Week 12 Review: Looking Back At Projections
This week’s top random performers were:
- Mitchell Trubisky QB6
- Latavius Murray RB5
- Collin Johnson WR12
- Richard Rodgers TE6
Predicting these players can be a fools-errand most of the time but what we can do is understand the ‘why’ of what happened so that we have a better chance of predicting the ‘what’ next time around.
As always, I’m not going to spend time working through waiver wire adds, or buy low/sell high candidates, but instead I’m going to take a retrospective look at the assumptions I used for my weekly projections. I’ll pick out where I was significantly different, where I was close, and some of the players that sit at either end of some key stats on the week.
Let’s get into the Week 12 review.
Week 12 Review: Team play counts
Key Stats
- Highest: New York Giants (80 plays)
- Lowest: Denver Broncos (43 plays)
- Average: 63 plays
The Facts
- The 80 plays ran by the New York Giants is their highest since week 15 of 2017
- Meanwhile, 43 plays from the Denver Broncos is their lowest since week 11 of 2019
- We got season-lows from Baltimore and Cincinnati while Detroit equalled their season-high
- 57-percent of teams are still running more than 60 plays (two weeks in a row after five weeks of stability at 58-percent) and the average number of plays was at its lowest point of the season with 61 plays. It had previously been 62 or 63 every week since week 2 (2019 average was 61)
- 12 teams hit the over on their Vegas implied totals in week 12 with 69-percent (22 of 32) within one score (down from 71-percent in week 11). 14 teams were within 5 points, 8 teams were within a field goal and 3 teams were 1 out
- The Chargers stand alone at the top of the tree with the highest average play volume of 70.5 plays
- Houston are still the team with the lowest average play volume but the New York Jets are giving them a run for their money
The Results
- The average number of plays across the league was spot on and 23 of 32 teams (72-percent) were within 10 plays (down by two from last week)
- 12 were within 5 plays (down by two), I was 2 out on 2 teams and my closest hit was 1 play out on Washington
Week 12 Review: Pass Attempts
Key Stats
- Highest: Los Angeles Chargers (52 attempts – 68-percent passing)
- Lowest: Denver Broncos (9 attempts – 21-percent passing)
- Average: 34 pass attempts
The Facts
- Chicago still have the highest average pass rate in the league this season, now up to 66-percent. Tampa Bay are close behind with 64-percent
- 45 pass attempts is Minnesota’s highest since week 11 of 2018 while Los Angeles Chargers 68-percent pass rate was only the third time this season they’ve topped 60-percent
- 16 pass attempts in a game is New Orleans’ lowest since 1998 and I’m not even going to start on Denver
- Tennessee and Green Bay had their lowest pass rates of the season with 33-percent and 43-percent respectively
- Detroit continue to pass over 60-percent of the time. That’s six weeks in a row having only achieved it once in their first five games
- The lowest average pass rate is held solely by Baltimore with 46-percent, while Cleveland (47-percent), New England (47-percent) and Tennessee (48-percent) are the only other teams below 50-percent. That’s also noteworthy for Minnesota who have now hit the 50-percent mark
I’m going to keep this note here every week – this metric will always be gamescript driven so the trick is going to be getting that right. The reliance is still on the Vegas over/under and implied team totals to drive my projection totals so getting that right is going to help to get closer.
The Results
- 16 of 32 teams had a pass-ratio within 10-percent of projection (up from 15 last week)
- 10 were less than 5-percent off (up from 7); and 1 within 1-percent
- Closest hit was the Panthers with a 0.7-percent difference
- Biggest miss for the week was Washington for the second week in a row. They really do swing wildly from one side to the other depending on gamescript
Rush Attempts
Key Stats
- Highest: Tennessee (45 attempts)
- Lowest: Tampa Bay (13 attempts)
- Average: 27 rush attempts
The Facts
- Six teams had less than 20 rush attempts in week 12, coming back down to earth somewhat from week 11
- Las Vegas’ 14 rush attempts was their lowest since week 5 of 2018
- Tampa Bay’s 13 rush attempts marks two weeks in a row with less than 20 and six of their last seven without 100 rushing yards
Intended Air Yards per Attempt (IAY/A)
Key Stats
- Highest: Deshaun Watson (12.6 yards per attempt)
- Lowest: Alex Smith (3.5 yards per attempt)
- Average: 7.6 Intended Air Yards per Attempt
The Facts
- 42 different players threw a pass in week 12. A reminder if you need it, there are only 32 teams!
