#Project32 – New York Jets

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New York Jets 2021 projections

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Nominated by Nate Dreslinski (@FFbigcat)
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#Project32 Menu

2020 Recap

Division: AFC East

2020 Finish: 2-14 (4th in AFC East)

2020 Tendencies:

  • Passing Ratio: 55% (20th)
  • Neutral Game Script: 54% (27th)
  • Offensive Scheme: West Coast

Personnel Groupings:

  • 11 Personnel (1 RB, 1TE, 3WR) = 72%
  • 12 Personnel (1RB, 2TE, 2 WR) = 16%
  • 13 Personnel (1RB, 3TE, 1 WR) = 3%
  • 10 Personnel (1RB, 0TE, 4WR) = 2%
  • 01 Personnel (0RB, 1TE, 4WR) = 2%
  • 02 Personnel (0RB, 2TE, 3 WR) = 2%
  • 21 Personnel (2RB, 1TE, 2WR) = 1%

Coaching Room

Head Coach: Robert Saleh

Robert Saleh started out in the NFL as an intern for the Houston Texans making a staggering $5 an hour. I guess you could say he has moved up in the world. Saleh started his coaching career at Michigan State (2002-2003) as a defensive assistant and held similar roles with Central Michigan (2004) and Georgia (2005) before coming to the NFL. Most recently, Saleh served as the Defensive Coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers building one of the best defenses in the NFL. In 2019 the 49ers, under Saleh’s leadership, ranked 6th in forced turnovers (27), second in total defense (281.8 yards per game), first in passing defense (169.2 yards per game), and fourth in sacks (48). The 49ers finished that season with a trip to the Super Bowl. I have no doubt that Saleh will bring a winning culture to the New York Jets much like Brian Flores has done with the Miami Dolphins. This will take three years, in my opinion, to continue to build the roster and put this team in contention to make a playoff run. The clock starts now.

Offensive Coordinator: Mike LaFleur

Robert Saleh knew he needed a bright young mind to connect with the youth on offense and to build a scheme that could compete in today’s NFL. He didn’t have to go very far to fill this need when he plucked Mike LaFleur, passing game coordinator, away from the San Francisco 49ers to bring a Kyle Shanahan system to New York. I fully expect this offense to use motions and shifts pre-snap to get the defense to show their cards and to incorporate a heavy dose of outside zone and play-action. This offense will be very different and more explosive. Mike will be pivotal in the development of Zach Wilson.

Overall Rank: 25th/32

OL Room

LT Mekhi Becton – PFF 74.4, Pass Blocking 76.0, Run Blocking 73.9

Mekhi Becton showed glimpses of greatness in 2020 but with the Jets moving to a zone scheme there are some concerns about his ability to move laterally. Becton is 380 pounds so this should be interesting. However, with a full off-season in 2021, and his ability to dominate at the point of attack, the Jets feel he can transition to this new scheme without any hiccups. Becton is a massive dude and once he gets his hands on you he can absolutely dominate in the run game.

LG Alijah Vera-Tucker (Rookie)

Alijah Vera-Tucker was a problem for opposing offenses in college. The Jets will need to figure out if he plays left guard or right tackle. He had success at both positions in college and comes in graded higher in the passing game. If he does indeed stick at left guard then the left side of the offensive line could be very good for many years.

C Dan Feeney – PFF 48.2, Pass Blocking 51.5, Run Blocking 47.2

Dan Feeney has seen some decline since his rookie year in 2017. This was highlighted by his 48.2 overall grade in 2020 which ranked him as the second-worst center in the NFL last season. This could be a battle in camp with Connor McGovern. Feeney does fit the zone blocking scheme better and could see a role at RG. There are some things to figure out with the interior line in New York.

RG Greg Van Roten – PFF 63.0, Pass Blocking 71.5, Run Blocking 54.4

Greg Van Roten has the slight edge entering the 2021 season over Alex Lewis, but this is another battle that will play out in the coming weeks. Van Roten played 100% of the snaps in 12 out of 13 games last season. Van Roten has bounced around the league with stints in Green Bay, Jacksonville, and Carolina. He even spent two years playing for the Toronto Argonauts in the CFL (2015-16).

RT George Fant – PFF 61.6, Pass Blocking 61.8, Run Blocking 56.9

George Fant finished 2020 ranked 69th out of 89 tackles which mirrors his 2019 production. Fant has struggled both in the pass and run game so if he wants to continue to get on the field, he is going to have to make big strides in 2021.

Overall Rank: 28th/32

QB Room

Zach Wilson (QB26)

Zach Wilson was selected second overall in the NFL Draft by the New York Jets. Wilson was a three-year starter at BYU before declaring early and taking his talents to the NFL. In 2020, Wilson started all 12 games for BYU and finished with 3,692 yards and 33 touchdowns while completing over 73% of his passes. Wilson has an electric arm that gives him the ability to make every throw in the NFL and to attack all areas of the field. It was no secret who the Jets wanted with the second overall pick in the draft and that’s high praise considering the QB talent coming out. The list after Trevor Lawrence included Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones. Wilson should absolutely flourish in Mike LaFleur’s offense and I believe he adjusts to the NFL game rather quickly. The question is, can this offensive line keep him upright? The Jets have landed their quarterback for the next 15 years.

