Week 5 Review: Looking Back At Projections
Chase Claypool, Travis Fulgham, Brandin Cooks. Your top three wide receivers in week five.
I keep talking about but I’ll say it again, there are players every week that spring from nowhere and do something that they’ll never do again. And there are players with great matchups that just don’t hit the numbers for one reason or another (looking at you CEH).
CHECK OUT OUR DYNASTY RANKINGS!
That’s where analysis comes in to play. If we look at the ‘why’ behind the results we can see how team tendencies are impacting players, what their overall usage is, and try to understand what we can expect in future weeks. My method for doing this is to review my projections and pick apart the differences.
As always, I’m not going to spend time working through waiver wire adds, or buy low/sell high candidates, but instead I’m going to take a retrospective look at the assumptions I used for my weekly projections. I’ll pick out where I was significantly different, where I was close, and some of the players that sit at either end of some key stats on the week. Let’s get into the Week 5 review.
Week 5 Review: Team play counts
Key Stats
- Highest: Minnesota Vikings (83 plays)
- Lowest: Seattle, Indianapolis, Washington (52 plays)
- Average: 62 plays
What a difference a few weeks makes. At the start of the season, Minnesota’s offense could not get on the field and they were running the lowest amount of plays in the league. Fast forward to week five and they’re clicking, running one of the highest volume of plays of any team so far this season.
Overall play volume across the league is still up from 2019 but it might be starting to calm down a touch. In week three there were 8 teams that ran more than 70 plays, in week four that number came down to 5 and in week five it dropped to 3. However, 60-percent of teams are still running more than 60 plays which is a slight uptick on previous weeks, with the average number of plays settling at 62 (63 in week four, 61 in 2019).
We are still getting more plays than last season but the early season excitement might be starting to settle down a little.
Vegas are getting better at this too. The number of teams hitting the over has gone from 23 in week three, to 15 in week four and now 14 in week five. That’s still a big number but 6 of them were by 5 or less points. And almost half of teams were within one score of their implied totals (two teams were a perfect hit). Considering I use these implied totals to help build my projections, this is a good sign for future weeks.
Last week the 50 plays ran by the Chargers was the highest floor we’d had so far this season, and that floor just raised again in week five with the three teams at the bottom of the scale running 52 plays each. For Seattle, you can put them alongside the season-high total from Minnesota to see that this was a tale of clock domination from the Vikings that prevented Seattle from getting their offense on the field more. Likewise Indianapolis were played at their own clock-killing-run-game game by the Browns, where Washington struggled with changing quarterbacks and an offensive line that leaks like a sieve. It’s season low play counts for all three teams and I expect all three to bounce back somewhat in week six.
Other notable teams to look at:
- Atlanta – after play volume in the 70s for the first two weeks, the last three weeks have settled in to the low 60s, reflecting their lean more to the run game than previously
- Buffalo – playing from behind, they were forced to increase their play volume from mid 50s in previous weeks to high 60s in week five
- Cincinnati – ran their lowest play volume of the season as they struggled to get any sort of grip against the Ravens
- Dallas – had lower volume than previous weeks but they still have the highest average play volume so far this year (I expect this to change with Dalton under centre)
- Houston – have the lowest average play volume in the league and are consistently below 60 plays
- Philadelphia – known for their normally high-volume offense, they’ve had their lowest totals in consecutive weeks now and this week’s total was less than any total from 2019
Key Takeaway – the average number of plays across the league was perfect and 21 of 28 teams (75-percent) were within 10 plays. 13 were within 5 plays and I nailed the New York Giants. I’m pretty happy with that accuracy at this stage.
Week 5 Review: Pass Attempts
Key Stats
- Highest: Jacksonville Jaguars (49 attempts – 71-percent passing)
- Lowest: Tennessee Titans (28 attempts – 45-percent passing)
- Average: 36 pass attempts
Another team that has gone from worst to first this season, Jacksonville are running more plays and after his lowest career total in week one (20), Gardner Minshew has posted four consecutive games of over 40 attempts culminating in week five with his career high of 49. It’s a pattern we can take something from now, Jacksonville aren’t going to be the low play volume, high run percentage team we saw at the start of the season. They’ll be throwing the ball to keep up.
