“My Guys” for the 2024 Fantasy Football Season
My Guys For 2024 Fantasy Football
Every fantasy footballer enters their draft with their eyes set on a handful of players. And those are the players they target in every draft, even if they have to “reach” for them compared to their ADP. These pre-season callouts can make or break teams. The season being right around the corner makes this a perfect time to make my callouts. Here are “my guys” that I’ll be targeting in every draft.
QB – Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray has had a very up and down career but one thing has remained consistent; his fantasy production. He’s never had a season averaging less than 18 fantasy points per game, even coming off the torn ACL. In seasons where he plays more than 14 games, he’s always finished as a top 10 quarterback. But this could be his best season yet. This is the best coaching staff he’s ever had as they utilize the run game significantly more which helps Murray’s running ability. He also has himself a brand new toy to play with in Marvin Harrison Jr. He’s already had elite fantasy seasons but this is arguably the best supporting cast he’s had. Now that he’s 2 years removed from the torn ACL, I expect this to be his best season.
QB – Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence was incredibly hyped coming into last season, however failed to pay dividends. That’s led to his value plummeting. However, he picked it up as he averaged 20.3 fantasy points per game after week 10. That was despite his supporting cast underwhelming. Specifically the receivers, constantly dropping big time throws and facing injuries. That’s been addressed with receivers that compliment Lawrence well. Last season, Lawrence ranked 4th in completions, 1st in touchdowns and 8th in passer rating in throws over 20+ yards. That led to them selecting deep threat Brian Thomas in the 1st round and signing Gabe Davis. Davis ranked 2nd in air yards/target and 4th in deep target rate last season. Both will likely be the best deep threat Lawrence has had in his career. Expect the Jaguars to be airing it out even more, utilizing Lawrence’s rocket arm more often.
QB – Bryce Young
We talked about a quarterback being victimized by a horrible situation with Lawrence, but no one had it worse than Bryce Young. From the coaches on the sidelines, to the receivers, the offensive line, the running game. Everything was abysmal. But the Panthers are taking steps in the right direction, addressing every problem listed. The best part of their offseason revamp was hiring Dave Canales. He’s a quarterback guru that has already revived the careers of 2 quarterbacks. Geno Smith went from an itinerant quarterback to the fantasy football QB5 under Canales and Baker Mayfield went from being quit on by his own team to the QB9. Young is next. With a new WR1, WR2 and upgraded offensive line, he’s in for a breakout season.
RB – Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry has been the most consistent fantasy running back in the last few years. From 2020-2022, he never finished lower than RB5 in fantasy points per game, however he took a dip last year, plummeting to RB16. Some think father time has finally caught up to him. In reality, it was the situation.
The Titans had significant QB issues which led to teams having no problem with stacking the box. The Titans ranked 2nd in opponent stacked box percentage which Henry understandably struggled against. Against-non-stacked boxes, Henry was more efficient, averaging 4.7 YPC. With the reigning MVP now under center, expect Henry to face less stacked boxes.
Additionally, Henry will be fed a huge workload as the Ravens were the most run heavy team in the league. The Ravens former running back, Gus Edwards, ranked 1st in carries inside the 5 and 6th inside the 10. Henry should expect similar usage as the bellcow in one of the most explosive offenses.
What part of Henry’s game is regressing? He has the same explosiveness, ranking 2nd in breakaway runs and 2nd in rushes of 20+ MPH. He has the same tackle breaking ability, ranking 10th in yards created and 6th in broken tackles. It’s the same ole Derrick Henry.
RB – James Cook
After losing to the Denver Broncos, the Buffalo Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replaced him with Joe Brady. That was the spark Cook’s rocket needed to take off. With Dorsey, Cook was putting up a pedestrian 11.6 fantasy points per game and 14.4 touches. Those numbers soared under Brady as he averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game and 19.6 touches.
The Bills were big on letting Josh Allen do everything and play hero ball with Ken Dorsey as they only averaged 25.4 runs per game. In a 17 game pace, that’s 432 runs which would’ve placed 24th. Brady decided to give Allen a sidekick in Cook. They averaged 36.1 runs per game under Brady. In a 17 game pace, that’s 626 runs which would’ve been 1st by almost 100 runs.
The Bills also traded Stefon Diggs and let Gabe Davis walk which could open up more receiving work for Cook. He already ranked 8th in receiving yards and 2nd in yards per reception and gets to add onto that. What did the Bills do to replace those receivers? Sign Curtis Samuel who can contribute to the run, sign Mack Hollins who’s an amazing run blocker and draft Keon Coleman who’s an amazing run blocker. Coincidence? Nope. The Bills are going to run the ball at will.
Cook was also extremely efficient. He ranked 9th in yards per carry and 5th in yards per touch. An efficient running back gets to be the clear RB1 on the most run heavy team in the league. That’s a recipe for a league winning player.
RB – Brian Robinson
Brian Robinson has had roadbumps in his entire career, whether it’s a gunshot or a coach that refuses to run the ball. Last season, the Commanders ranked deadlast in rushes. Good news, those coaches are gone. Kliff Kingsbury and Dan Quinn will without a doubt incorporate the run game more in their offense. With Robinson as the projected RB1, he’ll be fed and he’ll eat.
In limited opportunity, Robinson still had great efficiency that’s overlooked. He was 9th in fantasy points/opportunity and 12th in fantasy points/weighted opportunity. Additionally, he averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game in games where he played over 50% of the snaps. Robinson should consistently reach that mark under the new coaching staff that values running backs. The signing of Austin Ekeler doesn’t worry me. Hes’ taken a huge step back recently and won’t be a major threat in Robinson’s workload.
