#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
In support of Leukemia & Lymphoma Society, the 2020 ‘My Cause My Cleats’ pick of breakout wide receiver Darnell Mooney
LLS is at the forefront of the fight to cure cancer. Compared to other blood cancer nonprofits, LLS is the largest funder of cutting-edge research to advance cures. We have invested nearly $1.3 billion in research. We are leaders in advancing breakthroughs in immunotherapy, genomics and personalized medicine. This research saves lives. These revolutionary new treatments originally discovered through blood cancer research are now being tested in clinical trials for other cancers.
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- Division: NFC North
- 2021 Finish: 6-11
- Divisional Record: 2-4
- 2022 Projected Finish: 5-12
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 4th
Chicago Bears Offense
Play Caller: Luke Getsy
Luke Getsy spent two years in Green Bay under Matt LaFleur as the quarterbacks’ coach and passing game coordinator before being named the offensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears. Getsy will use a zone run scheme to set up more play-action and RPO concepts that play to Justin Fields’ strengths. If Justin Fields can be great at the mesh point when reading RPO action, it will open up this offense for Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney. This will also allow David Montgomery to get going in the run game because linebackers will not be able to play downhill as much in fear of guessing wrong. Look for Getsy to move the pocket more with Fields to get him in an open space where he can play pitch and catch or create yards with his legs. There is a lot of work to do with the offensive line, but if Getsy can scheme and trust Fields to make the right decisions consistently, there is an opportunity for this offense to take a big step in the right direction.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 311 (27th)
- Total Yards: 5,225 (24th)
- Total Plays: 1,075 (18th)
- Yards Per Play: 4.9 (26th)
- 1st Downs: 333 (19th), Passing 180 (22nd), Rushing 119 (13th)
- Scoring Rate: 31.5% (26th)
- Turnover Rate: 15.2% (30th)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 63.2 (18th)
- Pace of Play: 29.4 Seconds Per Play (21st)
- Passing Ratio: 56% (21st)
- Neutral Game Script: 53% (23rd)
- RPO: 91 Snaps – 36.3% Success Rate
- Motion: 417 Plays – 32.6% Success Rate
- No Huddle: 116 Plays – 41.4% Success Rate
- Play Action: 151 Plays – 39.7% Success Rate
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 306 Targets (24th)
RBs: 91 Targets (29th)
TEs: 127 Targets (11th)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 700 Plays
OVR: 65% (45% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 63% (40% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 37% (53% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 256 Plays
OVR: 24% (45% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 42% (45% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 58% (46% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #70 Braxton Jones
Age: 23 HT: 6’5 WT: 310 College: Southern Utah Draft: RD5 Pick 168
OVR PFF: 93.9 Pass: 90.0 Run: 94.5 (Zone), 72.5 (Gap)
Contract: 4 years / $989,887 per year (66th at position) – Expires 2026
LG: #65 Cody Whitehair
Age: 30 HT: 6’3 WT: 316 College: Kansas State Draft: RD2 Pick 56
OVR PFF: 66.2 Pass: 61.3 Run: 66.3 (1,121 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $10,250,000 per year (5th at position) – Expires 2025
C: #62 Lucas Patrick
Age: 29 HT: 6’3 WT: 313 College: Duke Draft: UDFA
OVR PFF: 57.2 Pass: 67.3 Run: 52.8 (911 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $4,000,000 per year (14th at position) – Expires 2024
RG: #64 Michael Schofield
Age: 31 HT: 6’4 WT: 303 College: Michigan Draft: RD3 Pick 95
OVR PFF: 66.8 Pass: 75.2 Run: 59.5 (907 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $1,120,000 per year (40th at position) – Expires 2023
RT: #78 Riley Reiff
Age: 33 HT: 6’6 WT: 313 College: Iowa Draft: RD1 Pick 23
OVR PFF: 67.3 Pass: 58.4 Run: 70.0 (711 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $3,000,000 per year (35th at position) – Expires 2023
“I’m convinced that if he would have had a better support system and a head coach that was committed to him early, things could have been very different”
QB Room
#1 Justin Fields
Age: 23 HT: 6’3 WT: 228 College: Ohio State Draft: RD1 Pick 11
Contract: 3 years / $4,717,988 per year (32nd at position) – Expires 2025 – 5th year option available
Everything that could have gone wrong for Justin Fields went wrong in 2021. It all started when Matt Nagy promised Andy Dalton that he was his guy and then drafted Justin Fields to be the franchise’s future. It wasn’t that Fields wasn’t ready to play at the NFL level. From a quarterback perspective, he came from a Ryan Day offense at Ohio State that gets you as pro-ready as any team in college football. He was simply drafted by a team with no idea how to use his talents. Fields wasn’t going to win OROY in this offense, which should have never been the expectation, but I’m convinced that if he had had a better support system and a head coach that was committed to him early, things could have been very different. The Bears still have a long way to go from a personnel standpoint on offense, but Justin Fields should take a significant step forward in 2022.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 514 Attempts, 62.1% Comp Rate, 3,540 Yards (6.9 YPA), 23 Touchdowns (4.5%)
Rushing: 109 Attempts, 7.2 YPC, 788 Yards, 5 Touchdowns
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#32 David Montgomery
Age: 25 HT: 5’11 WT: 224 College: Iowa State Draft: RD3 Pick 73
Contract: 1 year / $1,003,845 per year (95th at position) – Expires 2023
