In support of: Born This Way Foundation
Born This Way Foundation, co-founded and led by Lady Gaga and her mother, Cynthia Germanotta, supports the mental health of young people and works with them to create a kinder and braver world. Through high impact programming, youth led conversations and strategic, cross-sectoral partnerships, we aim to make kindness cool, validate the emotions of young people, and eliminate the stigma surrounding mental health.
Nominated by Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls)
2020 Recap
Division: AFC East
2020 Finish: 13-2 (1st in AFC East)
2020 Tendencies:
- Passing Ratio: 59% (11th)
- Neutral Game Script: 63% (3rd)
- Offensive Scheme: West Coast
Personnel Groupings:
- 11 Personnel (1RB, 1TE, 3WR) = 71%
- 10 Personnel (1RB, 0TE, 4WR) = 15%
- 12 Personnel (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) = 8%
- 13 Personnel (1RB, 3TE, 1WR) = 3%
- 22 Personnel (2RB, 2TE, 1WR) = 1%
- 00 Personnel (0RB, 0TE, 5WR) = 1%
Coaching Room
Head Coach: Sean McDermott
Sean McDermott started his NFL coaching career with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2001 as an assistant to the head coach and would take on many other roles during his ten years with the Eagles including assistant defensive backs coach, secondary coach, linebackers coach, and defensive coordinator. In 2011 he was hired by the Carolina Panthers to be their defensive coordinator and would hold that position for six years before landing his first NFL head coaching gig with the Buffalo Bills. In his four seasons in Buffalo he’s compiled a 40-29 record (includes playoffs) that includes an AFC East Division Title, three trips to the playoffs, and a trip to the AFC Championship Game for the first time in 27 years. The Buffalo Bills, under McDermott’s leadership, head into the 2021 season with expectations of getting to, and winning, the Super Bowl.
Offensive Coordinator: Brian Daboll
Brian Daboll interviewed with the Los Angeles Chargers and New York Jets this past off-season, but those teams chose to go another direction and hired Brandon Staley and Robert Saleh, respectively. This is great news for the Buffalo Bills as Daboll has made quite the impression on this team both as a creative and innovative play-caller, and more importantly, as a coach that key players like Josh Allen have built a tremendous relationship with. The Bills offense finished the 2020 season ranked second in points scored (501), second in yards (6,343), third in passing yards (4,620), and fourth in passing touchdowns (40). This passing attack, led by Josh Allen, has gone away from routes that stop in the middle of the field and instead uses deep crossing routes and other longer developing routes that stretch a defense vertically and allows their receivers to run away from coverage. Daboll, like most NFL teams, uses a lot of 11 personnel with the tight end either inline or playing fullback or H-back to create plus protection and giving Allen time to deliver the football. It doesn’t hurt when you have Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, and Gabriel Davis to work with.
Overall Rank: 2nd/32
OL Room
LT Dion Dawkins – PFF 80.6, Pass Blocking 79.2, Run Blocking 75.1
Dion Dawkins has not missed a start since his rookie season and had his best season as a pro in 2020 according to Pro Football Focus scoring an 80.6 in Overall PFF Grade. Dawkins graded out in the top 25% in both Pass Block Grade and Run Block Grade, but he did give up six sacks and 33 total pressures so there is room for improvement heading into his fifth season.
LG Jon Feliciano – PFF 64.3, Pass Blocking 45.0, Run Blocking 76.1
Jon Feliciano struggled to find consistent playing time in his first four seasons in the NFL with only eight starts in his first 48 games, but since joining the Bills prior to the 2019 season, he has started 25 games. Feliciano finished with the highest Run Block Grade on the team but struggles in the passing game finishing 7th out of 81 players graded at the guard position.
C Mitch Morse – PFF 63.3, Pass Blocking 71.1, Run Blocking 59.6
Mitch Morse has started 79 games in his six seasons in the NFL since being drafted in the second round of the 2015 NFL Draft out of the University of Missouri. He fares much better in the passing game than he does in the run game which is better than the alternative in this offense.
RG Cody Ford – PFF 53.8, Pass Blocking 48.4, Run Blocking 56.7
Cody Ford has been anything but spectacular in his first two seasons grading out with a 50.3 and 53.8 Overall PFF Grade in 2019 and 2020, respectively. To make matters worse he has not played well at all in the passing game grading out as the 69th ranked guard in the NFL. The interior of this line is where defenses can be disruptive, so Ford, Morse, and Feliciano need to step up and improve their play in 2021.
RT Daryl Williams – PFF 79.2, Pass Blocking 80.1, Run Blocking 74.6
Daryl Williams has played multiple positions on the offensive line during his career but had his best two seasons when he was able to play right tackle for a full season. Williams finished 21st in Overall PFF Grade, 20th in Run Block Grade, and 16th in Pass Block Grade while starting all 16 games in 2020. Williams and Dawkins are one of the best tackle tandems in the NFL and they are the strength of this offensive line.
