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As usual, I’ll be putting my reputation on the line every week as I choose an entire fantasy team of lower-ranked players to score over a certain threshold of points, players that I trust. I’ll then choose another fantasy team of highly ranked players to score under a certain threshold of points, players that will bust. You’ll find a tally of my hits and misses throughout the season on each weekly article to make sure I’m holding myself accountable, and so all of you can call me bad names on Twitter.
Scoring continues to be down through week 6 as it’s more important than ever to have one of the top quarterbacks. Russell Wilson has gone from “Let’s Ride” to getting bucked off the bronco and Aaron Rodgers apparently needs a simpler offense, whatever that means. Week 7 has four teams on bye so I’ll be keeping the points relatively low for the trust circle.
Week 6 Results
- It doesn’t look pretty if you actually watch the game but Justin Fields has gotten it done the last two weeks. He’s had 47 and 88 yards rushing, and if he keeps up the volume he has a relatively high floor. He continues to hold the ball too long and has the worst weapons in the league, so he’s just a desperation flex in one quarterback leagues. It would be tough to trust him against a Patriots defense that seems to be hitting it’s stride after shutting down Jacoby Brissett and Jared Goff the past two weeks.
- I consider this a semi-win as Brian Robinson was able to get you 12 fantasy points after finding pay-dirt on a goal-line carry. He saw 17 carries and a 55 percent opportunity share but ran only six routes. The offense could be even worse the next four weeks with Taylor Heinicke under center so this could be the ideal sell-high moment. He’s not running enough routes to be a starter in PPR leagues and there won’t be many goal-line carries to go around.
- This Denver backfield seems like one to stay away from the rest of the year as Melvin Gordon was benched without any given reason and Mike Boone only had two touches. This team has bad vibes all around it as Russell Wilson didn’t even say “Let’s Ride” in his press conference after the game. It’s impossible to know who to trust going forward so the answer is probably just ‘no.’
- Let’s hope DeAndre Hopkins is the missing ingredient from this offense because they scored an absurd ZERO touchdowns against the gross Seattle defense. Rondale Moore had some lovely usage with 98 percent of routes run per dropback and a 28 percent target share, but that only led to six catches for 49 scoreless yards. It’s tough to make much out of a 3.3 average depth of target. His 4.5 ADOT has been a little better than the 1.3 he put up last year but he’s still 92nd among wide receivers. He’s basically Arizona’s version of Curtis Samuel. He should be flex-worthy most weeks, especially with the Marquise Brown out for six or more weeks.
- Isaiah McKenzie only ran a route on 58 percent of Buffalo’s dropbacks as he slid back into his role from the first few weeks. He didn’t do much with the five targets he saw and received a 49 PFF receiving grade for the game. Jamison Crowder will be out for a long time but it looks like Khalil Shakir could compete with McKenzie for playing time in the slot. Shakir looked like the better player the last two weeks.
- Noah Fant is still splitting time with Will Dissly as he ran a route on only 58 percent of dropbacks. He’s a decent tight-end streamer because he commands targets at a decent clip but he’ll have plenty of one catch games as well. He could be a streamer for one more week against the Chargers as they’ve allowed the 6th most yards to tight ends and Seattle will likely have to pass to keep up.
- Justin Herbert as an ADOT of 6.8 this year which ranks just 32nd in the NFL. The loss of Rashawn Slater has been huge as he has to get the ball out of his hands as fast as possible before he gets slaughtered. Keenan Allen getting healthy should help things as he can get open quickly and facing the Seattle defense always helps things. I’m buying low on Herbert after this week if possible.
- Mixon had his least number of touches all year in this one but was able to find the endzone on a catch in the redzone. He’s had his best two games rushing the last two weeks as it looks like the offense is starting to find its stride. It was a good sign that Mixon ran a route on 57 percent of dropbacks as Samaje Perine had been eating away at those snaps. If the Mixon owner is scared of his carry total in this one I would be buying. The schedule lightens up the next few weeks.
