 281 yards, 7.2 YPA, 1 TD, 0 Int, 6.5 aDoT, 1 fumble
PFF Grade: 78.3
Overview: Introducing PFF’s Rookie of the Week. While his numbers don’t stand out, Jones displayed impeccable timing and impressive decision-making within Belichick’s quick-hitting offense. Jones took the underneath throws the Dolphins defense gave him all day, resulting in a low 6.5 average depth of target (aDoT) – eighth lowest among all starting quarterbacks. Mac Jones also had the sixth-lowest average time to throw among all starters, clocking in at 2.39. The Dolphins defense tried to get after him, calling 21 blitz plays on Jones’ 40 drop backs, but Jones’ reads were too quick for the pass rush, as the Dolphins were only able to generate six pressures with the blitz.
Belichick is a master of game planning, and will continue to make life easier on Mac Jones as the season progresses. In week 1, the game plan was to avoid throwing towards Xavien Howard at all costs. Mac Jones had three attempts in Howard’s direction, the most successful being a 9-yard completion with 6 yards coming after the catch.
Jones struggled in the red zone in his NFL premiere. The Patriots got bailed out by a questionable roughing the passer call on a third down sack, which resulted in an extra opportunity the offense capitalized on for Jones’ lone touchdown of the day. Other than his seven-yard touchdown pass, Jones went 0-for4 in the red zone, resulting in three red zone field goals for the Patriots. Once the defense could put more of a focus on the shorter routes without having to worry about deep shots getting behind them, Mac Jones stalled.
Outlook: Mac Jones did well for himself opening up against a stout defense with arguably the best cornerback unit in the league. The strong offensive line and running back units for New England will keep the field open for Mac Jones this season, who possesses an excellent deep ball. After a panic-play on the Patriots first drive, Jones began to show what he was capable of. More experience with Belichick will allow Jones to climb up the QB2 ranks, but a lack of perimeter threats will keep him from seeing QB1 production.
If you still have questions about Mac Jones arm strength, this should answer it for you. Pressure in his face and throws a rope to the far hash to move the chains. He’s got plenty to get it done. The more you dive in, the more impressive Mac was vs. a top 5 defense. #Patriots pic.twitter.com/9X19O9KcIE
— Ryan Spagnoli (@Ryan_Spags) September 15, 2021
Justin Fields (QB31), Chicago Bears: 6.7 fantasy points
Statistics: 2/2 (100%), 10 yards, 3.0 aDoT, 1 rush, 3 yards, 1 TD
PFF Grade: 68.0
Overview: Fields came in as a reliever for Andy Dalton, seeing five snaps on Sunday night. His single rush came inside the five yard line and resulted in a touchdown that Fields made look easy. Aside from his rush, Fields had one play action screen pass for one yard, and a non-play action drop back for a nine-yard completion, with a seven-yard depth of target.
Outlook: The amount of noise pertaining to the Bears quarterback situation is unreal. Fans must believe that if they tweet loudly enough, Matt Nagy just might hear them. After a brutal offensive performance on Sunday night, the Bears starting quarterback for week 2 is still uncertain. Bill Lazor must have a chalk board full of plays he is waiting to unravel when Fields assumes the starting role. We saw a glimpse of it when Fields took snaps, adding motion and option looks we didn’t see with Dalton under center.
Trey Lance (QB33), San Francisco 49ers: 4.4 fantasy points
Statistics: 1/1 (100%), 5 yards, 1 TD, 3.0 aDoT, 3 rush, 2 yards
PFF Grade: 47.7
Overview: Like Fields, Lance came in as a secondary quarterback. Lance’s four snaps were much less of a necessity than Fields, as Lance threw one pass for a five-yard touchdown. Lance was not efficient running the ball in his limited sample, but keep in mind, Lance subbing into the game telegraphed a run for the defense. His running productivity will look much different when he makes his first start.
