Week 14 Review: Looking Back At Projections
This week’s top random performers were:
- Derek Carr QB5
- Lynn Bowden Jr RB15
- KJ Hamler WR8
- Geoff Swaim TE9
Predicting these players can be a fools-errand most of the time but what we can do is understand the ‘why’ of what happened so that we have a better chance of predicting the ‘what’ next time around.
As always, I’m not going to spend time working through waiver wire adds, or buy low/sell high candidates, but instead I’m going to take a retrospective look at the assumptions I used for my weekly projections. I’ll pick out where I was significantly different, where I was close, and some of the players that sit at either end of some key stats on the week.
Let’s get into the Week 14 review.
Week 14 Review: Team play counts
Key Stats
- Highest: Arizona Cardinals (79 plays)
- Lowest: New York Giants / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (49 plays)
- Average: 64 plays
The Facts
- Cleveland‘s 76 plays was their highest since week 1 of 2018 and Miami‘s 73 plays was their highest of the season
- Meanwhile, the 41 plays from New York Giants is the lowest of any team this season
- Indianapolis 59 plays was their lowest since week 6 and with their 49 plays in week 14, New York Jets haven’t reached 60 plays since week 7
- San Francisco‘s 72 plays was their season high while Pittsburgh‘s 54 plays was their second lowest of the season
- 57-percent of teams are still running more than 60 plays (that’s now 9 weeks in a row of 57 or 58 percent) and the average number of plays was back down to normal after an abnormally high week 13
- 16 teams hit the over on their Vegas implied totals in week 14 with 53-percent (17 of 32) within one score (way down from 73-percent in week 13). 14 teams were within 5 points, 10 teams were within a field goal, 3 teams were 1 out and the Lions hit bang on
- The Chargers remain alone at the top of the tree with the only highest average play volume above 70 plays
- New York Jets have toppled Houston as the team with the lowest average play volume and their New York neighbours aren’t too far behind
The Results
- The average number of plays across the league was perfect and 22 of 32 teams (69-percent) were within 10 plays (up by two from last week)
- 12 were within 5 plays (down by three), I was 1 out on 2 teams and got a perfect landing on both Tennessee and LA Chargers
Week 14 Review: Pass Attempts
Key Stats
- Highest: Jacksonville Jaguars (54 attempts – 78-percent)
- Lowest: Baltimore Ravens (21 attempts – 40-percent passing)
- Average: 34 pass attempts
The Facts
- Tampa Bay‘s 47-percent pass rate was only the second time this season they’ve dipped below 50-percent while Jacksonville‘s 78-percent pass rate was their highest of the season
- 45 pass attempts was the joint season high for San Francisco and Philadelphia‘s 45-percent pass rate was their lowest of the season
- Since the return of Trubisky, Chicago‘s average pass rate has dropped and now sits at 64-percent. That’s still the highest in the league but is now joined by Jacksonville at the same rate
- Detroit continue to pass over 60-percent of the time, hitting their highest since week 8 (73-percent). That’s eight weeks in a row having only achieved it once in their first five games
- The lowest average pass rate is still held solely by Baltimore with 44-percent, while Cleveland (48-percent), New England (46-percent) and Tennessee (49-percent) are the only other teams below 50-percent. Tennessee escaped this territory for a week but slipped back in with one of their lowest rates of the season
I’m going to keep this note here every week – this metric will always be gamescript driven so the trick is going to be getting that right. The reliance is still on the Vegas over/under and implied team totals to drive my projection totals so getting that right is going to help to get closer.
