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As usual, I’ll be putting my reputation on the line every week as I choose an entire fantasy team of lower-ranked players to score over a certain threshold of points, players that I trust. I’ll then choose another fantasy team of highly ranked players to score under a certain threshold of points, players that will bust. You’ll find a tally of my hits and misses throughout the season on each weekly article to make sure I’m holding myself accountable, and so all of you can call me bad names on Twitter.
So how are your fantasy teams looking coming into the home stretch? Did you galaxy brain everyone and have Taylor Heinicke, D’Onta Foreman, D.J. Moore, and Tyler Conklin in your lineups? We were finally thrown a bone as we got some high scores this week. I had some nice picks this week including fading David Montgomery and trusting Khalil Herbert. On the flip side, maybe I should fade Kyle Pitts every week because he finally went off. It’s going to be the hardest week on the year with six byes. Let’s wade through the ugly in week 9.
Week 8 Results
- If Russell Wilson wasn’t sniped by his running backs this would’ve been a good call, but he still does not look great. He had just a 36.7 QBR and doesn’t have the rushing he would need to have a nice floor. He is now tied for 27th among QBs in PFF passing grade, right alongside Daniel Jones. Matthew Stafford has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and ranks higher than him. It doesn’t seem to be getting better on offense for Denver and they just traded away perhaps their best player in Bradley Chubb. Broncos country is, in fact, not riding.
- Khalil Herbert’s dominance this year has led the Bears to make this more of a 1A-1B situation with him and David Montgomery. He had a 47 percent opportunity share and, as usual, was much more dynamic with the ball in his hands. Montgomery does have a slight edge in pass blocking but that doesn’t seem to be enough to hold off a running back coup. Herbert has a huge edge in yards after contact per attempt (4.1 to 3.15), breakaway percentage (37.8% to 7.8%), and PFF rushing grade (74.6 to 60.7). Get every share of Herbert you can for the stretch run as they have the easiest remaining schedule for running backs in the league.
- Gus Edwards was trending towards having a good game before leaving the game with a hamstring injury. At the time of this writing there are reports saying that it’s mild and he could be back for the next game. If that’s true he should be rostered in all leagues, or you could throw out a few offers if he’s rostered by another manager. He’s much more valuable in standard leagues because of his limited involvement in the passing game but he has a great chance of a touchdown every game. He’s looked much better than J.K. Dobbins did with a PFF rushing grade of 82.7 and 4.9 yards per attempt. Edwards could be a difference maker in the fantasy playoffs.
- Courtland Sutton fantasy managers are sad. I am a Sutton owner so I, too, am sad. There were a couple of moments where Sutton could’ve had a 33-yard touchdown on a crosser in the fourth quarter but he decided to let everyone down and drop it. This passing game isn’t getting any better and Jerry Jeudy is looking more and more like the number one receiver in this offense. Sutton should have some decent games but his upside is capped and he obviously has no real floor.
- Wan’Dale Robinson’s snap share went up like I expected but he somehow only saw three targets in this one. The Seahawks’ defense has looked much better the last few weeks but he was out-targeted by Tanner Hudson and Marcus Johnson. This passing game looks unusable. There aren’t enough touchdowns to go around after Saquon Barkley. The only players you should be possibly starting are Barkley and Daniel Jones as a streamer. Robinson is a decent stash but there are better waiver wire targets out there.
- Irv Smith is another one that was hurt during the game, and he’ll now be out for most of the season. Enter T.J. Hockenson. The Vikings traded a decent haul for him so he should be an integral part of the offense sooner rather than later. I don’t think his fantasy upside has changed, though, as he remains a low-end TE1.
- Lamar Jackson was able to put the Buccaneers in a 3-5 hole with a nice game. This Buccaneers team is hard to understand, but it’s very apparent that the offense and defense are not to be feared. Jackson has a perfect schedule in the fantasy playoffs as he gets Pittsburgh twice, Cleveland, and Atlanta. There may be a few more semi-disappointing games for Jackson before Rashod Bateman gets back but he could get on another fantasy roll in week 14.
