Play vs Us On Underdog! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER for a 100% deposit match up to $100
As usual, I’ll be putting my reputation on the line every week as I choose an entire fantasy team of lower-ranked players to score over a certain threshold of points, players that I trust. I’ll then choose another fantasy team of highly ranked players to score under a certain threshold of points, players that will bust. You’ll find a tally of my hits and misses throughout the season on each weekly article to make sure I’m holding myself accountable, and so all of you can call me bad names on Twitter.
It’s been a crazy ride thus far with scoring down and injuries seemingly way up (maybe that’s just my fantasy teams). Traditionally strong teams have been riding the struggle bus and teams that haven’t won anything significant in many moons are lighting it up. It was a really bad week for the trusts as the only one with a semi-win was Jimmy G with a QB9 finish. Let’s make sense of this tomfoolery to get some W’s in week 8.
Week 7 Results
- I’m considering this call a semi-win as Jimmy Garoppolo was the QB9 on the week. With scoring down across the league that only amounted to 17.3 fantasy points but fantasy managers will take that for a streamer every week. This is the exact game script you want for the 49ers skill players as they were down for most of the second half. They ended up with 51 dropbacks so Garoppolo, Kittle, and Aiyuk had decent fantasy outings. Especially with the addition of Christian McCaffrey, it’s going to be hard to know who to play from the skill players on this team every week. McCaffrey will be an every week player but he’ll take touches away from the receiving trio of Kittle, Aiyuk, and Samuel. Garoppolo’s job will be much easier with McCaffrey so his stock is up rest of season.
- At the time of submission last week I didn’t know if Gus Edwards would make his debut or not. Obviously he did and Drake was held to a 35 percent opportunity share. Edwards should be the running back to own for the next month plus, but he faces a tough schedule the next few weeks with the Buccaneers and Saints. He’s also a zero in the passing game so he’ll mostly be a touchdown-or-bust back the next few weeks.
- I keep waiting for Hunt to have his normal touches but his usage continues to disappoint. He had six touches for five yards but had two of the four goal-line carries and one touchdown. It may get better with target hog Njoku out for multiple weeks or he may be traded to a running back-needy team like the Broncos. Otherwise he’s not really useable but remains one of the highest-upside handcuffs in the NFL.
- The Packers keep trying to one-up themselves in ugliness as they lost to the lowly Commanders. Doubs did not look good while throwing up a goose egg on four targets. He still saw elite usage with 91 percent routes run per dropback but he hasn’t done much with it this year. He’s now at 1.05 yards per route run which is tied with Ben Skowronek for 76th among wide receivers. Rodgers’ patience is likely wearing thin with the rookie.
- Rondale Moore had an elite 94 percent routes run per dropback but turned that into only two targets. This was likely because Moore had to run a majority of his routes on the outside where he’s not as proficient. With his small frame and explosiveness he’s made for the slot, and he should be there full-time once Robbie Anderson gets going on the perimeter. I would go right back to Moore the next couple of weeks as he’s going up against some of the worst slot corners in the league with the Vikings and Seahawks.
- Noah Fant only had 17 routes run and turned that into three targets. The Seahawks were able to get up early on the Chargers and run it down they’re throats with Kenneth Walker. Geno Smith only threw for 210 yards on 27 attempts so these pass catchers are somewhat game script-dependent. Fant can’t be counted on even as a bye-game fill in.
- Somehow Trevor Lawrence has a lower PFF passing grade than he did last year when he threw for 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He’s been able to satisfy fantasy managers with some rushing touchdowns the past couple of weeks but the real-life play has been bust-like. At this point I’m leaning towards Lawrence never reaching the potential many saw out of him and always being a fringy fantasy play. He’s looked inaccurate and doesn’t have the wheels of a Justin Fields to bail him out of tough situations.
- Christian McCaffrey was dealt to the 49ers after submitting the week 6 article so the Jeff Wilson bust looks like more of an obvious call than it was at the time. Wilson is just a mid-range handcuff now that McCaffrey will take over the backfield. Elijah Mitchell should come off IR soon so he could be even further down the depth chart then. Garroppolo has never checked down to running backs often but, when you have a generational talent like Christian McCaffrey, you do things differently. I fully expect him to be targeted heavily going forward.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire even had a touchdown in this game and still didn’t have enough usage to be a good fantasy play. He’s slowly being phased out of the offense for the flavor-of-the-week Isiah Pacheco so this could be the last sell-high window of the year. He now ranks 40th in PFF rushing grade for all running backs. He’s not playable with the amount of touches he’s now limited to.
