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We need to talk about a receiver who is being severely under drafted right now. This receiver was a WR1 before tearing his ACL last year, and now he’s going as a WR5. This receiver has absolutely no target competition aside from a rookie first round pick. This receiver has been extremely reliable in each of the past five seasons. That receiver’s name is Robert Woods.
Robert Woods in 2021
Woods’ ADP makes zero sense to me. Last year, despite missing eight games with a torn ACL, Woods finished as the WR51 in PPR scoring. During the time he was healthy, he was the WR12 in scoring. Despite Cooper Kupp having a historic season, Woods was still able to produce at a high-end level. I’d like to highlight some advanced stats courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com that show how reliable he was last year:
- #2 in snap share
- #4 in target separation
- #17 in expected fantasy points per game
- #18 in route win rate
- #19 in fantasy points per target
- #22 in fantasy points per route run
- #26 in average cushion
Do these metrics accurately reflect those of a 9th/10th round fantasy draft pick? I certainly don’t think so. This profiles as someone who should be going no later than the 6th round. Woods currently goes at 104.7/WR50 on Underdog, and 107.2/WR48 on DraftKings.
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Players Going Before Woods
Woods is drafted after players such as Russell Gage, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Allen Lazard, and Christian Kirk. Out of all the years they’ve been in the league, only ONE has had a single campaign as a top 30 WR, when Kirk was 26th in PPR scoring last year. Outside of that, none of them have even had a WR3 (top 36) finish. I get they’re all in better situations now, but none of them have proven to be as remotely close to reliable as Woods has in five straight seasons. Refer to the chart below to see where each WR finished in PPR scoring.
Woods’ Consistent Career
Since joining the Rams in 2017, Woods finished as a top 15 WR three times. As I mentioned, in 2021 he was 12th at the time of his injury, and in 2017 he finished 31st despite missing four games. That year, he still averaged 13.5 PPG, which was 19th in the league. In terms of PPG, he has been a top 20 WR in five straight seasons. There aren’t many receivers who can make that claim, and all of them go well before Woods does in drafts.
Looking Ahead to 2022
I fully recognize he is in a worse situation this season. He transitions from the pass-happy offense of the Rams to the Titans’ run-first offense. He goes from an MVP-level QB in Matt Stafford to a league-average QB in Ryan Tannehill. To top all of that off, he’s coming off his mid-season ACL tear. Here’s the thing, though: All of that is already baked into his price. It’s not like you’re taking a risk and drafting Woods at his ceiling here. He offers heavy upside and little downside. The only way he doesn’t pay off his price tag is if he gets hurt. That’s always a possibility for anyone in the league, however, and I’ll never try to predict injuries.
Woods’ Health
As far as his health is concerned, he seems to be a full go for week 1, according to Joe Rexrode of The Athletic. Woods himself seems optimistic about the whole process, as well: “Really, I am just trying to get back to playing at a high level. Being able to be out here and do what I am doing is really impressing me, being able to run on the side and seeing certain speeds that I am hitting, being able to trust my knee with some cuts. … I think I am really good, on pace. Being able to do some training on my own (is good), and really just being confident with where I’m at and being prepared and being ready. Obviously, we don’t know how long it is going to take and what could come up, but I’ll say right now we’re all on pace and doing good to be ready.” This was from almost a month ago, and he’s made strides sense. Click here if you wish to read the entire article from the Titans’ official site.
Woods’ QB Play & Reliability
Another concern some people have with Woods is his QB play. Ryan Tannehill may not be elite, but he’s no slouch. He was able to help A.J. Brown produce at a high level (when he could stay on the field), as Brown averaged 14.9 PPR PPG in his career with Tannehill. This includes games he played, but didn’t start, as well as games he got injured in and didn’t finish. Woods isn’t at the talent level of Brown, but you could argue he’s more valuable to the team because of his leadership, secure hands, and run blocking. The Rams clearly valued him when he was 2nd in the league among WR snap share. Kupp was actually ahead of him by 0.3% for the season, but in the time they played together, Woods played more than the Super Bowl MVP by four snaps (543 to 539). Woods’ run blocking is also elite among receivers, and you can bet your next paycheck Mike Vrabel will utilize that ability as much as he can for Derrick Henry. Ultimately, we want to roster players who will be on the field the most, and that’s what we’ll be getting with Woods. If you can consistently get open, catch targets, and run block well, any coach will play you as much as he can.
Woods’ Competition
Lastly, let’s examine the receivers Woods will compete with for snaps.
- Treylon Burks, 1st round rookie
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, 41 career catches
- Dez Fitzpatrick, 5 career catches
- Kyle Phillips, 5th round rookie
- Racey McMath, 2 career catches
- Cody Hollister, 10 career catches
- Mason Kinsey, 0 career catches
Be honest, how many of these names have you even heard of before? Between the seven of them, they have a combined 58 catches for 624 yards and 5 TDs. For reference, Woods has 570 catches, 7,077 receiving yards and 35 TDs in his career. It’s a no-brainer that Woods will start the season as the team’s top wideout. It’s possible Burks emerges as the WR1 later in the year given his talent and pedigree. However, reports are swirling that he may open as the WR3 behind Nick Westrbook-Ikhine, as Joe Rexrode also reported in the article I linked earlier. Who else is Tannehill going to throw to? I don’t think it’s out of the question for Woods to have a 25% or higher target share this year. After all, his share was 21.5% last season, with far more competition than he faces now. Additionally, the Titans have little talent at tight end as far as pass catching is concerned. Austin Hooper is a decent upgrade over the seemingly endless group of below-average tight ends the team used last year. (If you played Showdown on DraftKings for any Titans game, you know how frustrating that was.) Still, I don’t see Hooper as a threat to Woods. This situation is similar to those of Darnell Mooney and Brandin Cooks, but Woods has a better QB and is on a better offense than either.
Woods Wrap Up
With all of this in mind, I can’t stop drafting Woods at his ADP. There’s no reason he can’t finish as a top 25 WR this year, and he should be going at least 2-3 rounds earlier. I expect his price to rise some as we get more clarity on his health, and as he emerges as the true WR1 on the depth chart. Go out and get him while you can, and thank me later!
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