Outlook: Lance needs some time to make a drastic jump from FCS two years ago to the NFL today. Barring injury, Lance will be the number two option in a committee approach at best. Jimmy Garoppolo will hold Lance off the field if he stays as efficient as he did against Detroit this weekend, averaging 12.6 yards per attempt and an 81.8 adjusted completion percentage.
Running Backs
Najee Harris (RB45), Pittsburgh Steelers: 5.9 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 100% snap share, 16 rush, 45 yards, 2.8 YPC, 3 targets, 1 reception, 4 yards
PFF Grade: 55.4
Overview: It was tough sledding for the first back off the board in the 2021 draft. Najee Harris’ longest run of the game went for 18 yards, accounting for 40 percent of his total ground yardage in the game. His 2.8 yards per carry (YPC) was slightly off his 2.19 yards after contact per attempt (YCO/A), meaning the space he had to run through was marginal.
The Bills played a heavy amount of underneath zone coverage and stayed home on play action, daring the Steelers to throw deep. Keeping the linebackers up towards the line of scrimmage limited Harris as a receiver as well as a runner, not allowing him space to work with or without the ball. Harris saw two red zone targets, both inside the 10-yard line. His first target was thrown over his head. The second he caught and was tackled short of the goal line on third down.
Outlook: No player gets a 100 percent offensive snap share by accident. In fact, the last time we saw a running back on the field for every offensive snap was Christian McCaffrey in week 15 of 2019. Like McCaffrey, Najee Harris is a do-it-all back with excellent size and great ball skills. Harris will continue to get a heavy workload, but without an offensive line overhaul, his efficiency may not improve this season. Volume will keep him as a low-end RB1 moving forward.
Elijah Mitchell (RB15), San Francisco 49ers: 16.4 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 64% snap share, 19 rush, 104 yards, 5.5 YPC, 1 TD, 0 targets
PFF Grade: 63.4
Overview: In his rookie debut, Elijah Mitchell was thrusted into the lead role after Raheem Mostert went down with an injury in the first quarter. Mitchell made the most of his opportunity, rushing for the third-most yards (104) in week one, behind Joe Mixon (127) and David Montgomery (108). Mitchell posted a 121.3 PFF Elusiveness Rating, which “measures the effectiveness and impact of a runner with the ball independent of the blocking around him.” That mark was good for fourth-best on the week among backs with double digit carries, behind Chris Carson (256.9), Josh Jacobs (134.5) and Nick Chubb (127.1). To top off, Mitchell tied for second among all backs with six missed tackles forced.
Mitchell’s concerns came in pass protection, where he may lose opportunity after giving up a sack to the Lions defense. JaMycal Hasty was worse than Mitchell in week 1, so the threat in coming weeks will come from Trey Sermon.
Outlook: Back in March, I did a draft guide on all the running backs in the 2021 class. In my final rankings, Mitchell came in at fifth; Sermon sixth. If the emergence of Elijah Mitchell hasn’t made you aware of Kyle Shanahan’s complete lack of any real tendencies, I don’t know what will. For all we know, this could be a move to light a spark under Trey Sermon for the remainder of the season (which we can expect next week after Hasty struggled in pass protection and was given only one carry).
Other than my personal opinion that Mitchell is a better runner than Sermon, here is why I think this is Mitchell’s job to lose: Mitchell closely resembles the initial 49ers starting back, Raheem Mostert. Kyle Shanahan’s offense relies on a lot of movement, pre and post-snap, and getting his playmakers the ball in space. Mostert is a perfect fit for Shanahan as a stout 5-11, 205-pound back with an electric 4.31 40-yard dash. Mitchell is a 5-10, 201-pound back with a 4.35 40-yard dash. The two backs’ Player Profiler workout metrics are eerily similar as well (see below and note: Mostert’s 40 time is incorrect). The game plan in week 1 was to run with Mostert, so Mitchell filling in didn’t miss a beat.
