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Courtland Sutton, Broncos
Courtland Sutton is your prototypical alpha wide receiver. At 6-3, 218-pounds, he has above average speed and burst with elite agility and an incredible catch radius. With a combination of Drew Lock, Joe Flacco, and Brandon Allen at quarterback in 2019, Sutton managed 1,112 yards and six touchdowns on 72 receptions (124 targets). After missing nearly the entire 2020 season with a torn ACL, Sutton came back with a solid 2021 campaign. He had three 20+ point outings in the first six weeks. From there, he struggled to produce consistently while being hindered by Denver’s ever-worsening game of quarterback musical chairs.
Still, he led the team in targets and receiving yards. The peripheral numbers were encouraging, too. He finished the season eighth in air yards (1,534), fifth in unrealized air yards, second in average target distance (15.7), and sixth in deep targets (29) (PlayerProfiler.com). With new Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson—one of the league’s best deep ball passers—now tossing him the rock, Sutton could be one of the most productive receivers in the league in 2022. We know he’ll be on the field a ton—he was top-15 in snap share in 2021 while running a route on 92-percent of Denver’s drop-backs.
Somehow, he’s still being drafted at about the same ADP as teammate Jerry Jeudy despite the fact that Sutton has proven it and Jeudy is more of a projection. And let’s not pretend it hasn’t been a concerning offseason for Jeudy with an arrest and a mini-camp injury.
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Allen Robinson, Rams
Allen Robinson’s quarterbacks since college: Matt McGloin, Christian Hackenburg, Blake Bortles, Mitchell Trubisky, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, and Justin Fields. Somehow, he has still managed to be one of the more productive wide receivers since entering the NFL. He has multiple top-12 fantasy seasons, including back-to-back years with the Bears in 2019 and 2020. In both of those seasons, he topped 150 targets and 1,100 receiving yards. And let’s not forget about his incredible 2015 season when he caught 80 balls for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. Injuries, quarterback, and contract situations led to 2021 being a lost season. But now he is teamed up with Matthew Stafford and in line for a career renaissance.
Robinson is stepping into a role that has led to multiple productive seasons from Robert Woods. During his time as the WR2 in the Sean McVay offense, Woods never saw his target share drop below 21.5-percent. Even Odell Beckham saw a healthy share of the targets in his short time as the WR2 in LA last season. Cooper Kupp is a candidate for at least a little regression from his incredible 2022 campaign—lending more opportunity for targets and touchdowns for Robinson.
Michael Pittman Jr., Colts
Michael Pittman is good. He proved that at USC and he proved it with the Colts in 2021. While the volume might not have been what we wanted with an erratic Carson Wentz at quarterback, Pittman ranked No.4 in PlayerProfiler.com’s route win rate metric (51.3%), meaning only three receivers in the NFL beat their coverage at a higher rate. Pittman rarely comes off the field. He played nearly 90-percent of the snaps and only Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase had a higher rate of routes run per pass play. Over the last six weeks, Pittman commanded a significant 31-percent target share, a metric in which he ranked No.14 for the duration of the season.
With T.Y. Hilton gone, there are absolutely zero threats to Pittman’s target share on the roster. And now he gets a quarterback upgrade to Matt Ryan. Ryan has a history of peppering his WR1s with a ton of targets and propelling them to top-12 scoring seasons (Roddy White, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley). Pittman will be the next man on that list. Ryan is more experienced and has a higher football IQ than the incumbent Wentz. This will allow for more pass attempts and a faster pace-of-play and, therefore, more high-value opportunities for Pittman. That includes in the red zone, where Pittman is a particularly dangerous weapon. He uses his 6-4, 223-pound frame to box out defenders and win in contested situations. In fact, he ranked in the top-5 in contested situations, hauling in over 40-percent of his contested opportunities. He was the target of 17 pass attempts inside the 20 last season, converting for eight receptions and six touchdowns. It would be no surprise to see him haul in double-digit scores in 2022.
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