Last week it was the run-heavy teams at the bottom of this list but there’s some interesting findings at the bottom this week. Tennessee still carry the torch for the running teams at the very bottom, not a surprise to see them utilise their 2019 model of high-efficient passing and high-volume running. But we also see Miami, Washington and Cincinnati down there too. For Washington, it’s total play volume. They still threw the ball 68-percent of the time, they just couldn’t keep their offense on the field.
For Miami, this was a surprise gamescript shift as they blew out San Francisco early and that allowed them to run. Against Jacksonville in week three, Miami established their desire to use the run game to dominate the clock if they can get a lead. The assumption was that they wouldn’t get many opportunities to be in those scenarios but they managed it in week five. Yes, San Francisco were somewhat the masters of their own downfall but we should really start thinking about whether Miami’s defense is starting to develop and put them in a position to compete in games. If they can, then the low passing volume is clearly something they want to do.
I’m going to keep this note here every week – this metric will always be gamescript driven so the trick is going to be getting that right. The reliance is still on the Vegas over/under and implied team totals to drive my projection totals so getting that right is going to help to get closer.
My biggest misses this week were the Dolphins and the Chiefs. As noted above with the Dolphins, it’s the surprise gamescripts that drive these biggest gaps and that’s the case with the Chiefs as well. Not many expected the Chiefs to be chasing a two score lead in this game so of course that led to a much higher pass volume than anticipated.
Key Takeaway – 18 of 28 teams had a pass-ratio within 10-percent of projection this week; 7 were less than 5-percent off; and 2 within 1-percent. No perfect pass-percentage projections this week but 12 teams were within 5 pass attempts and 1 was spot-on.
Rush Attempts
- Highest: Minnesota Vikings (41 attempts)
- Lowest: Chicago, Washington (14 attempts)
- Average: 26 rush attempts
As always, I’ve covered the ratios above so I’ll look at some pure numbers.
Six teams had less than 20 rush attempts in week 5 (up from two in week 4), reflecting a few blowout games that needed plenty of passing to catch up. The Bears were down here last week and I called for a look at this being a trend with Foles under centre. They’re there again this week and they weren’t behind for significant portions of the game. Does two games make a trend? Maybe not, but I’m starting to think this should be the expectation.
The top looks like you’d expect it to with Minnesota, LA Rams, Tennessee and Cleveland consistently relying on the run game to dominate. In second place this week is Las Vegas who managed to get a jump on the Chiefs and rely heavily on their ground game. Again, this is something we know they want to do if the gamescript allows them to.
Key Takeaway – nothing too unusual here. We know the teams that like to run and we know what happens when gamescript allows.
Intended Air Yards per Attempt (IAY/A)
- Highest: Carson Wentz (13.2 yards per attempt)
- Lowest: Alex Smith (5.7 yards per attempt)
- Average: 8.4 Intended Air Yards per Attempt
I always seem to lie to you in this section and tell you that the highest on this list is someone that isn’t actually highest. I’ll promise you this, when OBJ throws three or more passes in a game I’ll include him.
Carson Wentz has found himself at the top of the list already this season and he’s back there again. He’s also found himself bottom. The Eagles are struggling to get their pass-catchers on the field consistently and establish their offensive identity. Wentz is looking better but I suspect his numbers are going to be up and down until they get some consistency.
Some other QBs at the top end of this list are the typical gunslingers. Russell Wilson, Josh Allen and new guy Justin Herbert all had IAY/A over 10 yards. They have some top receivers and cannons for arms, expect them all to be in this range regularly.