Trey Sermon will likely compete with Jamycal Hasty for carries, as those two have a more powerful running style. With Mostert officially out for the year, Mitchell should be in line for another 15-touch week – at least as “in line” as Shanahan will allow.
Javonte Williams (RB48), Denver Broncos: 5.1 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 50% snap share, 14 rush, 45 yards, 3.2 YPC, 1 target, 1 reception, -4 yards
PFF Grade: 65.5
Overview: Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon split offensive snaps exactly down the middle: 50-50. Gordon finished as the RB1 this week, thanks to a 70-yard touchdown run, but Williams out-touched Gordon 15 to 14. Williams did not surpass Gordon’s touches until he was given the ball three consecutive plays on the final (garbage time) drive of the game. Each back had two red zone carries.
Williams made a name for himself in (NFL) draft season after forcing the most missed tackles on runs in 2021. That success continued in his professional opener, forcing four missed tackles against the Giants.
Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur displayed wisdom in his usage between the two backs. His focus with the rookie back was to get the ball to him on the outside, running only four of his attempts to the interior. On those four interior attempts, Williams averaged 2.75 yards per carry, compared to 10 carries to the outside averaging 3.4 yards per carry.
Outlook: I am infatuated with Williams’ talent, but the hype train of him getting a workhorse starting role needs to slow up a bit. Thrusting the rookie into such a role early this season is not what is best for the Denver offense, nor is it what is best for Javonte Williams. Williams is still capable of posting RB2 numbers when efficient, but banking on him as a RB1 is going to be more of a long play if Gordon stays healthy. Here is a thread I posted after twitter lost it’s mind over Williams being a healthy scratch in the final preseason game: 
Kenneth Gainwell (RB22), Philadelphia Eagles: 12.3 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 35% snap share, 9 rush, 37 yards, 4.1 YPC, 1 TD, 3 targets, 2 receptions, 6 yards
PFF Grade: 68.8
Overview: Kenneth Gainwell was a pleasant surprise in week 1, carving out a role even with a strong presence from lead back Miles Sanders. Sanders dominated the backfield in the first half, holding Gainwell off the field until the second drive in the second quarter.
In the third quarter, up 15-6 at the Falcons 20, head coach Nick Sirianni elected to go for it on fourth down and two to gain. Sirianni called a shotgun handoff to Gainwell, who came up one yard short. Although he didn’t convert, that is a valuable touch we can highlight for Gainwell. Sirianni reinforced his trust in the rook on the very next drive, handing him the ball in the red zone for an eight yard score.
Outlook: Gainwell comes with sneaky upside. The Eagles ran their two-minute offense once, coming just before the end of the first half. Gainwell saw two targets and two carries on that drive, and caught a 4-yard touchdown pass that got called back due to an ineligible man downfield. Unless the Eagles are far better than anticipated, they will find themselves in more passing situations than they did in week 1, which is good news for Kenneth Gainwell. When the game was still in the balance, it was the rookie who got the third quarter red zone carry and ran in the touchdown to pull his team away. He’s currently an RB3 with RB2 upside.
Michael Carter (RB58), New York Jets: 3.0 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 25% snap share, 4 rush, 6 yards, 1.5 YPC, 2 targets, 1 reception, 14 yards
PFF Grade: 43.6
Overview: Michael Carter played third fiddle to Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson in the Jets season opener, and Carter’s performance gave no reason to believe that will change. The fourth round rookie had the lowest yards per carry (1.5) and yards after contact per carry (1.5) among the three backs in rotation.
Known (and drafted) for his receiving skills, Carter registered a drop on two targets in his first game in an NFL uniform. Overall a disappointing outing for a player with as much offseason buzz as he’s had.
