Week 3 Review: Looking Back At Projections
Week 3 was fun wasn’t it?!
I projected James Robinson and Rex Burkhead as top 5 running backs, Cedrick Wilson as WR3 and Jimmy Graham and Tyler Kroft as the top two tight ends for the week. Didn’t everyone?
Ok, that was a lie but you knew that already. With the impact of the Week 2 injuries being felt across the board, Week 3 just went nuts. I mean, Dwayne Haskins outscored Lamar Jackson.
No-one can hand on heart say they can predict these things to happen but what we can do is look at the process as to how we got where we did. That’s what this series is for.
As always, I’m not going to spend time working through waiver wire adds, or buy low/sell high candidates, but instead I’m going to take a retrospective look at the assumptions I used for my weekly projections. I’ll pick out where I was significantly different, where I was close, and some of the players that sit at either end of some key stats on the week. Let’s get into the Week 3 review.
Week 3 Review: Team play counts
Key Stats
- Highest: Philadelphia Eagles (86 plays)
- Lowest: Houston Texans (47 plays)
The high volume teams continue to play hard and fast. While the Bengals week 2 count of 88 plays holds the record for the season so far, the Eagles’ 86 plays in week 3 wasn’t far behind. Now, to be fair, this included overtime. Without that overtime period, the highest on the week would have been the Dallas Cowboys with 80.
10 teams in total ran 70 or more plays in week 3, adding to the 12 in week two and 8 in week one. Looking back at 2019, 13-percent of weekly offensive play totals were 71+ plays (across the whole year). In the first three weeks, that number was 10-percent. In 2020 so far, we’re at 22-percent. More teams are running more plays.
The average number of plays was 61 in 2019, with the highest number of plays in any given week averaging at 78. So far this year, we’re at an average of 62 and the highest number of plays averaging at 82. It’s definitely increasing.
23 of the 32 teams hit the over on their vegas implied totals in week 3, up from 21 in week 2. 6 of these were by double digits, with the Packers and 49ers at the top of the tree. Teams are running more plays and scoring more points than last year. I noted last week that this could be due to rusty defenses, and that still could be the case, but if this doesn’t settle back down in the next couple of weeks then we’ll need to find a new working theory.
At the low end, there isn’t much movement from 2019 to 2020. There were plenty of low play-count teams similar to what we’re seeing this year, it’s the top-end that’s increased.
In week 3, the Houston Texans get the chocolates for the lowest number of plays, closely followed by the New York Giants with 49, and both the Panthers and Ravens ticking in below that 55 play low-bar that I’ve discussed previously. For a good news story, after bobbling along near the bottom for two weeks, the Minnesota Vikings have managed to string some plays together and get up to the middle of the pack with 62 plays in week 3. Similarly the Chargers went from a run-heavy, low volume offense in week 2 to 5th in play volume in week 3 as they struggled to assert themselves on the Panthers.
Key Takeaway – some big swings in week 3 with only 20 of 32 teams being within 10 points of projections. The average number of plays across the league was pretty much as projected but the swings on which teams were which was a little wild again.
Week 3 Review: Pass Attempts
Key Stats
- Highest: Dallas Cowboys (57 attempts – 73-percent passing)
- Lowest: Miami Dolphins (20 attempts – 36-percent passing)
In smashing their vegas implied total and leading most of the game, the Dolphins threw fewer than 22 times for the first time since week 14 of 2018, and it’s the first time since then that they’ve had a lower than 50-percent pass ratio. The 20 pass attempts was also Ryan Fitzpatrick’s lowest full-game total since December 2014. On top of the Dolphins, it’s little surprise to see the Browns, Colts, Vikings and Patriots also had a less than 50-percent pass ratio. We know these teams like to run so provided we can see the gamescript allowing them to do so, there’s no reason we should expect any different in future.
At the top end, the Dallas Cowboys’ poor defense continues to put themselves in shoot-outs and results in a high-volume of pass attempts. Similarly, Nick Foles threw the Bears in to a comeback against the Falcons, and rookie Justin Herbert had the third highest pass attempts in the week to stay in the game against the Panthers.
I noted last week that this metric continues to be gamescript driven. That’s fairly obvious but for some specific team tendencies. I continue to use the Vegas over/under and implied team totals to drive my projection totals at this stage of the season, and once again the biggest differences in projected pass-ratios were in line with the biggest differences in the Vegas expectations. It feels like we’re getting a better idea of where these totals should land so I expect these totals to get closer over the next couple of weeks.
The Dolphins and Chargers were the biggest misses in week 3. As discussed above, the Dolphins came in to this game as a slight underdog but managed to win the battle of the facial hair with ease and were below 50-percent passing for the first time in over a season. It does show that they’re willing to rely on the run game if they get the opportunity, but there are unlikely to be many games where they will get chance. We ‘knew’ the Chargers were going to blow out the Panthers by running heavily….but that clearly wasn’t to be.