The Results
- 24 of 32 teams had a pass-ratio within 10-percent of projection (up from 19 last week)
- 10 were less than 5-percent off (same for three weeks in a row); and 1 within 1-percent
- Closest hit was the Jets with a 0.9-percent difference
- Biggest miss for the week was New Orleans who threw at their highest rate since week 5 and significantly more than I anticipated they would with Hill under centre
Rush Attempts
Key Stats
- Highest: Arizona (43 attempts)
- Lowest: Detroit / Jacksonville (15 attempts)
- Average: 27 rush attempts
The Facts
- Four teams had less than 20 rush attempts in week 14 while a whopping 11 teams ran more than 50-percent of the time
- Arizona‘s 43 rush attempts is their highest since week 9 of 2017 and Seattle‘s 36 rush attempts is their highest of the season
- Despite the mobile Quarterback, New Orleans 20 rush attempts was their lowest since week 3
Intended Air Yards per Attempt (IAY/A)
Key Stats
- Highest: Daniel Jones (11.4 yards per attempt)
- Lowest: Brandon Allen (3.6 yards per attempt)
- Average: 7.5 Intended Air Yards per Attempt
The Facts
- I am fully aware that I lie to you every week but at least I own it – this week’s list of players who did actually have a higher IAY/A than I put above are Russell Gage, Zay Jones and Lynn Bowden Jr. Now you know why I’m lying to you, I’m protecting you from yourself…
- Daniel Jones 11.4 yards was the highest of his career. The effect of being completely immobile I suspect
- Lock’s 6.3 yards was his lowest of the season and the second lowest of his career so far
- Trubisky‘s 4.4 yards was his lowest of at least the last three years while Kirk Cousins 6.7 yards is one of his lowest marks of the season so far
- Herbert’s 5.2 yards was his lowest of the season and he hasn’t been above 7.5 yards since week 7
- Kyler Murray’s 5.5 yards was his lowest since week 1 and with 6.4 yards, Aaron Rodgers has only been lower once in the last three seasons
The Results
- 47-percent of QBs were within 2 yards of projection (down from 60-percent)
- 28-percent were within a yard (down from 30-percent)
- 8 QBs within 0.5 yards, 2 were 0.1 yards off and Russell Wilson was spot on
Targets
Top Targets
| 1 | Brandon Aiyuk | 16 |
| = 2 | Stefon Diggs | 13 |
| = 2 | Allen Robinson | 13 |
| = 4 | Robby Anderson | 12 |
| = 4 | Calvin Ridley | 12 |
| = 4 | Keelan Cole | 12 |
Target Market Share (Percentage of Team’s Target Share)
| = 1 | Allen Robinson | 39 |
| = 1 | AJ Brown | 39 |
| 3 | Calvin Ridley | 38 |
| = 4 | Brandon Aiyuk | 36 |
| = 4 | Damiere Byrd | 36 |
A few other notable receivers who saw double digit targets and around 30-percent market share:
- DeAndre Hopkins – 11 targets, 35-percent market share
- Davante Adams – 10 targets, 32-percent market share
- TJ Hockenson – 11 targets, 29-percent market share
- Alvin Kamara – 10 targets, 27-percent market share
Carries
Top Carries
| 1 | Cam Akers | 29 |
| 2 | Derrick Henry | 26 |
| 3 | Kenyan Drake | 23 |
| 4 | Dalvin Cook | 22 |
| 5 | Jonathan Taylor | 20 |
Carry Market Share (Percentage of Team’s Carry Share)
| 1 | Cam Akers | 81 |
| 2 | James Robinson | 80 |
| 3 | Wayne Gallman | 71 |
| 4 | Ronald Jones | 69 |
| = 5 | Dalvin Cook / Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 67 |
Notable additions:
- Browns: Nick Chubb – 61-percent market share; Kareem Hunt – 21-percent market share
- Falcons: Ito Smith – 55-percent market share; Todd Gurley – 30-percent market share
- Packers: Aaron Jones – 48-percent market share; Jamaal Williams – 32-percent market share
- Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott – 48-percent market share; Tony Pollard – 44-percent market share
- Lions: D’Andre Swift – 47-percent market share; Adrian Peterson – 27-percent market share
- Football Team: Peyton Barber – 43-percent market share; JD McKissic – 39-percent market share
- Ravens: JK Dobbins – 41-percent market share; Gus Edwards – 22-percent market share
- Miles Sanders – only a 39-percent market share
- Mobile Quarterbacks: Jalen Hurts (50-percent), Kyler Murray (30-percent), Lamar Jackson (28-percent), Deshaun Watson (26-percent), Tua Tagovailoa (25-percent), Taysom Hill (25-percent), Cam Newton (24-percent)
Week 14 Review: Summary
- When Vegas get close with their implied team totals, we can get much closer with the volume projections
- The pass-ratios need some work and, as always, correctly predicting the gamescript is the play
- Refinements to the process are key but the principles remain the same, projecting the team volume is essential to the success of individual player projections
Be ready to adapt, be ready to learn from ‘why’ things happened, and be ready to adjust the ‘what’ for the next round of projections.
A quick look ahead to Week 15’s process is an exercise in last man standing to limp over the line. Vegas has the Ravens, Rams, Steelers and Titans all has 10+ point favourites so I expect to see some big projections for those teams. Likewise their opponents (Bengals, Lions, Jaguars and Jets) are going to see a hit to their results.
Any chance Covid can get lost now and we can stop losing players left, right and centre?!
RANKINGS | DYNASTY | WEEK 15