Outlook: Carter will have to make more of his opportunities if he wants to increase his playing time in a crowded Jets backfield. Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson haven’t made a whole lot of noise in recent memory, but they are talented enough to keep Carter buried on the depth chart. Carter produced well in a committee with Javonte Williams in college, so it’s possible he can win touches over the vets. Keep in mind, Carter fell to the third day of the NFL draft, and week 1 might have shown us why.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase (WR15), Cincinnati Bengals: 20.9 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 90% snap share, 7 targets, 5 receptions, 101 yards, 1 TD, 16.3 aDoT, 3.37 Y/RR, 1 rush, -2 yards
PFF Grade: 77.9
Overview: Fifth overall pick Ja’Marr Chase picked up right where he left off with Joe Burrow. Chase was the WR1 from the opening snap for the Bengals, accumulating a 90-percent snap share. The two next highest snap shares were, as expected, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, each with 74-percent. Chase silenced his preseason critics with his performance with the best stat of all: zero drops.
Chase had a magnificent 50-yard touchdown grab in the second quarter. Cornerback Mike Hughes gave him five yards of space off the line, in a deep zone coverage. When Chase realized Hughes’ eyes were on Burrow, he adjusted his route slightly towards the perimeter to place himself on Hughes’ backside and ran right past him. Burrow placed the ball to the outside, allowing Chase to hold his stack on Hughes, giving the defender no chance at making a play on the ball. Watch the replay. Masterful:
We couldn’t resist, we had to share this again. @JoeyB 🎯 @Real10jayy__ #TouchdownTuesday
NEXT: #CINvsCHI – 9/19 on FOX pic.twitter.com/PghN6N0b1z
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) September 14, 2021
Outlook: Chase looked sharp on Sunday, and more importantly, more polished than the last time we saw him at LSU. His route running was in question among draft critics, as he most relied on speed and winning contested catches in college. Chase’s intermediate routes on Sunday were some of the best he’s ever put on tape. Improved route running and a healthy 16.3 average depth of target will allow Chase to compete for a weekly WR2 spot in his first year as a pro. Here is Chase putting Patrick Peterson in the spin cycle:
Ja’Marr had the defense chasing ghosts 😈 @Real10jayy__ @Bengals
(h/t @JetPackGalileo) pic.twitter.com/1VEWJoiRBS
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) September 14, 2021
DeVonta Smith (WR19), Philadelphia Eagles: 19.1 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 87% snap share, 7 targets, 6 receptions, 71 yards, 1 TD, 8.6 aDoT, 1.92 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 75.3
Overview: Reigning Heisman Trophy winner, DeVonta Smith scored the first touchdown of the Eagles 2021 campaign on their opening drive. The Eagles kept their passing attack short; DeVonta Smith’s 8.6 average depth of target being the highest among the wideout unit. For reference, 8.6 ranked 54th among all wide receivers in week 1, per Player Profiler. Despite a low average depth, Smith still managed to do what he does best – line up out wide (92-percent of his pass snaps) and separate from defenders, creating an average of target separation of 2.13 yards, ranking 26th among all wide receivers.
DeVonta Smith saw all but one of his targets come in the first half. He was obviously part of Nick Sirianni’s script to begin the game, but the defense keyed in on the tenth overall pick as the game went on.
Outlook: Smith out-targeted the rest of the Eagles offensive weapons without moving around the formation much. He will be a focal part of Sirianni’s game plan moving forward, but sadly he won’t be going up against AJ Terrell every week. I am curious to see what happens in this offense when Philadelphia is trailing. Smith will be a matchup-dependent WR3/flex until he can prove otherwise.
Elijah Moore (WR120), New York Jets: 0.7 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 86% snap share, 4 targets, 1 reception, -3 yards, 22.08 aDoT, -0.08 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 49.9
Overview: You read that right. Despite an outrageous 22.08 yard average depth of target, Elijah Moore’s only reception of the day came four yards behind the line of scrimmage for a loss of three, gaining one yard after the catch (YAC).
Moore finished fifth in the target pecking order, and didn’t look to deserve anything better, creating a 1.5-yard target separation downfield, which should be an area he excels. His separation ranked 54th among all wide receivers.