Fantasy Outlook

Passing: 607 attempts, 66.1%, 4321 yards, 30 touchdowns

Rushing: 46 attempts, 241 yards, 1 touchdown

Total Fantasy Points: 298.9

New Toys: N/A

Old News: Sam Darnold

Position Fantasy Rank: 28th/32

RB Room

Michael Carter (RB53)

Michael Carter was selected in the fourth round out of North Carolina by the Jets to compete for the starting job with Tevin Coleman and La’Mical Perine. Early indications are that he’s doing just that by showing consistent flashes in the passing game and speed in the running game. The reality is that the Jets do not bolster an elite offensive line and will find themselves down in games early and often in 2021. That means they need somebody out of the backfield that can catch the rock and make guys miss in the open field. Carter is that dude. Expectations are high for Carter and he aims to please.

Fantasy Outlook

Rushing: 84 attempts, 354 yards, 3 touchdowns

Receiving: 24 targets, 18 receptions, 124 yards, 2 touchdowns

Fantasy Total Point: 96.0

Tevin Coleman (RB37)

Tevin Coleman was brought to New York by Mike LaFleur from San Francisco because he is familiar with the outside zone scheme. Tevin fits this scheme perfectly as a one cut back. The goal of the outside zone is to stretch the defense horizontally and forcing the linebackers and second level defenders to respect the outside threat thus giving the running back cut back lanes. Coleman has never rushed for 1,000 yards in a single season and has only played a full schedule once in his career back in 2018. He brings veteran leadership to the locker room and should be a solid contributor in 2021.

Fantasy Outlook

Rushing: 152 attempts, 652 yards, 5 touchdowns

Receiving: 36 targets, 26 receptions, 165 yards, 1 touchdown

Total Fantasy Points: 144.0

New Toys: N/A

Old News: Frank Gore (15/14)

Position Fantasy Rank: 21st/32

WR Room

Corey Davis (WR39)

Corey Davis is coming off his best season in the NFL after posting career highs in receptions (65), yards (984), touchdowns (5), yards per reception (15.1) and catch rate (70.3). Davis is 6’3 with an above average wing-span giving him the ability to be dangerous both in the red zone and when high pointing the football. Davis will immediately step into the WR1 role in New York so it’s paramount that he gets in extra work with rookie Zach Wilson.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 103 targets, 68 receptions, 905 yards, 8 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 206.6

Elijah Moore (WR49)

Elijah Moore was not necessarily a target for the Jets as they felt good about their wide receiver room going into the draft, but when Moore fell to them in the second round it was a no-brainer. There are several traits that I look for in an elite slot receiver. Speed, transition in and out of cuts, separation, and yards after catch to name a few. Moore excels in all of them. Moore absolutely dominated in his senior year at Ole Miss with 86 receptions, 1,193 yards, and an elite 84.3% catch rate. Oh, did I mention he had a 41.9% college dominator and a 36.7% target share? I have no doubt that Elijah Moore will make an immediate impact in New York.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 103 targets, 70 receptions, 757 yards, 6 touchdowns

Rushing: 8 attempts, 51 yards, 0 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 186.9

Keelan Cole (WR50)

Keelan Cole was signed by the New York Jets via free agency on a one-year $5.5 million deal. He should be the WR3 in this group and line up opposite Corey Davis with Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder taking the bulk of the snaps in the slot. He spent four years in Jacksonville suffering through multiple quarterback changes including Blake Bortles, Cory Kessler, Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon, Nick Foles, and Jake Luton.  He still managed to stay fantasy relevant in 2020 with a career high 55 receptions for 642 yards and five touchdowns. I have to believe he’s very happy to be in New York with a team that is on the rise and features a franchise quarterback in Zach Wilson.

Fantasy Outlook:

Receiving: 97 targets, 63 receptions, 814 yards, 6 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 180.4

New Toys: Keelan Cole

Old News: Breshad Perriman (12/12)

Position Fantasy Rank: 11th/32

TE Room

Tyler Kroft (TE30)

Tyler Kroft has now become the TE1 on this roster with the departure of Chris Herndon. Kroft was a third-round draft pick by the Cincinnati Bengals in 2015 after playing collegiately at Rutgers University. He spent four years with the Bengals totaling 95 targets, 67 receptions, 661 yards, and 8 touchdowns while starting 35 games. He had his best season in 2017 with 42 receptions for 404 yards and 7 touchdowns. He spent the last two years with the Buffalo Bills but struggled to make an impact finishing with only 18 receptions on 30 targets over that span while also missing 11 games. The Jets will need him to regain his 2017 form if he wants to make an impact in New York. There isn’t much competition for targets with Ryan Griffin, Trevon Wesco, and Daniel Brown.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 55 targets, 35 receptions, 341 yards, 2 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 81.5

Position Fantasy Rank: 29th/32

2021 Full Player Projections

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Strength of Schedule (SOS): #14 (.502 128-127)

2021 Predicted Finish: 4-13 (Last AFC East)

New York Jets 2021 projections

Note: all projections are PPR scoring

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