Preston Williams: A Fantasy Stud In 2020?
The Miami Dolphins 2019 season was interesting, to say the least. The consensus was that they were tanking for Tua, who they ended up picking in the draft. However, over their last nine games, they won five of them. There were two other games in 2019 that the Dolphins lost by a point. They were extremely close to finishing with the same record as the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos.
See Where Preston Williams Lands In Our 2020 Fantasy Draft Rankings!
Brian Flores is a good coach. He finds diamonds in the rough. The brightest of those diamonds last season was Preston Williams. The undrafted rookie suffered an ACL tear in Week 9 but showed he belonged in the NFL in eight games. He caught 32 balls for 428 yards and three touchdowns, against some of the best defenses in the league.
His teammate, Devante Parker, is being ranked and drafted as a low-end WR2 at WR24. Williams is going considerably later at WR50. However, Preston Williams could out-produce Parker in 2020 fantasy points during his sophomore breakout season.
He Was The Alpha
For the first half of the season, whilst Williams and Parker were both healthy, Williams was targeted eight more times than his teammate. Players don’t get targets given to them, they earn volume. Williams earned his targets game after game, using his huge 6-4 frame and sneaky athleticism to get open.
Parker was more efficient, averaging a yard more per reception and snatching one more reception. He is also four years older and last season was his fifth in the league. Williams was an undrafted rookie learning the offense and still adjusting to the NFL.
There’s a seven-round ADP gap between DeVante Parker (WR25) and Preston Williams (WR51) in @FFPC leagues.
That’s egregiously wide.
When Williams was injured after 8 games last year, he had more targets, catches, yards, end zone targets (8 to 3) and FF points than Parker. https://t.co/5XDYjPHACb
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) August 24, 2020
Williams didn’t just burn bad defenses. In Week 2 he faced the Patriots, who were the league’s best passing defense in the first half of the season. The rookie snagged four balls for 63 yards whilst being covered by Stephon Gilmore, per PlayerProfiler. Parker didn’t catch a single one of his six targets that game, despite being covered by the lower quality defender.
The rookie receiver continued to impress, facing four more top tier cornerbacks. Against all of these elite defenders (Gilmore, Quinton Dunbar, Joe Haden, Casey Hayward, and Byron Jones), Williams averaged 50 yards a game (800 yards over a full season). It wasn’t a case of Williams taking advantage of second-string defensive backs, he showed out and demanded the targets whilst taking on the opposing teams’ best defenders.
Williams dominated the red zone opportunities, being targeted ten times to Parker’s six. Parker had zero targets within the ten-yard line, whereas Williams was used three times. While both were healthy, Williams was the clear WR1 for the Dolphins. He was the alpha in the receiving core.
Unfortunate Circumstances
Williams was unfortunate enough to get injured soon after Ryan Fitzpatrick took over the starting position and showed out. From Week 2 to Week 6, for five games, the rookie had to suffer through Josh Rosen and Fitzpatrick splitting time. He couldn’t even get into a rhythm with his quarterback until Week 7 when Fitzpatrick took over for good.
For that three-game stretch where the Dolphins offense started to click, Williams had 196 yards and two touchdowns over 15 receptions. This came against the Steelers, Jets, and Bills. Whilst the Jets had one of the worst defenses in the league, Pittsburgh and Buffalo were dominant last season.
Allen Hurns, who had 15 targets in the first half of the season, was targeted 32 times after Williams got hurt. Even Albert Wilson had 46 targets in the second half of the season. If Williams had not suffered an ACL tear on a punt return (which he should not have been on, because who puts a 6-4 guy out on a punt return?) there’s a chance he could have more than doubled his targets for the season. Especially considering the Dolphins faced several poor teams as they neared the end of the league year.
2019 – Week 9 To Week 17 Projections
What could have been:
- Fitzpatrick averaged 35 attempts a game in the three weeks before Williams’ injury, who averaged 8 targets a game in the same time period. Good for a 22-percent target share.
- In the second half of the season, Fitzpatrick averaged nearly 41 attempts per game, which at the same rate would have given Williams an extra target per game
- Williams had a 33-percent share of the touchdowns while healthy with Fitzpatrick, which would have lead to at least four more, considering his dominance in the red-zone
- The rookie would have averaged close to his season average of 13 yards-per-reception and in that three-game stretch, he caught 62.5-percent of the his targets from Fitzmagic
- Eight Games: 45 receptions / 585 yards / 4 TDs (Season: 77 rec/1,013 yards/7 TDs)
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 220 points (WR20 in PPR / WR22 in STD)
That finish is lower than Parker’s but the fifth-year veteran had the benefit of playing as the defacto number one target. As a rookie, this season would have been insane. The only rookies since 2010 to have a better season would be Odell Beckham Jr. and Michael Thomas.
Chan Gailey Has A History
Williams’ pro comparison on PlayerProfiler is Eric Decker. They had similar athletic testing scores and are around the same height. Another thing they have in common now is that Chan Gailey is their offensive coordinator. Under Gailey, Decker was the WR14 in 2015, going for 1,000-plus yards and catch 12 touchdowns.
However, it’s the other receiver in that 2015 Jets offense that Williams has been studying, Brandon Marshall. Marshall was the WR3 overall, being targeted over 170-times and absolutely dominating the league.
Gailey’s offenses throw the ball a lot, but instead of spreading it around, he focuses in on his best players. Back in 2008, his offense targeted Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez 300-plus times. In 2001, his top three receivers were targeted 273 times.
There’s space in this offense for two receivers to get 150-plus targets on the year. The Dolphins are playing a lot of good teams next season, meaning a lot of negative game script. Flores’ team will be playing catch-up against high-powered offenses, which could result in his quarterbacks averaging over 40 attempts a game.
2020 – A WR1 Season
With either Tua or Fitzpatrick starting under center for games next year, there should be no concerns about poor quarterback play.
- 9.5 targets a game for 152 on the season
- An improved catch rate to at least 63-percent considering his ability to win contested catches and his drops were focus related
- 144 targets at a 63-percent catch rate = 96 receptions
- An average of 13 yards-per-reception is repeatable due to the nature of his routes and ability to gain separation
- 96 receptions at 13 yards per catch = 1,248 yards
- As the bigger of the two, Williams is in line for plenty of red-zone targets next season. With his size and ability to win contested-catches, ten touchdowns (less than what both Decker and Marshall had in 2015) is completely attainable
- Overall: 96/1,248/10 for 280.8 fantasy points (An elite WR1 finish in 2019)
Devante Parker could have a similar finish if he continues to produce like he did when Williams was injured. Ten other sophomores have had similar or better seasons. Juju, OBJ, Thomas, Larry Fitzgerald, and AJ Green are some of those players, and Williams deserves to be included there.
He’s an elite talent. The only reason he went undrafted was due to an off-the-field incident. He has been dominating in training camp, seemingly only getting better. As a rookie, he was potentially the best receiver on his team. People talk about AJ Brown and DK Metcalf exploding next season, I’m looking at Preston Williams instead.
A lot of people are thinking Preston Williams might break out into a fantasy WR2 in 2020. There’s a strong chance that Williams finishes as the overall WR2 next year. He’s also one of my top five dynasty receivers.
