Looking Ahead: Which 2020 Rookie Wide Receivers Will Breakout In 2021?
So we’re about halfway through the season, and its been a wild one. Superstars have got injured, at all positions. Players like James Robinson and Myles Gaskin are fantasy football relevant. The level of uncertainty around is astounding. Despite this, if you’re a rebuilder in dynasty leagues, this article is for you.
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Its a commonly known phenomenon that wide receivers tend to breakout in their second season. With the season these rookies have had to endure, I believe that will be even more true than usual next season when they finally get to play in a normal season, hopefully. So, the question is, which of these rookie receivers will experience that sophomore season breakout?
Related | Week 9 Rookie Stock Take
Denzel Mims, WR, New York Jets
With a physical profile that is the definition of freakish athlete, Mims is our first candidate. In a previous article, I explained how he is a potential WR1 when you consider his elite athleticism along with his ball-skills. Out for half the season with injuries, Mims has only played two games, both of which have been under Adam Gase. We all know that Gase is not an offensive mastermind, despite what Peyton Manning has said. Despite playing on the worst team in the NFL, with a quarterback that legitimately is seeing ghosts, Mims has done admirably. With 42 receiving yards in both games, Mims has pulled in six of his ten targets so far. Whilst not able to do much after the catch, he’s shown the ability to get open, even against elite defenders such as Tre’Davious White.
In the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jets will end up going one of three ways. They select a quarterback like Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields or Trey Lance. They draft Penei Sewell, a monster of an offensive tackle. Or they add Ja’Marr Chase or Jaylen Waddle. In any of those ways, Mims benefits. With a better quarterback, he’ll get better balls. With a better o-line, Mims will have more time to burn defenders deep. And with better teammates, not named Braxton Berrios or Breshad Perriman, Mims will not be the focus point of opposing defenses. The future is bright for Mims who’s value has dropped under Gase.
After doing some exploratory cluster analysis, trying to find similar pro-comparisons to players based off their production and physical profile, I had some interesting results. One of those was Mims being eerily similar to Julio Jones. He’s somebody to watch for sure.
Action: Buy every share you can
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Again, the results from some exploratory cluster analysis gave me comparisons for Pittman. A few of these are AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, and the almighty Michael Thomas, not the Bengals poor man version. Big-bodied, relatively fast, and surprisingly agile athletes tend to become their teams leading receivers. Some dominate from Day One like Michael Thomas. Others explode onto the scene like Brandon Marshall.
Philip Rivers has not been kind to Michael Pittman. With only 13 targets in four games, his performance has been disappointing at best. After dominating NFL prospects in college, such as the majority of Utah’s secondary, it’ll take time to adjust to not being the most physically imposing player on the field each game. With an elite offensive line and the next Herschel Walker at running-back, Pittman will get plenty of opportunities to expose secondaries that bite on play-actions. Rivers arm talent is deteriorating, and the sooner they move on, the better for Pittman who has the tools to dominate in the NFL.
Action: Buy low
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
Claypool was someone I wanted to be high on, but the Steelers stacked receiving core scared me off. His athleticism is up there with the best, i.e Julio Jones, DK Metcalf, and Calvin Johnson. Built like a tight-end, he’s faster than the majority of receivers, and I feel bad for defensive-backs trying to tackle him. A legitimate red-zone threat, being used as the primary target in the red-zone, Claypool will have value on days when his volume is low.
Whilst the Steelers have a number of promising receivers, the rookie is by far the most tantalizing. The only issue with him is that nearly everybody else knows this. Claypool owners will want the world for him. If you can trade an aging veteran or two to a contender who has Claypool, then it’s worth a try, but no player is worth breaking the bank on so early.
Action: Buy, if the price is right.