At the bottom end, it’s the Washington Football Team that once again are struggling to get the ball downfield. Last week it was Dwayne Haskins, this week it’s Alex Smith. They need to do something about that offensive line to give whoever the QB is time to get it downfield.
When I compare the results against my projections, I can see that 65-percent were within 2 yards of expectation (last week was 65-percent). 50-percent were within a yard (last week was 39-percent) and 6 QBs were within 0.5 yards (last week was 8). A perfect landing on Baker Mayfield this week and I was only 0.1 yards off on Brees, Brady and Goff.
Key Takeaway – as we get more weeks under the belt, we get more data to use. But there’s still a lot of volatility week to week, and the changes to Quarterback are causing a few discrepancies. With more injuries and some Covid-induced changes ahead, I’ll need to stay fluid with this.
Targets
Top Targets
| = 1 | Stefon Diggs | 16 |
| = 1 | Allen Robinson | 16 |
| 3 | Emmanuel Sanders | 14 |
| = 4 | Robby Anderson | 13 |
| = 4 | Travis Kelce | 13 |
| = 4 | Adam Thielen | 13 |
Target Market Share (Percentage of Team’s Target Share)
| = 1 | Allen Robinson | 38 |
| = 1 | Darius Slayton | 38 |
| = 3 | Robby Anderson | 37 |
| = 3 | D.K. Metcalf | 37 |
| 5 | Stefon Diggs | 36 |
Players who land in both of these tables are worth their weight in gold. A player can get a large market share of this team’s targets but if that team isn’t really throwing the ball then it doesn’t mean too much. So if they’re getting the market share and the volume, that’s what we need. There are three such players this week, Allen Robinson, Stefon Diggs and Robby Anderson.
Robinson and Diggs have been here before. They’re clear number one targets on their teams and they’ve established themselves as WR1 options on a weekly basis. Plug. And. Play. For Robby Anderson, he barely missed out last week with double-digit targets and almost 30-percent target share, and this week he makes both lists. He’s become the number one target in Carolina, much to the chagrin of DJ Moore owners (we have a regular meeting if you want to join…), and you can trust him as a strong starter until something changes.
Emmanuel Sanders had a big week in the continued absence of Michael Thomas. It took him a while to get going but that’s consecutive weeks of dominating targets in New Orleans. Presuming that Thomas stops punching his teammates, he’ll be back after the bye and Sanders goes back to a deep option only.
Travis Kelce always gets his fair share of targets and then a handful of times a season he gets these double-digit target games. With the Chiefs chasing the game, this was one of those games and his second of the season.
Last week I urged slight caution on Adam Thielen’s market share being high but his actual volume not being there due to the low pass-volume offense. Well the Vikings threw a bit more this week and his market share turned in to target volume. This is why we look at both of these metrics, if a player is getting the target share then if we can predict an overall increase in team volume that could mean big things for that player.
This week it’s Darius Slayton and DK Metcalf who hit the market share list but not the total targets list. However, they both got 11 targets so it’s not like they suffered from a low volume/high market share problem. They were the number one targets on their teams and have shown their ability to be game-breakers if they catch the touchdowns (which they seem to have a habit of doing).
A few other notable receivers who saw double digit targets and 30-percent or higher market share:
- Jeff Smith – emerged in this Jets offense as a high-volume receiver but that doesn’t mean enough on this team unfortunately, especially with Mims due back
- Brandin Cooks – he was written off last week as done but Cooks bounced back in a big way. A sign of things to come under the new Texans leadership?
