Wide Receiver Analytics: Identifying The Next Breakout
As we enter prime rookie analysis season, everyone seems to have an opinion, one way or another, on each prospect. But how do we know what analysis to trust and what is just noise? That’s what drove me to dive into the data and break down the anatomy of elite players at each position. In part one, we’ll dive into the analytics of a top-24 dynasty wide receiver and what makes them who they are.
See All Of Our Rookie Profiles Here!
Data Set
I used the current top-24 dynasty wide receivers for the initial data set.
Michael Thomas
DeAndre Hopkins
Chris Godwin
Davante Adams
Tyreek Hill
Amari Cooper
DJ Moore
Mike Evans
Kenny Golladay
Courtland Sutton
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Allen Robinson
DJ Chark
Stefon Diggs
Odell Beckham Jr
Tyler Boyd
DK Metcalf
AJ Brown
Julio Jones
Michael Gallup
Calvin Ridley
Keenan Allen
Deebo Samuel
Cooper Kupp
1. Draft Capital
The first thing we factor in is draft capital. Where were these players selected in the NFL Draft? Using the above data set, here is how the data looks:
First Round: 7 WRs
Second Round: 10 WRs
Third Round: 5 WRs
Fifth Round: 2 WRs
Rounds 6-7: 0 WRs
Undrafted: 0 WRs
When interpretting the results, it’s evident that being a day one or day two selection is basically a requirement. The two outliers are Stefon Diggs (who was injured at draft time, ACL) and Tyreek Hill. And we all know Hill’s outlier story.
Height
I wouldn’t normally think this is something worth mentioning, but check it out…
5’9” or shorter: 0 WRs
5’10” or 5’11”: 3 WRs
6’0” or 6’1”: 11 WRs
6’2” or taller: 10 WRs
It’s a small sample size obviously but the results are interesting for sure.
40 Time
We debate and hype 40 times all spring but how relevant is it really? This may surprise you:
4.39 or faster: 4 WRs
4.40 – 4.49: 8 WRs
4.50 – 4.59: 10 WRs
4.60 or slower: 2 WRs
Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, and Davante Adams are all in the upper 4.5’s. 40 time has a limiter, as you don’t want to see above a 4.6, but as long as the player is in the 4.4, 4.5 range we’re good.
College Dominator
For wide receivers and tight ends, the dominator rating is the percentage of team receiving production. There are a number of ways to measure this, we use playerprofiler.com. Here is what I found:
29 or less (below 50th percentile): 3 players
30 – 34 (50-66 %): 7 players
35-39 (67-80 %): 7 players
40 or more (80+ %): 7 players
From PlayerProfiler: “A 35+% dominator indicates that a wide receiver has the potential to be a team’s No. 1 WR and/or a high caliber contributor. 20-35% indicates a mid-level talent with situational upside. Less than 20% is a red flag.”
The data results support this.
Breakout Age
Again, there are a few different ways to measure ‘when’ a player broke out. I use playerprofiler.com as the standard.
18 year old BOA – 7
19 year old BOA – 9
20 year old BOA – 6
21 yr old + BOA – 2
Tyreek Hill is again an outlier.
Conclusion
In review. If you’re looking for an elite Dynasty Wide Receiver in the 2020 class, here is what you are seeking:
- Drafted in rounds 1-3
- 6’0” or taller
- A 4.59 or better 40-Time
- A college dominator of 30 or better
- A BOA of 18 or 19 years old
