In support of: Big Shoulders Fund
We provide support to inner-city schools which provide a quality, values-based education for Chicago’s children.
Big Shoulders Fund is unique in that our administrative expenses are supported by an endowment and other income. One hundred percent of funds currently raised support four major areas – scholarships and enrichment, operational improvements, academic programs, and leadership development – with the goal of not just strengthening schools, but whole communities, and preparing students for life-long success.
Nominated by John McGlynn (@JohnMcGlynn75)
#Project32 Menu
2020 Recap
Division: NFC South
2020 Finish: 5-11 (3rd in NFC South)
2020 Tendencies:
- Passing Ratio: 57% (15th)
- Neutral Game Script: 59% (14th)
- Offensive Scheme: Play Action
Personnel Groupings:
- 11 Personnel (1RB, 1TE, 3WR) = 57%
- 12 Personnel (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) = 17%
- 21 Personnel (2RB, 1TE, 2WR) = 7%
- 22 Personnel (2RB, 2TE, 1WR) = 5%
- 01 Personnel (0RB, 1TE, 4WR) = 5%
- 13 Personnel (1RB, 3TE, 1WR) = 4%
- 10 Personnel (1RB, 0TE, 4WR) = 2%
- 02 Personnel (0RB, 2TE, 3WR) = 1%
- 00 Personnel (0RB, 0TE, 5WR) = 1%
- 23 Personnel (2RB, 3TE, 0WR) = 1%
- 03 Personnel (0RB, 2TE, 3WR) = 1%
Coaching Room
Head Coach: Matt Rhule
Matt Rhule finished his first season in Carolina at 5-11 which landed the Panthers in 3rd place in the NFC South. This is right in line with how his first year went at both Temple and Baylor before turning those programs around and landing a head coaching job in the NFL. In his four years at Temple, Rhule went 2-10 (2013), 6-6 (2014), 10-4 (2015), and 10-3 (2016) before leaving the Owls to be the head coach at Baylor University. In his three years at Baylor he went 1-11 (2017), 7-6 (2018) and 11-3 (2019) before becoming the head coach in Carolina. See a trend? The Panthers record in 2020 doesn’t sound exciting, but you have to consider that he only had Christian McCaffrey for three games and did not have a full off-season due to COVID-19 restrictions. Fast forward to the NFL Draft where the Panthers selected 11 players including wide receiver Terrace Marshall Jr, Tackle Brady Christensen, tight end Tommy Tremble, running back Chuba Hubbard, guard Deonte Brown, and wide receiver Shi Smith. The offensive line is still a major concern, but he addressed that in the draft. I don’t expect much of a jump, if at all, in terms of the overall record in 2021, but I do think Rhule has this team going in the right direction. He has a knack for taking teams in bad situations and turning them into winners.
Offensive Coordinator: Joe Brady
Joe Brady was impressive in year one considering the league’s best running back only played in three games and the offensive line was not good. Despite that, the offense produced four players that had over 1,000 total yards including Mike Davis (1,015), Curtis Samuel (1,051), Robby Anderson (1,111), and D.J. Moore (1,215). With the addition of Sam Darnold, who replaces Teddy Bridgewater, we should see a more vertical passing game and 11 personnel (20th in 2020) which was a staple for Joe Brady in 2019 at LSU. The key to success for this team in 2021 hinges on the offensive line.
Overall Rank: 21st/32
OL Room
LT Cam Erving – PFF 58.0, Pass Blocking 69.2, Run Blocking 48.0
Cam Erving filled in for an injured Tyron Smith in Dallas last season and did not fare well overall and in the run game. Erving is a former first-round pick and played for Cleveland, Kansas City, and Dallas before arriving in Carolina. He brings versatility to this offensive line having played all five positions during his career, but he has only played in all 16 games once in his career and never started more than 13. Erving will be in a position battle with rookie Brady Christensen who was impressive at BYU and has third-round draft capital.
