Week 6 Review: Looking Back At Projections
Based on performances so far this season, I’m not sure there’s anyone who would have predicted Kenyan Drake, D’Andre Swift and Ronald Jones would all be top 5 running backs in week 6. Then add Trey Burton, Anthony Firkser and Darren Fells as top 5 tight ends. There’s always plenty of surprises in the NFL, no matter how much we prepare but the analysis is key. If we can understand the ‘why’ of what happened then we have a better chance of predicting the ‘what’ next time around.
Week 7 Rankings!
As always, I’m not going to spend time working through waiver wire adds, or buy low/sell high candidates, but instead I’m going to take a retrospective look at the assumptions I used for my weekly projections. I’ll pick out where I was significantly different, where I was close, and some of the players that sit at either end of some key stats on the week. Let’s get into the Week 6 review.
Week 6 Review: Team play counts
Key Stats
- Highest: Dallas Cowboys (84 plays)
- Lowest: New York Giants (46 plays)
- Average: 64 plays
New Quarterback, same old Dallas Cowboys. They turn the ball over, their defense leaks like a sieve and they have to make play after play to try to get back in games. It might not have led to much on the scoreboard this week but it did lead to their highest volume of plays so far this year. I’ve no doubts that they want this to drop, that they want to manage the clock with the ground game and keep their defense off the field (the 2016 recipe) but it’s just not happening and Zeke needs to do a better job of taking care of that football.
Dallas have the highest average play total so far this season and are the only team with that number over 70.
58-percent of teams are running more than 60 plays and the average number of plays in week 6 was 62. This is becoming consistent now. The early season excitement has very much calmed down and the average numbers are stabilising slightly above the 2019 rates.
12 teams hit the over on their Vegas implied totals in week 6. That’s down from 23 in week three, 15 in week four and 14 in week five. That’s good but only 11 of 28 teams (39-percent) were within one score of their implied totals (down from 50-percent in week five) and 10 teams were out by double-digits. I use these implied totals to help build projections so when they’re out by this much, it definitely affects the outcomes. When it gets to the offseason, I’m going to spend some time considering whether there’s some adjustments we can make from the Vegas lines but in the meantime I will continue to believe that they know better than I do!
For the first time in three weeks we had a team run less than 50 plays. Not only is 46 plays the Giants lowest of the season but you have to go back to week 3 of 2013 to find the last game where they ran less plays. Bearing in mind that they also ran 47 plays in week 3 of this season, it appears that the low play totals are something that we can expect to happen under the current coaching regime in their first season together.
Other notable teams to look at:
- Atlanta – the previous three weeks had sat in the low 60s with a lean on the run game. In the first game after firing Dan Quinn, they had their highest of the season with 78 (a mark they only topped once in 2019)
- Buffalo – struggled to get a hold of this game and ran their lowest total of the year with 50 (their lowest in 2019 was 49)
- Cleveland – another team who were dominated by their opponent in week 6, their 54 plays was the lowest of the season so far
- Detroit – in a plus matchup, Detroit went back to their week one ways with 70 plays after three weeks in a row of play totals in the 50s. Lots of hype on D’Andre Swift’s usage this week but it could very well be due to the sheer volume of plays
- Houston – still have the lowest average play volume in the league but managed to get above 60 plays for the first time this season
- Minnesota – when they’re off they’re off and when they’re on they’re on. They’ve now had three games with 50 or less plays when they’ve been dominated by their opposition, and three games over 60 plays when they’ve been competitive
Key Takeaway – the average number of plays across the league was pretty much perfect and 19 of 28 teams (68-percent) were within 10 plays (down by two from last week). 10 were within 5 plays and I nailed the Eagles this week.
Week 6 Review: Pass Attempts
Key Stats
- Highest: Dallas Cowboys (54 attempts – 67-percent passing)
- Lowest: New York Giants (19 attempts – 42-percent passing)
- Average: 34 pass attempts
I’ve covered the Cowboys above so won’t dwell on them here other than to say they had 10 more pass attempts than the next nearest team. Their pass percentage isn’t particularly high compared to normal so it’s purely volume driven.
Similarly, the New York Giants volume puts them bottom of the pass attempts list too. Although on this occasion, they did only pass on 42-percent of their plays. So this isn’t the volume driving down the pass attempts, it’s the lean on the run that drove down the volume in a positive gamescript.
The other teams at the bottom of this list are the ones who were dominating their games including Pittsburgh and Arizona. As always the Patriots, Ravens and Browns tried to pass less and Miami repeated their desire to rely on the ground game on the occasion where they can establish a lead (as they did against Jacksonville earlier in the season).
I’m going to keep this note here every week – this metric will always be gamescript driven so the trick is going to be getting that right. The reliance is still on the Vegas over/under and implied team totals to drive my projection totals so getting that right is going to help to get closer.
My biggest misses this week were the Broncos and the Colts. With the Broncos, they were able to stay in the game with the Patriots and keep moving on the ground without needing to pass the ball. With the Colts, they fell behind unexpectedly and had to lean more heavily on the passing game than anyone would have expected.