Outlook: I was high on Elijah Moore in the offseason. He had a chance to prove himself this week with Jamison Crowder out, and he fell flat. We know he has the talent, but his high snap rate cross-examined by his 22.08 average depth of target, further considering one of his four targets had a depth of four yards behind the line (-4.0) – his outlook is not good. Corey Davis finished as the WR5 in week 1, proving it is possible for this offense to produce fantasy relevancy. I’ll keep my eye on him over the course of the season, but I’m not rostering him for the time being.
Jaylen Waddle (WR26), Miami Dolphins: 16.1 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 80% snap share, 5 targets, 4 receptions, 61 yards, 1 TD, 10.2 aDoT, 2.26 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 72.7
Overview: Jaylen Waddle flashed his worthiness of the sixth overall pick on Sunday afternoon. He ran 75-percent of his routes from the slot, the position he’ll look to command the remainder of this season. One drop, a tough ball that forced Waddle to fully extend for while running towards the boundary, hurt his grade. Waddle made up for it with a spectacular catch in one-on-one coverage, adjusting to a back shoulder jump-ball that attributed to his 133.3-percent “true catch rate,” which divides total receptions by total catchable targets, per Player Profiler. That helped him achieve a near-perfect passer rating when targeted with 157.1.
His touchdown was the score that won the game for the Dolphins, coming inside the five-yard line. Waddle lined up on the far left in a singleback bunch formation, and motioned towards the quarterback. Before crossing the quarterback, the ball was snapped and Waddle quickly flipped around, almost fell down, recovered and ran to the flat he was lined up on. He caught the ball around the line of scrimmage, broke a tackle, and beat the safety to the endzone by diving towards the pylon. That was his second recorded broken tackle of the game.
Jaylen Waddle took off and dove for his first NFL TD 🐬
(via @Dolphins)pic.twitter.com/Qo1mLLcCYd
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 12, 2021
Outlook: Waddle is the most dynamic player on this offense by a country mile. While the receiving unit as a whole in Miami is congested, it’s hard to believe the Fins would spend the capital to trade back up to draft him if they didn’t have intent to use him from the jump. I don’t see Fuller taking a whole lot away from Waddle, if anything, he should open things up for him as a vertical threat down the field with Waddle owning the slot underneath. Waddle’s 23 yards after the catch on Sunday should be around his floor. When it comes to fantasy relevancy, Waddle will float between WR2-WR4 range, depending on the impact plays he is able to make.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR91), Detroit Lions: 4.3 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 64% snap share, 3 targets, 2 receptions, 23 yards, 14.3 aDoT, 0.51 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 56.7
Overview: The Southern Cal rookie ran 92-percent of his routes from the slot in his debut with the Lions. Surprisingly, Amon-Ra St. Brown was not able to create any yards after his two catches.
Outlook: St. Brown did not make much of an impression Sunday, seeing both of his receptions come in the 16-point garbage time scoring spree after the two-minute warning. He was a complete after thought in a passing game that ran through two running backs and a tight end. If St. Brown wants to push for targets, he will have to establish himself as a perimeter threat, and that’s just not his game. The lion’s share of underneath targets will be dominated by Swift, Hockenson, and Williams.
Nico Collins (WR111), Houston Texans: 1.7 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 55% snap share, 3 targets, 1 reception, 7 yards, 9.0 aDoT, 0.26 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 50.9
Overview: Collins looked like he might have a promising season opener after the first drive. The pass fell incomplete, but he saw the first third down target of the Texans’ season.
At the end of the second quarter, Collins saw a red zone target from the two-yard line, but committed a pass interference penalty that backed up the Texans offense, causing them to stall and kick a field goal.
On the first third down of the second half, offensive coordinator Tim Kelly went back to Collins, this time converting for a first down. Collins saw his final target come on an incomplete pass in the fourth quarter.