- It’s looking more and more like David Montgomery is an RB3 and Khalil Herbert has taken ahold of this backfield. Montgomery will still get a decent opportunity share so if he somehow falls into the endzone in the next week or two I would be looking to sell high quickly. This coaching staff didn’t draft Montgomery so they have no loyalty to him. If Herbert gives them a better chance to win (hint: he does), then they’ll opt to start him.
- The Eagles’ game was in garbage time pretty quickly so Miles Sanders only received nine opportunities. I wouldn’t panic as a fantasy manager as it was just a product of game script, but it is a little concerning that in this environment he received no targets and wasn’t a focal point of the offense. He looked great on the touches he did receive as he almost made me eat my bust pick. 78 yards and a touchdown against a good run defense. You’re just hoping the games are more competitive than this. That could be dicey against some easy NFC opposition.
- Johnson is still receiving the most targets on this offense and Chase Claypool was just traded to the Bears. That is pretty much the only positives you can take from this. Kenny Pickett has now thrown two touchdowns and eight interceptions. He also scrambled seven times in this one to take away more targets from the receivers. The schedule does lighten up somewhat after their week 9 bye but it’s tough to feel like Pickett and this offense can take advantage of that.
- Pittman now reminds me of the Diontae Johnson of the Colts with less volume. He’ll be the target leader on this team but they won’t lead to very much production. Ehlinger wasn’t terrible throwing the ball but with only 23 attempts and six scrambles he’s not leaving much meat on the bone for the receivers. I would look to trade Pittman as it could get worse from here.
- I’ve never been so happy to be so wrong as Kyle Pitts made me eat my words. Nobody saw this game script coming as this one was a barn burner. Sadly, I don’t expect this usage to continue. The 28 pass attempts Mariota had is basically a ceiling and nine targets is the ceiling for Kyle Pitts. These should both come back to what they have been without overtime and Cordarrelle Patterson coming back. I would sell high in redraft and look for a tight end more consistent and with more volume.
Week 4 Record: 5-7
Season Record: 47-48
Fantasy Trust Circle: Week 9
I must choose a quarterback outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 9 rankings to score over 17 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Trevor Lawrence (Week 9 Forecast: 280 Passing Yards, 20 Rushing Yards, 2 Touchdowns)
Lawrence hasn’t impressed in real life football but he’s been able to run for five scores the last three weeks. He should be able to run AND pass on this Las Vegas unit that ranks in the bottom-10 in PFF defense grade. They’ve allowed the most points in the NFL to quarterbacks to this point. This game has the potential to be a shootout with the over/under at 48 points so the Jaguars will have to keep their foot on the gas.
I must choose two running backs outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 9 rankings to score over 12 fantasy points in a PPR format.
RB: A.J. Dillon (Week 9 Forecast: 70 Rushing Yards, 1 Receptions, 10 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
It’s been rough sledding for Dillon fantasy owners but the cure for that is this Lions’ defense. The Packers should be able to score against the worst defense in the NFL and they’ll probably rely on the running game when they lead after halftime. Dillon was better last week against a stout Bills front with 54 yards rushing and a reception. This week is crazy for byes so he’s an easy flex play.
RB: Caleb Huntley (Week 9 Forecast: 90 Rushing Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Caleb Huntley has quietly impressed in Atlanta with a PFF rushing grade of 81.3, ranking 15th among running backs. It’s not clear yet whether Cordarelle Patterson will play or not but it doesn’t sound like he’s 100 percent healthy either way. I would still be fine playing Huntley as a flex against a bad run defense in the Chargers. Arthur Smith writhes in excitement at the thought of running the ball every single play so he shouldn’t be too game script dependent.
I must choose two wide receivers outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 9 rankings to score over 12 fantasy points in a PPR format.
WR: Joshua Palmer (Week 9 Forecast: 8 Receptions, 80 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
There’s now a chance that Keenan Allen misses this week 9 matchup along with Mike Williams. That would make Palmer the de facto number one receiver for Justin Herbert against an Atlanta defense that was just torched by P.J. Walker. Palmer didn’t exactly light the world on fire while Allen was out but he was very usable and should be thought of as a WR2 at the worst with both out. Justin Herbert should be feeling 100 percent after the bye week so Palmer has a chance at huge numbers.