- Christian Kirk ran a route on every dropback for the Jaguars and had a 23 percent target share. Lawrence was very inaccurate all day, but Jacksonville still chucked it 43 times. That volume was enough to drive Kirk to a useable fantasy game. It’s going to be maddening to own Kirk because you don’t know what matchups to use him in and this Jacksonville passing game is so inconsistent.
- The Broncos didn’t lose a beat without Russell ‘Dangerwich’ Wilson as they sucked for most of the game on offense once again. Brett Rypien only produced 225 yards with his 46 throws. Courtland Sutton only caught three of his nine targets for 23 yards. To give them a little credit, the Jets’ defense is very solid and have a top cornerback duo and pass rush. Courtland Sutton will be useable against easier defenses. It’ll be tough to score touchdowns, though, when your team is the lowest scoring in the NFL.
- Hockenson wasn’t terrible against the Cowboys, but this offense has regressed after scoring the most points through week 4. Amon-Ra St. Brown left the game early, Josh Reynolds was limited with a knee injury, and D.J. Chark is on IR and Hockenson still couldn’t see more than five targets. This is what Hockenson has been his entire career: a low-end TE1 that consistently puts up 10 points and has a few touchdowns sprinkled in.
Week 4 Record: 4-8
Season Record: 42-41
Fantasy Trust Circle: Week 8
I must choose a quarterback outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 8 rankings to score over 18 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Andy Dalton (Week 8 Forecast: 290 Passing Yards, 10 Rushing Yards, 2 Touchdowns)
Dalton did his best Jameis Winston impression last week with some great touchdown passes and some awful pick 6’s. That led to a QB2 finish on the week when they were trailing for most of the game and had to pass non-stop. He even gave you two points on the ground! He’s playing well as evidenced by his highest PFF passing grade ever and he’s going up against a turnstile defense in the Raiders. I expect Las Vegas to be able to score some points so this should be another 35+ attempt game. Just hope Taysom Hill doesn’t vulture three of his touchdowns.
I must choose two running backs outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 8 rankings to score over 13 fantasy points in a PPR format.
RB: Khalil Herbert (Week 8 Forecast: 70 Rushing Yards, 1 Receptions, 10 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Khalil Herbert just keeps siphoning touches away from David Montgomery and looks good doing it. He’s now third in yards after contact per attempt and leads the league with 6.2 yards per rush. The guy has juice that David Montgomery doesn’t and the coaching staff is finally giving him the playing time he deserves. The Cowboys’ achilles heel on defense is the running game so I expect Herbert to have 12+ touches and be effective.
RB: Gus Edwards (Week 8 Forecast: 70 Rushing Yards, 1 Receptions, 5 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
The Gus bus was rolling last week for 66 yards and two touchdowns. I don’t expect anybody in this backfield to be a must-start this year but this isn’t your dad’s Buccaneers that were a matchup nightmare. They were just rolled over by the likes of D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Edwards is the clear cut goal-line back so there’s a good chance he falls forward for a touchdown or two.
I must choose two wide receivers outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 8 rankings to score over 13 fantasy points in a PPR format.
WR: Courtland Sutton (Week 8 Forecast: 7 Receptions, 80 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
I know it’s been ugly for this Broncos’ offense and the Russell Wilson weirdness is reaching an all-time high, (High knees for four hours down the aisle of the plane while your teammates are sleeping? Really?) but this Jaguars team is almost as dysfunctional. The Jacksonville defense holds their own against the run but are bottom-10 in pass defense. The Broncos will be throwing the ball often in this one and Courtland Sutton is the apple of Wilson’s eye. The Broncos need wins badly so expect them to be aggressive.