WR – Chris Olave
Chris Olave’s hype train derailed last season as he was incredibly underwhelming. However, it’s important to note that Derek Carr injured his throwing shoulder in week 3. He suffered an AC joint sprain but played through it, despite the recovery timeline typically being 2-8 weeks. The Saints bye week was week 11 which conveniently marked 8 weeks after Carr’s injury (the estimated recovery time). After the bye week, Olave reminded everyone why he was so hyped, averaging 15.5 fantasy points per game and 7.3 targets.
Many are hesitant on Olave because of the narrative that Carr is a “checkdown merchant” and can’t support a field stretcher like Olave. Is he really or was it the injury tainting his throwing ability? Pre bye week, when Carr was injured, he was 11/33 (33% completion percentage) when targeting Olave in throws over 10 yards. This is when the checkdown jokes started to form. After the bye week, when Carr’s estimated recovery time was finished, he was 13/18 (72% completion percentage) on throws targeting Olave over 10 yards. A drastic improvement.
Additionally, when Carr was healthy in 2022, he ranked 4th in air yards/attempt and 4th in deep throws. Carr isn’t a checkdown merchant, he was just injured. And he’s more than capable of being able to support Olave.
Olave’s situation is getting much better. The Saints got rid of Michael Thomas and Olave thrived without him. He averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game with Thomas but boosted it up to 16.1 fantasy points per game without. That’s despite seeing a decrease in snaps and targets without Thomas which I doubt will sustain with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. Kubiak comes from a motion-heavy 49ers offense. Olave ranked 4th in yards per route when in motion. With a healthy quarterback, less target competition and a new offensive coordinator, a bounce back from Olave is imminent.
WR – Davante Adams
Gardner Minshew is the new guy under center for the Raiders. He’s started 10+ games in 2 seasons. In those seasons, he supported Michael Pittman as the fantasy WR15 and DJ Chark as the fantasy WR16. Neither of those guys are near Adams’ caliber. Although Adams had an underwhelming season, however was stuck in a disaster. He ranked 69th in catchable target rate and 1st in unrealized air yards. Minshew isn’t ideal either, but he’s better than what Adams had and has proved to be able to support star fantasy recievers.
Another problem though; there’s some target traffic. With a offensive coordinator notorious for being overly run heavy in Luke Getsy, how is the ball supposed to be distributed to Adams, Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers? That shouldn’t be a problem for Adams. When Antonio Pierce took over, Adams ranked 1st in route rate, 4th in target share and 4th in 1st team reads. Over the whole season, Adams ranked 3rd in air yards and 1st in air yards share. Getting the ball to Adams is and has always been a priority with the Raiders.
WR – Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas was one of the most polarizing recievers in the draft. With his freakish athleticism, the Jaguars spent a premium pick on him. And they’ve given him big shoes to fill. The Jaguars rank 5th in vacated targets, specifically coming from Calvin Ridley leaving. Ridley ranked 3rd in redzone targets and 4th in targets inside the 10. At 6’3 and 209 lbs, Thomas will fulfill the role as Trevor Lawrence’s go-to redzone guy. Lawrence also ranked 7th in deep pass percentage, perfect for a deep threat like Thomas. Everything the Jaguars needed from a receiver, Thomas posseses. He has a path to becoming the WR1 immediately.
WR – Khalil Shakir
Khalil Shakir has been lingering in the shadows of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis for his entire career. Now is his time to burst out. The Bills rank 2nd in vacated targets and didn’t do much to fill them in the offseason. They did acquire Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel but the door to the WR1 spot is still wide open.
Shakir started to play significantly more as the season went on, playing over 50% of the snaps in 9 out of the final 10 games. He’s proven to be a reliable target, ranking 3rd in QB passer rating when thrown to and 1st in catch percentage. He’s also a threat after the catch, being 4th in yards after catch/reception. A safety blanket with dangerous playmaking ability after the catch is a quarterback’s best friend. It helps that Shakir’s quarterback is one of the best in the league.
TE – Jake Ferguson
There aren’t many tight ends that are a clear top 2 option in their offense. Ferguson is one of them, yet is being overlooked. It doesn’t make any sense. The Cowboys were already a pass heavy team but now that they lost Tony Pollard, they should be looking to throw even more. Dak Prescott looked Ferguson’s way often, especially in the red zone. Ferguson ranked 5th in both red zone targets and targets inside the 10. He had plenty of opportunities for touchdowns but only converted for 5 of them. Based on his red zone targets, I expect him to have positive touchdown regression.
Ferguson wasn’t just a redzone merchant either. Prescott was looking for him everywhere, especially late in the season, averaging 7.3 targets in his final 6 games. In a 17 game pace, that would’ve been 3rd. Ferguson is going to get a plethora of targets and his fantasy production will thrive.
TE – Ben Sinnott
The Washington Commanders made a hefty investment in Ben Sinnott, taking him in the early 2nd round when his consensus was in the 3rd round. Jahan Dotson was also just traded, leaving the door for the #2 option in the passing game open. Sinnott has surely earned that mark. The draft capital checks out, the talent checks out and he experienced a strong preseason. It’s not crazy to assume Sinnott is a primary target for fellow rookie Jayden Daniels.
The Commanders did sign Zach Ertz but he’s also 33 years old coming off two injury plagued seasons. Ertz may mainly be there for mentor reasons. He’s played a part in the development of Dallas Goedert and Trey McBride. Sinnott is next up on the list.
Who are your “my guys” for 2024 fantasy football? Join us on Discord and let’s discuss!
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