- Travis Fulgham – in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king. I’m being unfair but Fulgham benefited from a lack of other options in the Eagles offense. He did well with it but he has other players coming back so don’t get carried away
- CeeDee Lamb – what a player he’s turning in to. All eyes on Andy Dalton and his tendencies
- Chase Claypool – massive game but again, benefited from injuries elsewhere in the receiving corp. Hopefully has earned a bigger role but unlikely to be this big
- Jamison Crowder – just keeps on producing, every single week. Don’t overthink it
- TY Hilton – another one cast aside as done, Hilton finally hit his stride this week
- Marquise Brown – the clear number one receiver outside of Mark Andrews, just needs to keep connecting on those touchdown throws
Key Takeaway – plenty of number one targets this week. Need to keep regression in mind to not oversell the likely targets but plenty of optimism for many
Carries
Top Carries
| 1 | Joe Mixon | 24 |
| 2 | Josh Jacobs | 23 |
| = 3 | Kareem Hunt | 20 |
| = 3 | Alexander Mattison | 20 |
| 5 | Derrick Henry | 19 |
Carry Market Share (Percentage of Team’s Carry Share)
| 1 | Ronald Jones | 85 |
| 2 | Joe Mixon | 83 |
| 3 | David Johnson | 77 |
| 4 | Antonio Gibson | 73 |
| 5 | David Montgomery | 71 |
It never ceases to amaze me the reliance we put on touchdowns as a predictive measure of how well a running back is going to play. But time and again our fortunes are changed by them so it’s hard not to chase them. And that’s why there has been disappointment in the likes of Mixon and CEH. It’s also why some are buoyant about Todd Gurley. But they aren’t a reliable indicator of future success. Sure there are some players who have a greater chance than others but it’s the workload we want to see. And that’s why Joe Mixon owners should be happy to see him with the most carries on the week and the second highest market share of his team carries. Don’t panic on Mixon.
Josh Jacobs continues to pound the rock for a Las Vegas team who got themselves an unexpected lead and love to run the ball, and Kareem Hunt did exactly what fantasy managers were hoping he would do when they drafted him for these moments. Without Chubb, he’s the main back on a run-heavy team that will get lots of rushing volume.
Alexander Mattison showed he knows what to do when he gets his opportunity, piling up plenty of carries with Cook getting injured. It looks like Cook will miss at least one game but if he’s out for any longer then Mattison is a reliable starter until he gets back.
Derrick Henry is a staple on these lists but what was interesting was that he only got 56-percent of his team’s carries. This is a guy who they rolled out again and again and again last year. His dominance on team touches was monstrous. But they drafted Darrynton Evans and although Evans has been dealing with injuries, they’ve still rolled out Jeremy McNichols to shoulder some of the workload. Henry is safe as houses and will continue to get all the key running back workload, but don’t be surprised to see a bit more of these other guys and Henry getting a bit more rest.
Ronald Jones, David Johnson, Antonio Gibson and David Montgomery all dominated their team’s market share on carries but the actual carry counts were less dominant. Jones and Johnson did get 17 carries each, which is a solid workload but Gibson and Montgomery only got 11 and 10 touches respectively. They may be dominating the market share on paper but the overall volume of touches isn’t high enough at this stage to make it count.
I gave an honourable mention last week to Jerick McKinnon for dominating touches in San Francisco. This week he disappeared. It was always going to decrease when Mostert came back but this was dramatic. One carry for 5-percent of the market share.
Key Takeaway – the story is pretty much the same as last week. Injuries are giving a boost to the market share of their teammates and giving some false dawns on expectations. RBBC is still very much a thing. And I’ll say it again, if you have a running back who had a big week and they have teammates returning from injury, sell sell sell!
Week 5 Review: Summary
Injuries, coaching changes, and the impending trade deadline are going to be key to watch for in the next few weeks. They will all continue to impact how teams are going to operate and what we can expect in the projections.
The dominant players continue to be the ones who have benefited from reduced competition. So if you’re looking for the buy low/sell high candidates that’s where I’d focus my attentions. Places like the Rams and Chargers backfields are going to be messy without an injury. Now would be the time to sell Mike Davis before CMC returns to the fold.
Houston and Atlanta have my attention this week. Are the coaching changes going to lead to changes in tendencies? Play volume? Or even the players who are being targeted?
One thing is for sure, if we can work out who is going to be the Chase Claypool of week six then I’m buying a new car with those DFS winnings!