WR: Wan’Dale Robinson (Week 8 Forecast: 7 Receptions, 70 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
I wasn’t sure how Robinson was going to look against NFL defenses as he’s basically my size…..and I’m a small man. His short-area burst has been impressive, though, and he’s basically all this team has in the passing game besides Saquon Barkley. Daniel Jones hasn’t been awful throwing the ball this season and they’re going to need to keep up with the Seahawks. Robinson’s usage has been quickly heading in the right direction as he ran a route on 78 percent of Jones’ dropbacks in week 7. This could be the blow up game.
I must choose one tight end outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 8 rankings to score over 10 fantasy points in a PPR format.
TE: Irv Smith Jr. (Week 8 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 60 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
This pick isn’t so much about Smith’s usage or talent but about Arizona’s horrid defense against tight ends. They’ve so far allowed 51 receptions for 539 yards and six touchdowns. That would be the TE2 on the season, about six points behind Travis Kelce. Irv Smith has seen his routes slowly creep up throughout the season and should be a big part of the Vikings’ game plan.
Fantasy Busts: Week 8
I must choose a quarterback inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 8 rankings to score under 18 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Lamar Jackson (Week 8 Forecast: 220 Passing Yards, 30 Rushing Yards, 1 Touchdown, 2 Interceptions)
Lamar Jackson started 2022 out with flair as he was outpacing his 2019 MVP season in fantasy points. He’s slowed down significantly since then with finishes the last three weeks of QB15, QB11, and QB22. He had just nine completions last week and none to a banged up Mark Andrews. This receiving core just isn’t seeing much separation with Rashod Bateman out and it’s not certain that he’ll play this week. Tampa Bay has some key starters out in their secondary but are much better than a Cleveland D that held Jackson in check. This could be a get right-game for Brady and company and it would be at Lamar’s expense.
I must choose two running backs inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 8 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
RB: David Montgomery (Week 8 Forecast: 50 Rushing Yards, 1 Receptions, 10 Receiving Yards)
I have Khalil Herbert in my trust circle this week so it’s only fitting that Montgomery is a bust. He saw the lowest usage in week 7 since his rookie year with just a 56 percent snap share. The snap share, talent, and easy running back schedule the rest of the way suggest Herbert could take over at any time. I want to sell Montgomery before that happens.
RB: Miles Sanders (Week 8 Forecast: 55 Rushing Yards, 1 Receptions, 5 Receiving Yards)
When everyone is healthy in this Eagles’ backfield it can be a headache. They enjoy running back committees more than anyone with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott taking an annoying amount of carries away from Sanders. He was lucky to get a goal-line carry in their last game as it’s usually Boston Scott getting a majority of them. Jalen Hurts doesn’t check down to his running backs often so Sanders is basically a touchdown-dependent back. He isn’t used enough in the passing game to be much more of a boom-bust option, and against the Steelers’ stout run defense I expect this to be a bust game.
I must choose two wide receivers inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 8 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
WR: Diontae Johnson (Week 7 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 40 Receiving Yards)
Diontae Johnson is fourth in the league with 67 targets. He has turned that into a WR41 standing in PPR points per game. We thought it was just a Ben Roethlisberger thing that Johnson had such a low average depth of target and wasn’t efficient with his touches. Then it happened with Mitch Trubisky. Then it happened with Kenny Pickett. The offense has been horrible so he has no upside to speak of. He may get Darius ‘Big Play’ Slay in this one and that wouldn’t be pretty.
WR: Michael Pittman Jr. (Week 8 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 40 Receiving Yards)
I’m even more scared of this offense now that Sam Ehlinger is running the show instead of Matt Ryan. At least Ryan was chucking the ball 40+ times a game. They could end up with a game plan similar to the Chicago Bears with Ehlinger: pass it around 20 times per game, run the ball a ton, and the quarterback can scramble when he feels like it. I would trade Pittman before the unknown becomes known and he’s stuck in a terrible, low-volume offense.
I must choose one tight end inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 8 rankings to score under 10 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
TE: Kyle Pitts (Week 8 Forecast: 3 Receptions, 25 Receiving Yards)
Albert Einstein once said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. He was speaking to Kyle Pitts’ owners. Don’t even think about starting him. Even if there’s a fire. Carolina is actually pretty good against tight ends but it really doesn’t matter. The volume isn’t there and it won’t be there this year. Just let it go.
RANKINGS | WEEKLY | DYNASTY |