- Najee Harris was able to find the endzone and I still came away with the win because he’s running into a brick wall. He’s also averaging just three targets a game, way down from his nearly six target average last season. The sell-high window has officially closed. He looks to be a low-end RB2 on bye weeks that you’re not at all excited to put in your lineup. The only positive is the schedule lightens up after the week 9 bye, and Kenny Pickett could get better as the season goes on.
- In a losing game script Cooper Rush showed his true colors as he had a 32.2 QBR and threw three bad interceptions. Ceedee still saw a 27 percent target share and could’ve had a long touchdown but Rush was hit as he threw. Dak Prescott should be back in week 7 and Ceedee has some great matchups up ahead with Detroit and Chicago. Trust him as a WR1 going forward.
- Mike Williams was shut down by Patrick Surtain, one of the best corners in the NFL. Herbert basically ignored Williams after the 1st quarter. Williams will always be a boom-bust receiver because he lives on contested catches. If he has these elite corners shadowing him he’s much more likely to bust as he doesn’t have the route running chops that Keenan Allen has. He could easily have a boom game next week with Allen possibly back and getting the turnstile Seahawks’ defense.
- Jalen Hurts didn’t have to do too much in this game as he only threw for 155 yards. They led for almost all of this one so the Eagles turned to the ground game. Dallas is a tough matchup for Dallas Goedert in the first place so all of these factors caused him to bust. He’s one of the most athletic tight ends in the NFL with an incredible 11.3 yards after catch per reception. There’s going to be some games where one or two of the Eagle’s big three don’t have a big game because the Eagles are so good on the ground.
Week 4 Record: 7-5
Season Record: 38-33
Fantasy Trust Circle: Week 7
I must choose a quarterback outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 7 rankings to score over 18 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo (Week 7 Forecast: 280 Passing Yards, 2 Touchdowns)
Despite all the slander he gets, Garoppolo is an above-average quarterback that can get the ball in his playmakers’ hands. He has a yards per attempt of 7.8 which is higher than Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow. He also has a turnover-worthy play percentage of just 2.9 percent, lower than Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins. The reason he gets ranked so low in fantasy football is a lack of dropbacks. This past week the 49ers were in a trailing game script and he had to dropback 42 times. They’ll probably be in a trailing game script against the Chiefs and their average defense this week so he may have to pass it even more. They’re a poor tackling team so it should be YAC city Sunday.
I must choose two running backs outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 7 rankings to score over 13 fantasy points in a PPR format.
RB: Kenyan Drake (Week 7 Forecast: 80 Rushing Yards, 1 Receptions, 10 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Drake looked better than he has in years this past week with 119 yards rushing on only 10 carries and even had some passing game usage. I expect J.K. Dobbins to be held out of this one as the Ravens don’t want to risk it with their future RB1 but keep an eye on Justice Hill and Gus Edwards’ availability. If Drake is the main back against the paltry Cleveland D he could hulk-smash this week.
RB: Kareem Hunt (Week 7 Forecast: 40 Rushing Yards, 4 Receptions, 40 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
It was the ugliest game of the season for the Browns last week as Nick Chubb and Hunt were kept in check by a New England defense that seems to be figuring it out. I expect this to be more of a Hunt game because Lamar Jackson should do Lamar Jackson things against the Cleveland defense and they’ll have to throw early and often. The Ravens’ D can be beat through the air and on the ground and Hunt still has the snaps inside the 10-yard line. I expect Cleveland to put forth a much better effort in this one and Hunt to find paydirt.
I must choose two wide receivers outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 7 rankings to score over 13 fantasy points in a PPR format.
WR: Romeo Doubs (Week 7 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 90 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
This Packers’ offense just seems stuck in the mud for much of their games. To be fair, they have faced some formidable defenses in the Patriots, Giants, and Jets. This week they get a Washington D that’s a little more forgiving and I expect Aaron Rodgers and this receiving corps to figure it out sooner than later. Allen Lazard and Doubs have distanced themselves from the rest of the crew as the co-leading receivers and Doubs seems to have the higher ceiling of the two. They’ll be without Randall Cobb for a while so Doubs could see a higher target share in the coming weeks. This is typically the time when rookie wide receivers start to figure the NFL game out.