Key Takeaway – the team tendencies are starting to become clear and the key to this metric is going to be getting a grip on the gamescripts. 25 of 32 teams had a pass-ratio within 10-percent of projection; 13 were less than 5-percent off; 5 were less than 1-percent and 1 was perfect. Overall, the average delta between projections and actual was less than 1-percent.
Rush Attempts
- Highest: Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots (38 attempts)
- Lowest: Denver Broncos (14 attempts)
As always, I’ve covered the ratios above but if we look at some pure numbers, the Broncos’ 14 rush attempts is one of the lowest of the season so far and was only marginally lower than the Bengals, Jaguars, Giants and Texans (for the second week in a row). These are clearly teams that will abandon the run quickly when they get behind or in a shoot-out. The Steelers and the Patriots have always been teams to dominate on the ground when they can, with the Browns, Eagles and Dolphins close behind. The Eagles are an interesting one, being the only team in the top 5 with a greater than 50-percent passing ratio, showing that this is heavily influenced by the high volume of plays that they run on a weekly basis.
Key Takeaway – the dominant ground games are becoming clearer and clearer, and we can see which teams are going to struggle to establish the run
Intended Air Yards per Attempt (IAY/A)
- Highest: Mitch Trubisky (12.1 yards per attempt)
- Lowest: Drew Brees (4.2 yards per attempt)
Some of these teams are hard to project when they change Quarterback part way through a game, and Chicago was that team this week. However, while he was on the field Trubisky had the highest intended air yards per attempt, jumping from 9.3 in week 2. Matt Ryan remains near the top of this pile, with Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson close behind. There’s some gun-slinging going on right now. On Josh Allen watch, he remained top 10 in this metric whilst also staying above a 70-percent completion rate.
At the bottom of the scale, Drew Brees is getting a lot of buzz about losing his arm strength. Brees has had a low IAY/A for some time but not this low (6.4 in 2019, 7.1 in 2018). He does have his main target out injured so its hard to draw too many conclusions when he’s letting Kamara (who is playing like a man possessed) do the work for him. Cam Newton and Teddy Bridgewater also came in under 5 IAY/A, with Bridgewater in particular taking the short targets throughout the game.
Pleasingly, when I compare the results against my projections, I can see that 75-percent were within 2 yards of expectation (last week was 80-percent). 41-percent were within a yard (last week was 47-percent) and 8 QBs were within 0.5 yards. I nailed Tom Brady and Carson Wentz…like every defensive lineman he’s faced this year (sorry, not sorry).
My unhealthy obsession with Patrick Mahomes IAY/A has previously surmised that he has a low IAY/A in games against elite DBs and in some cases elite DEs, which was the case in the first two weeks. Whilst the Ravens also have some of these elite DBs, it hadn’t phased him when they played previously so I’d assumed an increase this week. He actually had a low 5.9 IAY/A so my theory failed somewhat. I’m going to keep a watchful eye on this to see whether I need to scrap my theory and call it a change in approach from the superbowl MVP.
Key Takeaway – the biggest differences so far have been due to personnel changes either at the QB level or in their pass-catchers. Hoping for less volatility here so we can stabilise these projections
Targets
Top Targets
| 1 | Keenan Allen | 19 |
| 2 | Alvin Kamara | 14 |
| 3 | Tyler Lockett | 13 |
| = 3 | Tyler Boyd | 13 |
| = 3 | Calvin Ridley | 13 |
| = 3 | Allen Robinson | 13 |
Target Market Share (Percentage of Team’s Target Share)
| = 1 | Keenan Allen | 39 |
| = 1 | Alvin Kamara | 39 |
| 3 | Rex Burkhead | 36 |
| = 4 | Calvin Ridley | 34 |
| = 4 | DeAndre Hopkins | 34 |
If week 2 was the week of tight ends taking the bulk of the market share, week 3 was the week of the running backs. Alvin Kamara was second in targets on the week and joint first on market share, while Rex Burkhead and Mike Davis also got more than 30-percent of their team’s targets.
Keenan Allen bounced back in a huge way with Justin Herbert under centre. If he continues to be at the helm then the Chargers game plan looks as simple as “get the ball to Keenan or Austin”. Great for their values but that’s going to hurt the likes of Mike Williams who seemed to be thriving under Tyrod Taylor in week 1.
Tyler Lockett not only exploited the dreadful Dallas secondary but, despite calls from some for it to be Metcalf, he is Russell Wilson’s guy. If he needs someone to get free over the top, Lockett will be there. Third down and need to move the sticks, Lockett will be there. Time running out and need someone to catch the ball and get out of bounds, Lockett will be there.
In a similar manner to Keenan Allen on the Chargers, Tyler Boyd is making his presence known for Joe Burrow. Burrow got great success at LSU last season utilising Justin Jefferson out of the slot, and in week 3 that’s exactly what he did with Tyler Boyd. Darius Slay is playing lights-out for the Eagles so Boyd could very well have benefited from the attention that Slay was giving to others, with Burrow able to exploit the mismatches.