LG Pat Elflein – PFF 48.0, Pass Blocking 30.5, Run Blocking 56.1
Pat Elflein ranked 73rd and 78th in overall PFF and pass-blocking grade respectively over 419 snaps including 367 at left guard and 52 at right guard. He arrived in Carolina after signing as a free agent, but he needs to improve his pass blocking, or he could be replaced by rookie Deonte Brown.
C Matt Paradis – PFF 63.4, Pass Blocking 65.4, Run Blocking 59.6
Matt Paradis ranked 20th overall in PFF grade out of 36 centers graded. He has not been the productive center he was in Denver since his arrival in Carolina, but he did improve in pass protection giving up only 19 pressures compared to 47 the previous year.
RG John Miller – PFF 61.2, 62.7 Pass Blocking, 59.8 Run Blocking
John Miller was a third-round draft pick by the Buffalo Bills in 2015 out of the University of Louisville. He spent four seasons in Buffalo (2015-2018) and started 47 games during that time. He then played one season for the Cincinnati Bengals where he started 13 games at right guard and finished with a 58.6 Overall PFF Grade. In his first season with the Carolina Panthers he finished 50th in Overall PFF Grade, 33rd in Pass Block Grade, and 47th in Run Block Grade.
RT Taylor Moton – PFF 81.6, Pass Blocking 77.9, Run Blocking 76.3
Taylor Moton ranked 13th overall in PFF grade for tackles in 2020. He is the strongest link on the offensive line and has performed as a top-20 tackle for three consecutive years. He is as close to a sure-thing as you will find with this group.
New Toys: N/A
Old News: Russell Okung (7/7), Chris Reed (14/14), Michael Schofield (11/3)
Overall Rank: 31st/32
QB Room
Sam Darnold (QB21)
Sam Darnold was a third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft and the Jets thought they had their franchise quarterback. Things did not go as planned as Darnold struggled to win over the locker room and finished his career in New York at 13-25 as a starter with only 45 touchdowns and 39 interceptions in 38 career starts. He never threw for more than 19 touchdowns or 3,100 yards in any of his three years in New York. So why did the Panthers give up three draft picks including a 2021 sixth rounder, and a second and fourth round pick in 2022? It is believed that Joe Brady and Matt Rhule can tap into the potential that Darnold showed coming out of USC. Darnold walks into a locker room loaded with talent at the skill positions including Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Terrace Marshall jr to name a few. The Panthers want to get back to an offense that Joe Brady led at LSU that pushes the ball down-field and takes advantage of mismatches in the passing game and if that fails, just hand it off or dump it off to Christian McCaffrey. I project Carolina to be playing from behind a lot in 2021 so Darnold will get his chance to prove the doubters wrong. I believe he will.
Fantasy Outlook
Passing: 593 attempts, 65.3%, 4568 yards, 30 touchdowns
Rushing: 45 attempts, 224 yards, 1 touchdown
Total Fantasy Points: 307.1
New Toys: N/A
Old News: Teddy Bridgewater (15/15)
Position Fantasy Rank: 23rd/32
RB Room
Christian McCaffrey (RB1)
Christian McCaffrey, son of long-time NFL wide receiver Ed McCaffrey, simply can do it all. McCaffrey became a full-time starter at Stanford his sophomore season in 2015 and turned that into 2,664 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns on offense and added another 1,200 yards on special teams as a return specialist where he took a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns. He set the NCAA record for most all-purpose yards in a season with 3,864. He ended his college career with 6,987 all purpose yards. His versatility made him the 8th overall selection in the 2017 NFL Draft and things haven’t changed much in the NFL. Christian McCaffrey in just four years has amassed 3,145 rushing yards and 2,672 receiving yards for a total of 5,817 scrimmage yards and 45 touchdowns. He averages 4.6 yards per carry and 5.8 yards per touch with an 80.4% catch rate while accumulating over 320 receptions in just 51 games (6.3 per game). As a running back. He is simply the best dual threat running back in the NFL and it’s not close.