Key Takeaway – Only 14 of 28 teams had a pass-ratio within 10-percent of projection this week (down from 18 last week); 5 were less than 5-percent off (down from 7); and 1 within 1-percent (down from 2). No perfect pass-percentage projections this week but 13 teams were within 5 pass attempts (up from 12) and 3 were spot-on (up from 2).
Rush Attempts
- Highest: Kansas City (46 attempts)
- Lowest: Minnesota (13 attempts)
- Average: 28 rush attempts
As always, I’ve covered the ratios above so I’ll look at some pure numbers.
Five teams had less than 20 rush attempts in week 6 (down from five in week 5), reflecting a few blowout games that needed plenty of passing to catch up. This marries well with earlier comments about the Vegas implied totals being somewhat wild this week. The Bears low run volume is officially a trend after three weeks in a row now with low numbers.
The top has a few imposters with Kansas City leading the way. The weather was dreadful so Mahomes was happy to let that be more of a problem for Andy Reid’s visor than for his passing game. The Lions are the other team who look a little lost up here but is likely reflective of where Patricia would like his team to be wherever possible.
Key Takeaway – continues to be nothing too unusual here when you consider the gamescripts. The Chicago Bears do not like to run the ball.
Intended Air Yards per Attempt (IAY/A)
- Highest: Drew Lock (16.3 yards per attempt)
- Lowest: Jimmy Garoppolo (4.4 yards per attempt)
- Average: 8.5 Intended Air Yards per Attempt
Every week there’s a handful of QBs with an IAY/A over 10 but it’s not often we get one as high as 16.3. Putting aside his five throw game where he left injured, Lock hadn’t previously topped 9.2 IAY/A in his career but absolutely blitzed it this week. There wasn’t much happening in this Denver/New England game and Lock only threw 24 times but when he did, he was slinging it. I don’t expect this to be the norm but watch out for a pattern of larger IAY/A numbers coming from him in future.
Also near the top of the list this week, Jared Goff has an IAY/A above 10 a few times per season and he has his first for this year. His 11.7 IAY/A is his highest career total so far though, while Josh Allen remains high on the list with his cannon-arm and a negative gamescript.
At the bottom end, Jimmy G isn’t known for his downfield throwing and his 4.4 IAY/A was the lowest of the low. He’s content dumping it off and letting his weapons do the dirty work, as usual in San Francisco.
Kyle Allen remains low for Washington (6.1 IAY/A) while Andy Dalton finds himself at the wrong end of the table as his lack of mobility forced him to throw short again and again.
When I compare the results against my projections, I can see that 68-percent were within 2 yards of expectation (last week was 65-percent). 32-percent were within a yard (last week was 50-percent) and 4 QBs were within 0.5 yards (last week was 6). A perfect landing on Matthew Stafford this week and I was only 0.2 yards off on Tannehill and Rivers.
Key Takeaway – as we get more weeks under the belt, we get more data to use. But there’s still a lot of volatility week to week, and the changes to Quarterback are causing a few discrepancies. With more injuries and some Covid-induced changes ahead, I’ll need to stay fluid with this.
Targets
Top Targets
| 1 | DJ Chark | 14 |
| 2 | Jamison Crowder | 13 |
| 3 | Terry McLaurin | 12 |
| = 4 | Will Fuller | 11 |
| = 4 | Justin Jefferson | 11 |
| = 4 | DJ Moore | 11 |
Target Market Share (Percentage of Team’s Target Share)
| 1 | DJ Moore | 42 |
| 2 | DeAndre Hopkins | 36 |
| = 3 | Davante Adams | 34 |
| = 3 | Jamison Crowder | 34 |
| = 5 | DJ Chark | 33 |
| = 5 | Tim Patrick | 33 |
What do DJ Chark, Jamison Crowder and DJ Moore have in common? Not only were they top 5 for target share on their teams but they were top 5 across the league in actual target volume. This is exactly what we want in our receivers but it inevitably leads to a discussion about the quality of targets with Crowder and Chark in particular not making much of those opportunities. It’s promising though and this might represent a buy-low opportunity for Chark with the hope that those targets lead in to some production.
For DJ Moore, this would put the brakes on the panic of him being second on the team behind Robby Anderson. They’re a 1-2 punch and each can be the main man on their day so don’t panic too much on Moore, he’s still getting those targets.
Another player who didn’t do a great deal with his targets was Terry McLaurin but again, those targets are consistently there for a man who is seemingly the only decent weapon on his team. He had a difficult matchup last week with a top shadow corner and he gets the Cowboys this week who are too busy chasing their own shadows.
Other than a goose-egg in a game where he wasn’t 100-percent, Will Fuller has been racking up the targets in the Houston attack. We know he’s good on his day and with this level of consistency of targets from one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Fuller is a top top option while ever he can stay injury free.