WR: Zay Jones (Week 9 Forecast: 6 Receptions, 65 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Zay Jones never overly impresses but he’s been pretty good at earning targets. Like I said for Trevor Lawrence, this game has an over/under of 48 points so there’s going to be plenty of targets to go around. Even if he doesn’t score he could see enough usage in this one to have a decent week. They definitely trust him in Jacksonville as he ran a route on 97 percent of dropbacks in week 8.
I must choose one tight end outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 9 rankings to score over 10 fantasy points in a PPR format.
TE: Dawson Knox (Week 9 Forecast: 4 Receptions, 35 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
I’m not overly hyped about having to pick Dawson Knox in this one but it’s what happens when there’s six teams on bye. He at least ran a route on 77 percent of dropbacks in week 8. The way to attack the Jets is through the tight end as PFF gives him a 21 percent advantage. They have some great young cornerbacks so Knox could receive a higher target share than normal. Other than that you’re just hoping this is one of the few touchdown games for Knox. Cross your fingers.
Fantasy Busts: Week 9
I must choose a quarterback inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 9 rankings to score under 18 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Kirk Cousins (Week 9 Forecast: 240 Passing Yards, 10 Rushing Yards, 1 Touchdown, 2 Interceptions)
Kirk Cousins has been consistent but has only had one three touchdown game this year. This week the Vikings head to Washington D.C. in an outdoor stadium with a good chance of rain. It’s well known that Kirk Cousins plays better in domes so that could play a factor. The Commanders defense has been playing well lately as they rank 12th in PFF defense grade.
I must choose two running backs inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 9 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
RB: David Montgomery (Week 9 Forecast: 50 Rushing Yards, 1 Receptions, 10 Receiving Yards)
Montgomery is on the bust list once again as he’s going up against a great run defense in the Dolphins and he has been one of the least explosive backs in the league. His usage is getting eaten into more and more every week by Khalil Herbert so he’s just a floor play at this point. The situation isn’t trending in the right direction for Montgomery.
RB: Leonard Fournette (Week 9 Forecast: 40 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 15 Receiving Yards)
Fournette hasn’t topped 65 rushing yards since week 1. He’s been living on dump offs and touchdowns since then. The Rams should give the Buccaneers’ offensive line fits in the run game so he’ll have to feast on those dump offs once again. Brady should be passing the ball plenty Sunday because Tampa Bay needs wins badly. He wants to put them on his shoulders. I’d look for a big game for Godwin, Evans, or both. I’ll bet on Fournette not seeing another lucky touchdown.
I must choose two wide receivers inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 9 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
WR: D.J. Moore (Week 9 Forecast: 4 Receptions, 40 Receiving Yards)
The P.J. Walker story has been a very neat sidenote the last couple of weeks. Has he really unlocked D.J. Moore finally? The Bengals were trounced by the Browns on Monday night but the Panthers don’t have Nick Chubb. Cincinnati has a much better secondary than the Falcons and can get pressure on the quarterback as well. The D.J. Moore comeback will take a one-week vacation.
WR: Michael Pittman Jr. (Week 9 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 40 Receiving Yards)
I’m going back to the well with Michael Pittman bust szn. If Jonathan Taylor is out he’s their only real threat on offense so it should be easy for Belichick to scheme him out. It’ll be another game of low volume and Pittman won’t always see a 39 percent target share. Ehlinger wasn’t a highly-touted prospect coming out of Texas so I doubt he’ll be able to have many useful fantasy weeks in his second start ever.
I must choose one tight end inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 9 rankings to score under 10 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
TE: Tyler Higbee (Week 9 Forecast: 3 Receptions, 25 Receiving Yards)
This Rams offense is broken. They needed some kind of weapon at the trade deadline and all they got was a wonky ankle for Cooper Kupp. The Buccaneers are a tough matchup for tight ends and the passing game overall. They rank 2nd with an 82.4 coverage grade according to PFF. Matthew Stafford looks lost. He ranks 38th in the NFL with a 6.4 average depth of target because they’re pass blocking has been so awful. This has led Higbee to pass block much more than normal as he ran a route on only 42 percent of dropbacks last week.
RANKINGS | WEEKLY | DYNASTY |