WR: Rondale Moore (Week 7 Forecast: 7 Receptions, 70 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
We thought after week 6 that Rondale Moore would be put on the backburner as DeAndre Hopkins is coming back from suspension, but the Marquise Brown injury opens up a ton of targets in this offense. Moore should be the every down slot receiver and could even see some outside work in two receiver sets. He’s finally showing some of the juice he displayed in college and it’s coming at the right time for this offense. Kyler Murray and the offense have been icky for most of the year but Hopkins (and a new playcaller) could unlock something better.
I must choose one tight end outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 7 rankings to score over 10 fantasy points in a PPR format.
TE: Noah Fant (Week 7 Forecast: 6 Receptions, 50 Receiving Yards)
There’s no sexy pick at this position but Fant has been commanding a target share the last two weeks of 23 percent and 21 percent. The Chargers have given up the 6th most yards to tight ends this year in what is the highest over/under of the week at 51 points. Geno should be slinging it in this one so Fant wouldn’t even have to fall in the endzone to have a decent fantasy outing.
Fantasy Busts: Week 7
I must choose a quarterback inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 7 rankings to score under 18 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Trevor Lawrence (Week 7 Forecast: 240 Passing Yards, 10 Rushing Yards, 1 Touchdown, 2 Interceptions)
After weeks two and three everybody was running to say that the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck was finally breaking out. It’s been a bumpy ride since then, although he put up a nice game in week 6 against the Colts. He’s still making some mistakes he shouldn’t be and he’s now ranked 30th in PFF passing grade on the season. The Giants just held Lamar Jackson in check so this could end up being a low-scoring one.
I must choose two running backs inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 7 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
RB: Jeff Wilson (Week 7 Forecast: 40 Rushing Yards, 1 Receptions, 10 Receiving Yards)
As I stated under Jimmy Garoppolo, I think this game script takes Jeff Wilson off the field for much of the game as they prefer Kyle Juszczyk in passing down situations. Tyrion Davis-Price also came back and played limited snaps but could get more playing time as he gets healthier. Wilson did a no-no and fumbled the ball last week as well, and Kyle Shanahan has put guys in the dog house for less.
RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Week 7 Forecast: 45 Rushing Yards, 2 Receptions, 20 Receiving Yards)
The touchdown regression has finally hit for Edwards-Helaire. After receiving five touchdowns in the first four games he’s had exactly zero in his last two. He’s not getting the usage to have a good fantasy day without the touchdowns so they’ve been a very sad bunch. San Francisco should be getting a few defensive starters back so this is a tough matchup. I don’t expect Edwards-Helaire to be able to score on his nine carries and minimal targets.
I must choose two wide receivers inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 7 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
WR: Christian Kirk (Week 7 Forecast: 4 Receptions, 40 Receiving Yards)
Kirk bombing goes hand-in-hand with the Trevor Lawrence take. I think this Giants team is scrappy and it will be a low-scoring game. They’ve given up the least amount of fantasy points to wide receivers in the NFL and I think they find some success in the ground game. Kirk is talented but kind of is what he is at this stage of his career: a borderline WR2 with some boom games.
WR: Courtland Sutton (Week 7 Forecast: 3 Receptions, 35 Receiving Yards)
These Broncos’ games have been downright hard to watch and now Russell Wilson has a hamstring injury. He was already running for his life from defenders but, if he plays, he won’t be able to get out of the pocket as well. Sutton will also see plenty of ‘Sauce’ Gardner who is one of the best young cornerbacks in the game. This pass rush is also stellar and should be able to get home on Russell Wilson, who has a 2.78 seconds time to throw average on dropbacks. That’s a long time.
I must choose one tight end inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 7 rankings to score under 10 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
TE: T.J. Hockenson (Week 7 Forecast: 4 Receptions, 30 Receiving Yards)
The Lions are getting back they’re star players in Amon Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift so Hockenson should see less opportunities going forward. He’s also going up against a top defense in the Cowboys who allow the 8th least points to tight ends. I don’t see the Lions scoring much, especially with Swift likely on a pitch count. Goff was exposed in week 5 against a lesser New England defense so, even with a mostly healthy St. Brown and Swift, I don’t see them being able to move the ball effectively.
RANKINGS | WEEKLY | DYNASTY |