New Toys: Jamil Douglas, Bobby Hart, Forrest Lamp
Old News: Brian Winters (16/9), Ty Nsekhe (15/0)
Overall Rank: 10th/32
QB Room
Josh Allen (QB1)
Josh Allen was the seventh overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft out of the University of Wyoming. There were some concerns about his accuracy coming out of college, but he finished the 2020 season completing 69.2% of his passes while also throwing for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns. Allen has been great in the run game as well rushing for 1,562 yards and 25 touchdowns. He was selected to his first Pro Bowl in 2020 and was in the MVP conversation throughout the season. With the addition of Emmanuel Sanders to go with Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Cole Beasley, this offense should be firing on all cylinders and is built to compete for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl in 2021.
Fantasy Outlook
Passing: 634 attempts, 69.6%, 5127 yards, 34 touchdowns
Rushing: 109 attempts, 568 yards, 9 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 429.9
New Toys: Mitch Trubisky
Old News: Matt Barkley
Position Fantasy Rank: 1st/32
RB Room
Devin Singletary (RB34)
Devin Singletary started all 16 games in 2020 and finished with 687 yards rushing and two touchdowns with an average of 4.4 yards per carry on the ground and 38 receptions for 269 yards in the passing game. This will be an open competition with Zack Moss for the RB1 spot heading into camp and through the pre-season. It is believed that Zack Moss could be the early down back and get more touches in the red zone, but Singletary has the advantage in the passing game and that could be the difference in terms of fantasy output.
Fantasy Outlook
Rushing: 131 attempts, 616 yards, 4 touchdowns
Receiving: 57 targets, 41 receptions, 296 yards, 2 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 168.3
Zack Moss (RB42)
Zack Moss should get the first opportunity to win this backfield competition, but he struggled with injuries in college and missed three games early in his rookie season. He finished 2020 with 481 yards rushing and four touchdowns but was not very effective in the passing game with only 18 targets over 13 games played. Moss did finish seventh in both yards created per touch (1.71) and juke rate (29.4%) at the running back position so if he can stay healthy and see enough volume he could see the bulk of the work on the ground.
Fantasy Outlook
Rushing: 149 attempts, 669 yards, 6 touchdowns
Receiving: 19 targets, 14 receptions, 85 yards, 1 touchdown
Total Fantasy Points: 131.1
New Toys: Matt Breida
Old News: T.J. Yeldon (3/0)
Position Fantasy Rank: 32nd/32
WR Room
Stefon Diggs (WR2)
Stefon Diggs was everything the Buffalo Bills needed him to be and so much more in 2020. He finished the season with career highs in targets (166), receptions (127), yards (1,535), and catch rate (76.5%) on his way to his first Pro Bowl and First-Team All-Pro selection. He has a complete route tree and excels in creating route side space and using multiple route variations to keep defensive backs off balance. With the NFL moving to 17 games there is a real possibility that Stefon Diggs threatens the single season receptions record set by Michael Thomas who had 149 in 2019.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 190 targets, 139 receptions, 1694 yards, 10 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 368.2
Cole Beasley (WR37)
Cole Beasley has become one of the best slot receivers in the NFL when it comes to working underneath coverages and finding bubbles of space against zone defenses. If you don’t think he’s one of the best, just ask him and he’ll tell you. Beasley has made a lot of noise on social media this off-season and through training camp, but if we just talk about what he does on the field he seems to be getting better with age. In 2020, he finished with career highs in targets (107), receptions (82), yards (967), catch rate (76.6%), and yards per target (9.0) which is saying a lot for someone that has played nine seasons and played in 133 games. He is such a great compliment to what Brian Daboll wants to do with this offense and now with Emmanuel Sanders and the emergence of Gabriel Davis, there should be plenty of room for Beasley to work in 2021.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 114 targets, 80 receptions, 934 yards, 6 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 209.3
Gabriel Davis (WR73)
Gabriel Davis is becoming the vertical stretch guy in this offense and that fits well with what they can do in terms of route concepts and full field reads. Davis finished his rookie season with 35 receptions, 599 yards, and seven touchdowns with an average of 17.1 yards per reception and 9.7 yards per target. The Bills did bring in savvy veteran Emmanuel Sanders who will absolutely be involved in this offense so it will be interesting to see how that affects Davis’ snap count and targets in 2021.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 70 targets, 42 receptions, 699 yards, 5 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 141.7
New Toys: Emmanuel Sanders, Brandon Powell
Old News: John Brown (9/8), Andre Roberts (15/0)
Position Fantasy Rank: 2nd/32
TE Room
Dawson Knox (TE24)
Dawson Knox struggled to make the leap in year two that many believed he would, and the Bills have brought in Jacob Hollister to compete for the starting job. The reality is that the Buffalo Bills simply do not use the tight end like most offenses in the NFL. The Bills only targeted the TE position 59 times in 2020 which was only 11% of the total target shares. Not to mention you will see them use the tight end as a fullback and/or H-back more often than any other team in the NFL to create plus protection in the passing game and an additional blocker in the run game.
Fantasy Outlook
Receiving: 57 targets, 37 receptions, 441 yards, 4 touchdowns
Total Fantasy Points: 105.2
New Toys: Jacob Hollister
Old News: Tyler Kroft (10/4), Lee Smith (10/2)
Position Fantasy Rank: 27th/32
2021 Full Player Projections
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Strength of Schedule (SOS): #23 (.480 123-133)
2021 Predicted Finish: 13-4 (1st AFC East)
Note: all projections are PPR scoring