Outlook: Collins was called upon once in each quarter against the Jaguars in week 1. His fantasy value was predicated on negative game scripts the Houston Texans will likely face all season, but that was not the case in his debut. For now, he’s a dynasty piece that could grow into a sustainable role over the course of the season.
Terrace Marshall Jr. (WR79), Carolina Panthers: 5.6 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 53% snap share, 6 targets, 3 receptions, 26 yards, 8.2 aDoT, 1.13 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 52.0
Overview: Terrace Marshall had a drop in his first contest as a pro, and registered the lowest PFF grade among all players with at least six targets in week 1.
On the bright side, he was able to create 5.0 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/Rec), and finished with an average target separation of 2.67 yards, 15th-best in the NFL’s opening slate. 
Outlook: With CMC healthy, there simply aren’t enough targets to go around to support four fantasy-relevant skill players. While Marshall seemed like the odd man out this week from a production standpoint, he was actually third in terms of opportunity, registering three more targets than Robby Anderson, whose only catch of the day was a 57-yard touchdown bomb. Of his six targets, only four of them were deemed catchable. Marshall’s quarterback situation isn’t improving any time soon, so he will need to find some chemistry with Sam Darnold in order to turn that opportunity into production.
Anthony Schwartz (WR51), Cleveland Browns: 11.6 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 53% snap share, 5 targets, 3 receptions, 69 yards, 24.4 aDoT, 4.06 Y/RR, 1 rush, 17 yards
PFF Grade: 82.2
Overview: Former Auburn speedster Anthony Schwartz had the most unexpected production of the 2021 draft class. He posted the highest PFF grade among all rookie fantasy prospects, and the tenth-highest air yards among all wide receivers, per Player Profiler. Schwartz led all Browns in first half targets with four. By process of elimination, his one remaining target came in the fourth quarter, falling incomplete.
In Kevin Stefanski’s offense, it is no surprise Schwartz was fabulous attacking zone coverage with his speed. The third round draft pick received two targets in zone coverage, yielding two receptions for 53 yards, and 5.89 yards per route run (Y/RR).
Stefanski using Anthony Schwartz to attack zone was apparent on the first play of the Browns’ second drive. Schwartz (bottom of screen) gets an inside release on the corner and makes a beeline for the safety lined in the box. The corner passes Schwartz off to the safety, who dropped into a deep zone for quarters coverage. Schwartz gets even with the safety and, without making a move, angles towards the boundary and sprints to open space created by Austin Hooper drawing the outside corner down with an out route underneath. Mayfield delivers a well-placed ball, but Schwartz bobbled it at the catch-point, forcing him to refocus and dive to secure the grab. Had he not juggled the catch, Schwartz might still be running. (excuse the misspelling of “Tyreek”)
Anthony Schwartz could be our Tyreke Hill 👀 #Browns. pic.twitter.com/0QQWxgw9mD
— Tyler Johnson (@T_johnson_TJ) September 14, 2021
Outlook: Schwartz likely got called into play with Odell Beckham Jr still nursing an injury. Stefanski took Schwartz out of red zone packages, which is a concern moving forward. Donavan Peoples-Jones and Jarvis Landry are likely to remain the red zone wideouts, each possessing physicality Schwartz cannot match. Stefanski is an offensive mastermind who has already shown what he can do with a vertical threat, but I’m afraid this will be the high-end of Schwartz’s scoring variance on the season. He’s an unpolished speed demon to keep your eye on.
Rondale Moore (WR52), Arizona Cardinals: 10.8 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 29% snap share, 5 targets, 4 receptions, 68 yards, 4.0 aDoT, 4.86 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 80.9
Overview: Rondale Moore had a low snap share, yet was highly productive when on the field. Kliff Kingsbury used him just as most expected: screens and touch passes to get Rondale in space. The undersized rookie only ran one of his 14 routes from out wide, and only had one of his five targets cross the line of scrimmage.