- Deshaun Watson wasn’t really the highest on the list but he was the highest real Quarterback, behind Logan Thomas, Cole Beasley, Jamal Agnew and Kendall Hinton (no he doesn’t count as a real Quarterback, stop it)
- Sam Darnold’s 11.7 yards is only the second time this season above 10 and his highest since week 7 of 2019. Perhaps Joe Flacco is rubbing off on him
- Alex Smith is officially the dump-off king and hasn’t topped 6 IAY/A all season
- Ben Roethlisberger has been watching Smith by the looks of it, with 4.7 yards his lowest of the season
The Results
- 56-percent of QBs were within 2 yards of projection (down from 75-percent)
- 31-percent were within a yard (down from 43-percent)
- 5 QBs within 0.5 yards and Kirk Cousins was a perfect hit
Targets
Top Targets
| 1 | Austin Ekeler | 16 |
| 2 | Tyreek Hill | 15 |
| 3 | Devante Parker | 14 |
| = 4 | Allen Robinson | 13 |
| = 4 | DK Metcalf | 13 |
| = 4 | Diontae Johnson / Justin Jefferson / Deebo Samuel | 13 |
Target Market Share (Percentage of Team’s Target Share)
| 1 | Marquise Brown | 50 |
| 2 | Damiere Byrd | 47 |
| = 3 | DK Metcalf | 43 |
| = 3 | Michael Thomas | 43 |
| = 5 | Devante Parker | 41 |
| = 5 | Jarvis Landry | 41 |
A few other notable receivers who saw double digit targets and over 30-percent market share:
- Robert Woods – 12 targets, 40-percent market share
- Davante Adams – 10 targets, 33-percent market share
- Marvin Jones – 12 targets, 23-percent market share
Carries
Top Carries
| 1 | Derrick Henry | 27 |
| 2 | Wayne Gallman | 24 |
| = 3 | James Robinson | 22 |
| = 3 | Kenyan Drake | 22 |
| 5 | Antonio Gibson | 20 |
Carry Market Share (Percentage of Team’s Carry Share)
| 1 | James Robinson | 88 |
| 2 | Frank Gore | 86 |
| 3 | Benny Snell Jr | 80 |
| 4 | Dalvin Cook | 75 |
| = 5 | Ronald Jones / David Montgomery | 69 |
Notable additions:
- Nick Chubb – 58-percent market share; Kareem Hunt – 30-percent market share
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire – only 55-percent market share
- DeAndre Washington – 13 carries and 52-percent market share
- Ezekiel Elliott and Josh Jacobs – both with 50-percent market share
- Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams – 44-percent market share each
- Chris Carson – 27-percent market share on return from injury
- Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson – 36-percent and 35-percent market shares respectively
Week 12 Review: Summary
- When Vegas get close with their implied team totals, we can get much closer with the volume projections
- The pass-ratios need some work and, as always, correctly predicting the gamescript is the play
- Refinements to the process are key but the principles remain the same, projecting the team volume is essential to the success of individual player projections
Be ready to adapt, be ready to learn from ‘why’ things happened, and be ready to adjust the ‘what’ for the next round of projections.
A quick look ahead to Week 13’s process has a lot of injury question marks with running backs returning to backfields and players activated back from Covid-IR. Some lower over/unders this week could keep a lid on some of the projections but there are some heavy favourites in there so this could be a week with some big gaps at the top.
Now, who is suiting up under centre this week? Perhaps a backup left tackle, third-string punter, or how about the special teams coach?!
RANKINGS | DYNASTY | WEEK 13
