#Project32 – Chicago Bears

In support of: St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital
Chicago Bears 2021 projections
The mission of St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital is to advance cures, and means of prevention, for pediatric catastrophic diseases through research and treatment. Consistent with the vision of our founder Danny Thomas, no child is denied treatment based on race, religion or a family’s ability to pay.

Nominated by Nick Skrip (@P2WFantasy)
I chose St. Jude of course for the great cause they have for their foundation but also because my Nana who passed away and I was extremely close to was a frequent donor to them. So I would do that in her honor.

#Project32 Menu

2020 Recap

Division: NFC North

2020 Finish: 8-8 (2nd in NFC North)

2020 Tendencies:

  • Passing Ratio: 61% (6th)
  • Neutral Game Script: 57% (20th)
  • Offensive Scheme: West Coast

Personnel Groupings:

  • 11 Personnel (1RB, 1TE, 3WR) = 56%
  • 12 Personnel (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) = 19%
  • 01 Personnel (0RB, 1TE, 4WR) = 8%
  • 13 Personnel (1RB, 3TE, 1WR) = 6%
  • 02 Personnel (0RB, 2TE, 3WR) = 5%
  • 21 Personnel (2RB, 2TE, 1WR) = 1%
  • 22 Personnel (2RB, 2TE, 1WR) = 1%
  • 03 Personnel (0RB, 3TE, 2WR) = 1%

Coaching Room

Head Coach: Matt Nagy

Matt Nagy started his NFL coaching career with the Philadelphia Eagles from 2008-2012 where he started out as a Coaching Intern (2008-2009) before becoming a Coaches’ Assistant (2010) and the Offensive Quality Control Coach (2011-12). Nagy was then hired by the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013 and spent his first four years as a Quarterbacks Coach before being promoted in 2017 as the Offensive Coordinator. Nagy waited in the shadows as Andy Reid was the play caller for the first 11 games in 2017, but after a 1-5 stretch decided to turn the play-calling duties over to Matt Nagy. The Chiefs finished the season 4-1 with Nagy as the play-caller. Nagy was given a ton of credit for his work with Alex Smith who finished that season with a career high 26 touchdowns and over 4,000 yards passing. The Chiefs offense finished fifth in total yards, seventh in yards passing, ninth in yards rushing, and sixth in points scored. After the 2017 season, Andy Reid gave other teams permission to discuss head coaching opportunities with Nagy and he was hired by the Chicago Bears.  In his first year in Chicago (2018) the Bears went 12-4 and won the NFC North division before falling to the Eagles in the NFC Wild Card Game. The last two years were not as kind as the Bears finished 8-8 in both 2019 and 2020. However, the Bears did make the playoffs in 2020, but lost again in the NFC Wild Card Game to the New Orleans Saints. Many believe that Matt Nagy enters 2021 on the hot seat, but I’m not so sure that’s the case. The Bears now have their franchise quarterback in Justin Fields and have surrounded him with a unique set of skill players that this offense just might be ready to take off in 2021.

Overall Rank: 27th/32

OL Room

LT Teven Jenkins (Rookie)

Teven Jenkins was selected by the Bears in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft and should be a day one starter at left tackle after the Bears cut Charles Leno Jr. Jenkins was impressive at his Pro Day when he benched 225 pounds for 36 reps. He is  nasty at the point of attack and if he gets his fit with his hands, he can do some real damage.

LG Cody Whitehair – PFF 76.3, Pass Blocking 46.5, Run Blocking 85.6

Cody Whitehair split reps between left guard and center in 2020 and was selected by Pro Football Focus to be a breakout player in 2021. He played a total of 403 snaps at left guard and 490 at center. His overall grade in 2020 was 76.3, but he excelled when he played left guard with a pass blocking grade of 84.7.

C Sam Mustipher – PFF 58.9, Pass Blocking 55.2, Run Blocking 60.3

Sam Mustipher was called up from the practice squad and did well enough to be penciled in as the starting center when the Bears open the 2021 NFL season. The undrafted center out of Notre Dame has spent the offseason attacking the weight room training with former 14-year veteran and six time Pro-Bowler Olin Kreutz.

RG James Daniels – PFF 65.8, Pass Blocking 54.4, Run Blocking 71.0

James Daniels 2020 season was cut short due to a pectoral muscle tear. In 2019 he split time playing left guard (561 snaps) and center (508 snaps), but with Cody Whitehair plugged in at left guard and Sam Mustipher locked in at center the Bears will likely move Daniels to right guard.

RT Germain Ifedi – PFF 65.5, Pass Blocking 65.6, Run Blocking 70.2

Germain Ifedi comes into the 2021 season with high expectations from his offensive line coach, Juan Castillo who has stated he would not be surprised if Ifedi makes his first Pro Bowl in 2021. Ifedi spent his first four season in the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks and will be entering his second season with the Bears. Ifedi was moved from right guard to right tackle during the season last year to mix things up and the Bears offense found another gear. This unit just might be coming together.