Calvin Ridley is this year’s Chris Godwin you know. He’s certainly playing like it so far, although I would hasten to add that this high target share in week 3 was absolutely influenced by a lack of Julio Jones. Ridley gets his targets regardless but with Julio back in the side, this will come down a little.
Have we found Allen Robinson a half-decent QB to throw him the ball? Lets hope so. We already know he’s good and he’s the clear alpha in this Bears receiving room. The targets have been there and will continue to be, here’s hoping that the quality of them leads to a few more touchdowns.
Although he didn’t find his way in to the top 5 for targets this week, DeAndre Hopkins was top 5 in market share for his team. If in doubt, throw to DeAndre. He’s carried on exactly where he left off in Houston and I expect him to be on or close to these lists every single week.
The big surprise this week was Justin Jefferson. Although the Vikings are still a low volume offense that likes to run, Jefferson got 33-percent of the targets in week 3. They’ll need to throw the ball much more for this to be consistently productive but it’s a great sign of potentially turning in to the Stefon Diggs role from last year.
Key Takeaway – the alpha receivers are clear now but matchups are still dictating some different results each week. I need to be mindful of these as I’m putting together my target projections, particularly with the short-area running back and slot receiver targets
Carries
Top Carries
| 1 | Derrick Henry | 26 |
| = 2 | Dalvin Cook | 22 |
| = 2 | Adrian Peterson | 22 |
| = 2 | Myles Gaskin | 22 |
| 5 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 20 |
Carry Market Share (Percentage of Team’s Carry Share)
| 1 | Joe Mixon | 94 |
| 2 | David Johnson | 87 |
| 3 | Adrian Peterson | 81 |
| 4 | Derrick Henry | 74 |
| 5 | Josh Jacobs | 73 |
There’s some really interesting takeaways on the carry leaders and market share leaders but before we get there, Adrian Peterson. Where did that come from? He’s going to have games like this but I’m not sure we can trust him every week. We definitely can’t trust Matt Patricia who drafted one of the top running backs in the 2020 draft class and gave him 6 snaps this week while Peterson took all the carries. And they won the game, so he might now see this as the winning formula.
Derrick Henry is going to be in this list every single week as the sole dominant back on the Titans so I’m not going to spend too much time going over that. But it’s nice to see Dalvin Cook back up the top of this list after a couple of down weeks to start the year. He’s dominated the backfield all season but the Vikings just haven’t had the volume, so I’m hoping week 3 is a sign of things to come for Minnesota increasing their offensive play count and giving Cook the ball more.
Myles Gaskin on the other hand, sees himself on this list out of the pure volume of rushing plays that the Dolphins ran in a dominant game over the Jaguars. As noted above, they’re unlikely to find themselves in these positions very often so might be the one and only time he makes it to this list.
In terms of market share, Joe Mixon’s 94-percent carry share is huge. And such a good sign for all those panicking about Mixon so far this season. The problem is the volume. 94-percent of not much, is not much. One thing is clear, if the Bengals get an opportunity to run the ball, Mixon is going to feast. We just need them to get that opportunity.
David Johnson also took most of his team’s carries but again, the Texans found themselves with the lowest play volume of the week and hardly running the ball. So Johnson’s presence on this list is a bit of a red herring.
When you look at the market share leaders just outside of the top 5, there’s a few more interesting takeaways. There are 11 different running backs who took between 60 and 70-percent of their team’s carries, but they don’t all look the same. You have the ones we know as being workhorses (Cook, Elliott, CEH), and also Kenyan Drake who has drawn concerns thus far but has the same portion of his team’s carries as Cook and Elliott. We also have some running backs who have come from nowhere (Robinson, Davis, Gaskin) and a couple of backs who are taking advantage of injuries (Singletary, Henderson).
There are two others I wanted to specifically point out. The first is Aaron Jones. I wanted to mention him specifically based on the concerns coming in to the season about him sharing work with Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon, but that’s clearly not an issue so far. The other one I wanted to point out is Latavius Murray, who took 60-percent of the Saint’s carries in week 3. Yes, Kamara is balling out beyond belief, but he’s doing it through the air. It’s Murray pounding on the ground.
Key Takeaway – half of teams have a running back taking 60-percent or more of the their carries. Not all are performing and some are impacted by low volume offenses but RBBC is not necessarily the order of the day
Week 3 Review: Summary
There are definitely some tendencies establishing themselves now and that should lead to much more accurate projections moving forward. Teams are playing fast this year and I need to take that in to account, particularly where there are clear gamescript issues that will dictate the splits.
The depth charts are starting to become less foggy and quarterbacks are establishing connections with their favourite receivers. With some further smoothing out of the Vegas implied team totals allowing me to call the gamescripts better, I’m hoping for much better accuracy in the near future.
Now, if the Broncos and Bears can work out who they want under centre, that would be great.
