NFC North Fantasy Football Preview
With training camps kicking off soon, we will be previewing key questions for every team across the league with the goal of helping fantasy football owners formulate winning strategies. This time around, we navigate our way to the NFC North fantasy football picture. Chicago aims to repeat as division champion while Minnesota, Green Bay, and Detroit hope to rebound from disappointing seasons. No shortage of key fantasy story lines exist up north! Enjoy and use the information to your advantage.
Chicago Bears
Mighty Montgomery?
Badly miscast in head coach Matt Nagy’s scheme, Jordan Howard was shipped off to Philadelphia. Initially, Howard’s replacement looked to be free agent signee Mike Davis. But then the Bears selected former Iowa State standout David Montgomery in the third round. In fact, Chicago traded up to be in position to draft Montgomery.
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Montgomery looks to have the talent to play on all three downs. Because of Tarik Cohen and Davis, Chicago will not expect Montgomery to be a bellcow. Still, if Montgomery meets expectations, he boasts the highest ceiling of any Bears back. Despite his poor fit in the offense, Howard rushed for 935 yards and nine touchdowns. If Montgomery matches that production and pitches in numbers as a receiver–look out.
Still Monsters of the Midway?
Understandably, fantasy general managers focus mostly on offense heading into draft day. Eventually, the time comes to take a defense. Depending on your league’s scoring format, selecting a defense slightly earlier than your competitors can pay big dividends. Or, it could result in disaster. After a torrid run in 2017, Jacksonville was highly coveted last year, with many owners reaching for the Jaguars much earlier than needed. Those owners came to view the Jaguars with cynicism and most sent them to the waiver wire. Dominant in 2018, the Bears are viewed in the same light as Jacksonville was a year ago.
And that could be scary. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio left to become Denver’s head coach. Former Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano replaces Fangio. The Bears also lost Bryce Callahan and Adrian Amos in free agency. Chicago had little difficulty defeating Minnesota twice last year, but the Vikings and Packers remain formidable division foes. Out of conference, the Bears must play Kansas City and the Los Angeles Chargers. New Orleans, Dallas, Philadelphia, and the Rams are also on the schedule.
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Matchups with Denver, Washington, and the New York Giants are positives and a severe backslide seems unlikely for any unit led by Khalil Mack. But the changes increase Chicago’s cone of uncertainty. At a position where streaming happens regularly and there are plenty of variables, letting one of your adversaries make the first move on the Bears would be practical.
Detroit Lions
Ground Game Galore
New Detroit offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell believes in a ground-and-pound plan of attack. These days, ground-and-pound falls under a George Costanza “do the opposite” approach. However, when you have a talented running back like Kerryon Johnson, it may not be the worst plan. Injuries cut Johnson’s 2018 season short, but he averaged 5.4 yards per carry and showcased excellent skills as a receiver.
Johnson’s skill set seemingly sets him up for a jump into RB1 territory. An impediment comes in the form of C.J. Anderson, a viable goal line vulture. Anderson signed with the Lions after an impressive stretch with the Los Angeles Rams. Last year, washed-up LeGarrette Blount was Johnson’s main tag-team partner. Primary pass catching back Theo Riddick has shown signs of decline. Johnson embodies an RB2 with RB1 potential. The impact of Anderson will not be enough to keep Johnson from making a big impact. If you opt to go the superstar wide receiver route in rounds one and two, Johnson should be in your plans in rounds three or four.
High Hopes for Hockenson
Tight end was a position of misery in Motown. Levine Toilolo, primarily a blocker, led the Lions tight ends with a ghastly 21 receptions. The Detroit front office took significant steps to improve this trouble spot by drafting Iowa’s T.J. Hockenson eighth overall.
Pretty much equally regarded as a blocker and receiver, Hockenson gives Matthew Stafford another weapon to go with Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. It must be remembered that many tight ends struggle out of the gate. The Lions also signed Jesse James in free agency. James contributes mostly as a blocker, but will steal some receptions.
Nevertheless, the situation sets up very well for Hockenson. He will not be the focus of opposing defenses with Golladay, Jones, and Johnson in the picture. Stafford had a down season last year, but a rebound looks probable. If Hock impresses prior to the start of the regular season, expect his ADP to rise. If anyone has a chance at bucking the trend of struggling rookie tight ends it is Hockenson.