New Toys: Elijah Wilkinson

Old News: Rashaad Coward (16/5), Charles Leno Jr (16/16), Bobbie Massie (8/8)

Overall Rank: 24th/32

QB Room

Justin Fields (QB13)

Did the Chicago Bears finally get their franchise quarterback? The Bears selected Justin Fields with the 11th overall pick after a trade with the New York Giants to move up nine spots.  Fields comes to the NFL as a dual threat quarterback that was 20-2 as a starter the last two seasons at Ohio State. In those two years Fields threw for 5,373 yards and 63 touchdowns while adding another 15 touchdowns on the ground. The only thing that could hold this offense back from reaching its full potential in 2021 is choosing to start Andy Dalton over Justin Fields. No…Bears fans do not want to talk about how they passed on Patrick Mahomes to take Mitchell Trubisky.

Fantasy Outlook

Passing: 591 attempts, 65.4%, 4149 yards, 29 touchdowns

Rushing: 80 attempts, 601 yards, 4 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 346.1

New Toys: Andy Dalton

Old News: Mitch Trubisky

Position Fantasy Rank: 14th/32

RB Room

David Montgomery (RB19)

David Montgomery started 8 games in his rookie year (2019) and turned that into 1,074 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns with an average of 4.0 yards per touch. He was even better in 2020 with 1,508 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns with an average of 5.0 yards per touch. He was among the league leaders in several metrics in 2020 including carries (247-4th), targets (68-6th), red zone touches (53-6th), rushing yards (1070-5th), receiving yards (438-4th),  receptions (54-5th), and routes run (374-1st). Montgomery is a volume guy. The more touches he gets the more productive he becomes, but with Tarik Cohen back healthy and the addition of Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert it will be interesting to see how the rushing shares play out.

Fantasy Outlook

Rushing: 267 attempts, 1203 yards, 8 touchdowns

Receiving: 53 targets, 37 receptions, 234 yards, 2 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 240.9

Tarik Cohen (RB70)

Tarik Cohen missed 13 games in 2020 and it may have cost him some touches in 2021. David Montgomery was able to showcase his receiving skills in Cohen’s absence. In 2018 and 2019, Cohen was a huge part of the passing game with 150 receptions and 1,181 yards receiving with 8 touchdowns, but I don’t think he comes close to those numbers in 2021 so we need to temper expectations.

Fantasy Outlook

Rushing: 22 attempts, 111 yards, 1 touchdown

Receiving: 30 targets, 19 receptions, 138 yards, 1 touchdown

Total Fantasy Points: 56.1

New Toys: Damien Williams, Khalil Herbert

Old News: N/A

Position Fantasy Rank: 23rd/32

WR Room

Allen Robinson (WR12)

Allen Robinson is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the game today. Over the last two years he has 305 targets, 200 receptions, 2,397 yards and 13 touchdowns with Mitch Trubisky, Chase Daniel, and Nick Foles at quarterback. That says all you need to know. Robinson has the potential to match his career high in receiving yards (1,400), receptions (102), and touchdowns (14) in 2021 with Justin Fields behind center.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 159 targets, 107 receptions, 1325 yards, 9 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 293.3

Darnell Mooney (WR46)

Darnell Mooney has been talked about as a star on the rise in the fantasy football community and I think that is an accurate assessment. In his rookie season he set the franchise record for most receptions by a rookie with 61 and looks to be even better in 2021. Mooney has elite speed (4.38) and the ability to take every catch to the house. He had five games with over 100 air yards and finished the 2020 regular season against the Green Bay Packers with 11 receptions for 93 yards.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 106 targets, 69 receptions, 857 yards, 6 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 190.8

New Toys: Damiere Byrd, Marquise Goodwin

Old News: Cordarelle Patterson (16/3)

Position Fantasy Rank: 20th/32

TE Room

Cole Kmet (TE18)

Cole Kmet was drafted 43rd overall in the 2nd round by the Chicago Bears out of Notre Dame. In his rookie season Kmet had 28 receptions for 243 yards and two touchdowns. We are probably another year away from truly seeing Kmet’s value in this offense because the Bears chose to keep Jimmy Graham in 2021 when they could have saved $7 million by cutting him. However, I do think Kmet doubles his receptions and yards from last season in 2021.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 89 targets, 56 receptions, 569 yards, 5 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 142.7

New Toys: N/A

Old News: N/A

Position Fantasy Rank: 19th/32

2021 Full Player Projections

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Strength of Schedule (SOS): #3 (.553 141-114-1)

2021 Predicted Finish: 9-8 (2nd NFC North)

Chicago Bears 2021 projections

Note: all projections are PPR scoring

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