Rondale Moore had 64 yards after the catch on Sunday. With DeAndre Hopkins stretching the field, Kyler Murray offering a dual threat prowess, and Kliff Kingsbury calling plays, Moore finds himself in a favorable gadget role that will demand defense’s attention.
Outlook: It’s funny – watching Rondale Moore reminds me so much of Kyler Murray. The two of them can start a fire with the speed their legs move at, and each possess an uncanny ability to change direction in a blink. Rondale has some serious scoot to his game that will keep him relevant in the Arizona offense all season. For fantasy purposes, he won’t crack the WR3 range often, but he is an excellent dynasty stash or deep league addition.
Rondale Moore is just too much fun pic.twitter.com/5RchWuX3ly
— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) September 12, 2021
Kadarius Toney (WR110), New York Giants: 1.8 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 8% snap share, 2 targets, 2 receptions, -2 yards, -5.5 aDoT, -0.50 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 58.9
Overview: This is more comical than anything. Kadarius Toney’s debut featured a target behind the line of scrimmage on each of the Giants first two possessions, followed by a complete disappearance for the remainder of the game. Read his stat line back and consider this: Toney collected nine yards after the catch on his two receptions.
Call it getting Fangio’d. Call it the Jason Garrett affect. I call it funny.
Outlook: As long as Jason Garrett is calling plays, Toney may find himself as a high draft pick the coaching staff doesn’t know what to do with.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts (TE23), Atlanta Falcons: 7.1 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 68% snap share, 7 targets, 4 receptions, 31 yards, 6.4 aDoT, 1.0 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 58.9
Overview: This isn’t the start Pitts-truthers were hoping for, but there was more to like than his stat line indicates. Pitts consumed a 20-percent target share on the day, and finished seventh among all tight ends with 60 air yards.
Pitts lined up all over the field for new head coach Arthur Smith, giving fantasy managers plenty of opportunity to look forward to. Pitts had eight inline snaps, 10 snaps out wide, and 19 snaps in the slot. Mismatch nightmare confirmed.
Pitts struggled in his blocking snaps, which was to be expected with the college-to-NFL leap and won’t hurt his fantasy value.
Outlook: The good news is that Pitts is the second option in an offense that may pass close to 50 times a game. Keep in mind, Calvin Ridley posted a 5-51-0 stat line. Do you expect that to be the norm for Ridley all season? Whatever your answer, keep the same energy for Pitts. Arthur Smith will likely take a couple more weeks to figure out how to best utilize their fourth overall pick; don’t get too down on him just yet. Atlanta will be bad, but they won’t be this bad all season. I still have him as a TE1 on a weekly basis.
Pat Freiermuth (TE37), Pittsburgh Steelers: 3.4 PPR fantasy points
Statistics: 50% snap share, 1 target, 1 reception, 24 yards, 15.0 aDoT, 2.0 Y/RR
PFF Grade: 72.8
Overview: With only one target on the day, Pat Freiermuth’s main focus in his NFL debut was as a blocker, called upon 17 times to do so. He finished with a PFF Run Block grade of 73.5, ninth best among all tight ends in week 1; third best among qualifying tight ends with at least 15 snaps in a run blocking assignment. My favorite:
When Pat Freiermuth says it is time to leave the club, it’s time to leave the club #Steelers pic.twitter.com/GNx2mdoRsC
— Steelers Depot (@Steelersdepot) September 14, 2021
Freiermuth’s lone target and reception was a big one, coming on a second down and long that gave the Steelers a first down in Buffalo territory. This was a scoring drive that contributed to a 20-0 Steelers run.
Outlook: With all the hungry pass-catching mouths to feed in Pittsburgh, Freiermuth won’t see fantasy relevancy this season. He’s a perfect scheme fit for Tomlin, and he’ll have a nice season. Freiermuth ran one route from the slot, twice split out wide, and 10 inline. Stash Freiermuth in deeper dynasty leagues if you need depth at tight end.