Green Bay Packers
Breakout Season for Aaron Jones?
Aaron Jones again showed promise as a second-year runner in 2018. Jones averaged an impressive 5.5 yards per carry and scored nine touchdowns in 12 games. However, it still felt like something was missing as Jones missed time due to injury and suspension. Plus, former Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy strongly believed in Jamaal Williams.
Often, the news in the offseason celebrates excessive hope. But everything points in a very positive direction for Jones who is reportedly in better shape. New Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur wants his running backs more involved as receivers. In 2017, Jones had just nine receptions. That total increased to 26 last year. With PPR formats becoming increasingly prevalent in fantasy, Jones’ promise as a receiver enhances his already rising stock.
Although Williams will not be going away, Jones potentially profits more than any other player under LaFleur. Green Bay needs a lead back and Jones is the best man for the job. Unless things turn south in the preseason, Jones can be viewed as a third-round pick with strong potential to outplay his draft spot.
Battle for Targets
After Aaron Rodgers threw just 25 touchdown passes, the expectation from the fantasy community is that Rodgers will rebound. With Davante Adams cemented as the No.1 target, who else shines if Rodgers gets back on track? Heading into his second season, Marquez Valdes-Scantling appears to be in line for a huge growth spurt. Alex Johnson provides a data-driven view of Valdes-Scantling’s outlook for 2019.
As Alex mentioned, the low ADP for Valdes-Scantling is puzzling. Yes, his primary competitor Geronimo Allison has more of a track record with Rodgers. But if Valdes-Scantling is the number two receiver, which has been widely speculated, why is Allison being drafted higher?
Green Bay possesses a large number of young receivers besides Valdes-Scantling. Nonetheless, Equanimeous St. Brown, J’Mon Moore, and Jake Kumerow do not appear to be serious threats for a high-volume role. Tight end Jimmy Graham has already reached ‘past his prime’ mode. While the Packers added Jace Sternberger in the draft to eventually replace Graham, Sternberger projects as more of a dynasty than redraft prospect in 2019.
Therefore, the battle lines are drawn between Allison and Valdes-Scantling. The winner lurks as a major difference maker for fantasy teams. The loser probably helps you out during bye weeks.
Minnesota Vikings
Alexander the Handcuff?
A superstar waiting to happen, Dalvin Cook’s only obstacle has been health. Cook’s rookie season in 2017 ended in Week Four. Last year, he was limited to 11 games. Despite the durability concerns, head coach Mike Zimmer wants Cook to anchor the offense. Zimmer’s staff now includes ground game guru Gary Kubiak, the former head coach of the Texans and Broncos. Zimmer also retained offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, who leaned on Cook the final three games of 2018 after being promoted to offensive play-caller. Provided the injury bug flies away, Cook will be a star.
Of course, we must look at alternatives if Cook again lands on the sidelines. Reliable reserve Latavius Murray left for New Orleans. Mike Boone, Roc Thomas, and Ameer Abdullah return, but the man to watch is rookie Alexander Mattison. A third-round pick out of Boise State, Mattison looks like the most likely handcuff. Other backfield success stories from the land of the blue turf include Jay Ajayi and Doug Martin.
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Make sure Mattison wins the job during the preseason, but if he does, he must be added if you take Cook. In fact, even if you do not draft Cook, Mattison merits a look as a late-round lottery ticket.
Tight End Tumult
One of fantasy football’s most disappointing players last year was Kyle Rudolph. Although Rudolph’s reception and yardage totals improved slightly from 2017, his touchdown total fell from eight to four. One of those four touchdowns occurred on a Hail Mary against Detroit. Minnesota gave Rudolph a new contract after offseason rumors surfaced of him heading elsewhere.
But the Vikings are not completely content with Rudolph long term. They used a second-round pick on Alabama’s Irv Smith back in April. Smith averaged 16.1 yards per reception and scored 7 touchdowns during his final season in Tuscaloosa. Even though it will take time for Smith to get acclimated, he will curtail Rudolph’s chances for a full rebound.
The fact Minnesota lacks a credible third wide receiver just happens to be the saving grace for this duo. If the Vikings elect to change their conservative mindset, growth beyond streaming value would be in the cards for Rudolph and Smith. But barring a drastic shift in philosophy, both look like TE2s.