Fantasy Outlook
Rushing: 304 attempts, 1339 yards, 11 touchdowns
Receiving: 131 targets, 101 receptions, 844 yards, 6 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 420.9
Chuba Hubbard (RB60)
Chuba Hubbard chose to play in 2020 while other top collegiate players like Ja’Marr Chase and Kenny Gainwell chose to opt out due to COVID-19. This decision caused Hubbard’s stock to take a major hit as he was not the same player in 2020 as he was in 2019. In 2019, Hubbard rushed for 2,094 (6.4 ypc) yards with 21 touchdowns and he was projected as one of the top running backs in the 2021 draft class. In 2020 he played in seven games and rushed for only 625 yards and didn’t appear to have the same burst he did the previous season. The Panthers drafted him 126th overall in the 4th round and if Hubbard can get back to 2019 form he could be a great handcuff if anything happens to CMC, but let’s be clear, if CMC stays healthy, Hubbard will see a limited role with the Panthers.
Fantasy Outlook
Rushing: 72 attempts, 301 yards, 2 touchdowns
Receiving: 24 targets, 17 receptions, 96 yards, 1 touchdown
Total Fantasy Points: 74.3
New Toys: N/A
Old News: Mike Davis (15/12)
Position Fantasy Rank: 3rd/32
WR Room
DJ Moore (WR14)
DJ Moore has quickly become one of the best wide receivers in the league. He can lineup anywhere on the field (128 snaps out of the slot) and make an impact. He had a 24.1% target share (18th), 1,575 air yards (15th), 26 deep targets (6th), and averaged 18.1 yards per reception (4th) and 10.1 yards per target (10th) in 2020. This equated to 66 receptions for 1,193 yards and with the addition of Sam Darnold and a healthy McCaffrey I expect to see even more production from Moore in 2021. Simply put, he’s special.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 131 targets, 85 receptions, 1417 yards, 8 touchdowns
Rushing: 9 attempts, 86 yards, 0 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 283.1
Robby Anderson (WR53)
Robby Anderson had his best year in 2020 with 136 targets, 95 receptions, and 1,096 yards with a catch rate of 69.9%. Robby quickly built a relationship with Teddy Bridgewater and became his safety blanket with Christian McCaffrey sidelined for 13 games. I do expect a dip with the emergence of D.J. Moore, the addition of Terrace Marshall Jr, and a healthy McCaffrey back in the lineup.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 107 targets, 64 receptions, 763 yards, 5 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 170.3
Terrace Marshall Jr (WR60)
Terrace Marshall Jr was selected 59th overall in the 2nd round of the 2021 NFL Draft and expects to make an immediate impact as the WR3 in Carolina. He has played with Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson at LSU so he’s no stranger to being a very good complimentary piece. Marshall can line up anywhere on the field and shows great physicality and run after the catch ability. I expect the Panthers to use more 11 personnel now that they have three quality wide receivers in the mix not to mention the addition of David Moore. This will be a fun group to watch.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 95 targets, 57 receptions, 729 yards, 5 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 159.9
New Toys: David Moore
Old News: Curtis Samuel (15/5)
Position Fantasy Rank: 17th/32
TE Room
Dan Arnold (TE33)
Dan Arnold was a seldom used tight end during his first three years in the NFL, but 2020 he finally got valuable reps and did not disappoint. Arnold was targeted 45 times and turned that into 31 receptions for 438 yards and four touchdowns. He should be the TE1 for Carolina, but he will share time with Ian Thomas. I do not expect Arnold to continue to increase his production from last season as he steps into an offense that only targeted the tight end position 8% of the time and features one of the better wide receiver rooms and pass-catching running backs in the NFL.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 47 targets, 30 receptions, 323 yards, 2 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 74.2
New Toys: Tommy Tremble (R)
Old News: Chris Manhertz (16/12)
Position Fantasy Rank: 31st/32
2021 Full Player Projections
Make Your Own Projections With Our Template!
Strength of Schedule (SOS): #21 (.486 124-131-1)
2021 Predicted Finish: 6-11 (Last NFC South)
Note: all projections are PPR scoring