Justin Jefferson creeps on to this list for the first time as he really takes hold of his opportunity in Minnesota. Again, this was a plus matchup for him against a beatable Atlanta secondary and he isn’t going to out-target Thielen every week. He’s clearly trusted by Cousins and the coaching staff though, fantastic to see so early in his NFL career.
DeAndre Hopkins dominates targets every week in Arizona and I’m not sure that he’s dropped off this list once yet. 36-percent of the market share remains high-level but be aware that Kyler Murray only threw the ball 24 times and he only completed 9 passes in this blowout.
Similarly, Davante Adams is always going to be top of the market share leaderboards. Again, the total and quality of targets wasn’t where Aaron Rodgers has typically been recently but whatever he is throwing, he’s throwing it to Adams.
Finally, Tim Patrick is emerging as an alpha receiver in the Broncos offense, taking the role that we dreamed of for Courtland Sutton. Jerry Jeudy is getting opportunity but he can’t seem to haul the ball in as much as he needs to and it’s Patrick who is becoming the trusted weapon. As noted above, if Lock is starting to throw it deeper and Patrick is getting the lions share of the targets then keep a close eye on his rise up the rankings.
A few other notable receivers who saw double digit targets and around 30-percent market share:
- George Kittle – as usual, the 49ers gameplan consists of throwing the ball to Kittle and letting him bulldoze defenders
- AJ Green – bounced back in a big way after accusations of giving up in the previous week, getting 11 targets in week 6
- Ezekiel Elliott – safety valve in the passing game to stop Andy Dalton getting pummeled
- Robert Woods – you never know if it’s going to be Woods or Kupp but you do know they’re going to get opportunity and Woods’ 11 targets was worth 27-percent target share in week 6
- Julio Jones – he’s back!
Key Takeaway – plenty of number one targets but the quality of the targets needs to be considered carefully in projections
Carries
Top Carries
| 1 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 26 |
| = 2 | Ronald Jones | 23 |
| = 2 | Philip Lindsay | 23 |
| 4 | Derrick Henry | 22 |
| 5 | Kenyan Drake / Todd Gurley / James Conner | 20 |
Carry Market Share (Percentage of Team’s Carry Share)
| 1 | Derrick Henry | 81 |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor | 80 |
| 3 | Alexander Mattison | 77 |
| 4 | David Montgomery | 76 |
| 5 | James Robinson | 75 |
If competition was on CEH’s mind then it served as a great motivator on his league-leading 26 carries. As noted earlier in this article, it was unusually high run-volume for the Chiefs in a rainy Monday night game, and CEH was the main beneficiary.
Similarly, Ronald Jones benefited from an unexpectedly positive gamescript and a lack of competition with Fournette once again limited to an emergency backup role. Keeping a close eye on Jones’ workload as Fournette gets back in to the side but Jones has made the most of his opportunity and it would be disappointing to see him lose that now.
Philip Lindsay is another one who made the most of his opportunity with Melvin Gordon out. Gordon had taken a stranglehold of that backfield with Lindsay injured but with some health and discipline issues in the last week, Gordon opened it back up for Lindsay. No word yet on what’s happening with Gordon but it will go back to some kind of timeshare when he returns.
Derrick Henry is a beast and don’t be surprised to see his position look like it does on these lists. When they’re playing well, the play volume is down so he won’t necessarily be one of the top carry leaders but he will be one of the top market share leaders. Tennessee are developing some young talent to back him up and give him a rest but Henry will keep steamrolling whenever he can.
Drake, Gurley and Conner also benefited from positive gamescripts on high volume teams but you’ll notice that none of them are in the market share table. Kyler Murray in particular caps Kenyan Drake’s ability to take all of the carries in Arizona while the Steelers are happy to mix in Snell and others to keep the heavy burden off James Conner.
On the market share side, Jonathan Taylor, Alexander Mattison, David Montgomery and James Robinson were the clear lead guys on their teams but all on teams that either don’t run the ball or didn’t get an opportunity to run the ball. The Colts fell behind early and the Vikings got smashed, while the Jaguars are consistently playing catch-up and Chicago just don’t like to run the ball.
Key Takeaway – the high market share players seem to find themselves on low run-volume offenses while it’s the players with increased opportunity who are making the most of team-mate absences. These running back charts are about to get flipped on their heads as players return from injury in the coming weeks. Anyone seen CMC?
Week 6 Review: Summary
Injuries, coaching changes, and the impending trade deadline are still going to be key to watch for in the next few weeks, with Le-Veon Bell’s trip to Kansas City not likely to be the last of the movements that will impact the projections.
Look carefully at the backfields that have had injuries in them recently. Some sell-high opportunities are still there but also some potential buy-low chances for those coming back. And have a look at those high target receivers who aren’t yet hitting big – Chark and Moore are classic examples of that, and there may be a small window to get McLaurin a little cheaper than normal before he torches Dallas in week 7.
Keep your eye on twitter for those impending trades and go snag those upside picks off the waiver wire before it’s too late.