David Montgomery doesn’t blow you away when you watch his tape, but he has always found a way to be productive. He missed four games in 2021 but still finished with 849 yards rushing and seven touchdowns on the ground while also catching 42 balls for another 301 yards. In his three seasons in the NFL, he’s never finished a season with less than 1,000 total yards and seven touchdowns. However, his career average of only 3.9 yards per carry over his first three seasons leaves much to be desired. He’s a volume play behind an offensive line that Pro Football Network ranks dead last in the NFL. Montgomery is in the final year of his rookie contract, so it’s a prove-it year in 2022.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 13% Target Share, 67 Targets, 50 Receptions, 376 yards (7.5 YPR), 1 Touchdown
Rushing: 48% Rush Share, 210 Attempts, 841 Yards (4.0 YPC), 7 Touchdowns
#24 Khalil Herbert
Age: 24 HT: 5’9 WT: 212 College: Virginia Tech Draft: RD6 Pick 217
Contract: 3 years / $902,676 per year (125th at position) – Expires 2025
You could say Matt Nagy had a type regarding the running back position. Khalil Herbert and Montgomery are only separated by about two inches and 10 pounds. They can both run between the tackles and bring a blue-collar mentality to the running back position. Montgomery seems to be the more polished pass-catcher, but Herbert gets a little more sudden to the run game. According to Andrew Erickson at Fantasy Pros, Herbert started four games when Montgomery was injured and ran for over 72 yards in every start. Montgomery only did that four times all season. I expect the Bears to give Montgomery every opportunity to be the lead back in Chicago, but if he slips, Herbert will be there to take advantage of the opportunity.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 5% Target Share, 26 Targets, 19 Receptions, 139 Yards (7.3 YPR), 0 Touchdowns
Rushing: 24% Rush Share, 105 Attempts, 441 Yards (4.2 YPC), 4 Touchdowns
WR Room
#11 Darnell Mooney
Age: 24 HT: 5’11 WT: 173 College: Tulane Draft: RD5 Pick 173
Contract: 2 years / $894,262 per year (224th at position) – Expires 2024
One of the few bright spots in an otherwise ugly season was the rise of Darnell Mooney in 2021. He finished his sophomore campaign with 140 targets, 81 receptions, 1,055 yards, and four touchdowns. There is zero competition in the wide receiver room for targets. If all Mooney does is improve his catch rate and touchdown rate on the same number of targets, he takes another big step as a top-end wide receiver in the NFL. Mooney is not just fast (4.38), he’s become more of a tactician with his route running and does a great job of creating separation to give his quarterback route side space. He ranked in the top twenty in several metrics, including target share (26.7%), routes run (513), deep targets (23), air yards (1,479), and yards per pass attempt (1.95). Mooney will set new career-highs in 2022 if he stays healthy.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 29% Target Share, 149 Targets, 94 Receptions, 1,240 Yards (13.2 YPR), 9 Touchdowns
“There isn’t much to see here, but Fields will have no choice but to throw his way when coverage dictates”
#13 Byron Pringle
Age: 28 HT: 6’1 WT: 203 College: Kansas State Draft: UDFA
Contract: 1 year / $4,125,000 per year (51st at position) – Expires 2023
Byron Pringle had his best season in 2021 with the Kansas City Chiefs. In just his third season, he finished with 60 targets, 42 receptions, 568 yards, and five touchdowns. He now lands in Chicago and instantly plugs in as the WR2 in two receiver sets. With that said, he will be the third option in an offense featuring Mooney and Cole Kmet in the passing game. There isn’t much to see here, but Fields will have no choice but to throw his way when coverage dictates.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 13% Target Share, 67 Targets, 39 Receptions, 519 Yards (13.3 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
#12 Velus Jones Jr.
Age: 25 HT: 6’0 WT: 200 College: Tennessee Draft: RD3 Pick 71
Contract: 4 years / $1,351,481 per year (111th at position) – Expires 2026
Velus Jones Jr. spent six seasons in college football before getting drafted in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He spent his first four seasons at USC and collected only 36 receptions for 347 yards and one touchdown. He would transfer to Tennessee for another two years and finished his final season with 62 receptions for 807 yards and seven touchdowns. In total, he amassed just 120 receptions for 1,434 yards and eleven touchdowns. To put that in perspective, Devonta Smith finished his senior season at Alabama with 117 receptions for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns. They are not the same. Tread lightly.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 10% Target Share, 51 Targets, 28 Receptions, 334 Yards (11.9 YPR), 2 Touchdowns
TE Room
#85 Cole Kmet
Age: 23 HT: 6’6 WT: 260 College: Notre Dame Draft: RD2 Pick 43
Contract: 2 years / $1,894,447 per year (43rd at position) – Expires 2024
This is the year Cole “How I” Kmet “Your Mother” becomes a household name in the fantasy community. He’s the Robin to Mooney’s Batman in this offense. He parlayed 93 targets in 2021 into 60 grabs for 612 yards but never sniffed the endzone. He smelled it, but he didn’t catch a football or run into it. You get my point. Naturally, there will be positive regression in the touchdown department, and we should see Kmet finish as a Top 8 tight end in 2022. Targets matter. In 2021, he finished eighth in targets (8), sixth in snap share (83.7%), fifth in slot snaps (253), sixth in deep targets (9), and ninth in air yards (737). He’s 6’6, runs a 4.7, and finished in the 84th and 88th percentile in speed score and burst score, respectively. He’s a big deal now.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 19% Target Share, 98 Targets, 68 Receptions, 725 Yards (10.7 YPR), 6 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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