2023 Rookie Wide Receivers: Managing Expectations

Managing Expectations For 2023 Rookie Wide Receivers

Year after year, the NFL welcomes a new pool of talented rookies. In those rookie classes, one of the deepest positions in each draft tends to be the wide receivers. And for good reason: the league continues to be pass oriented. And as a result, wide receivers are welcoming Brinks trucks and turning into one of the higher paying positions. A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Cooper Kupp have all signed massive contracts this offseason. Other deals are expected for DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin in the not so distant future.

But how did they fair in their rookie seasons? How should we be managing expectations for rookie receivers in this year’s class? Let’s look at how rookies have performed in their first NFL season, along with traits from their college careers.

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Rookie Finishes

Over the last six years, 191 receivers have been selected in the NFL Draft. Based on total points in half-PPR format, here is how rookies finished in their first season:

As it takes most rookies time to get acclimated in their first professional season, it should be no surprise to the slow starts. Looking at previous years, the most top-36 rookie receivers in a given class has been five. However, we have seen rookies pay off in recent years, with two producing WR1 numbers and five as WR2 over the last three years. At worse, we have seen WR2 production from at least one receiver in each class going back to 2017. Garrett Wilson barely kept the streak going, finishing as the WR22 in total points.

But we can dive deeper into what makes rookies stand out early in their careers. One trait many look at when evaluating receivers is their class ranking upon entering the league.

Declaring Early

Receivers declaring early often leads to fantasy success. Of the 28 receivers who finished better than WR5, 20 declared early:

Chase Claypool, Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, Terry McLaurin, Darius Slayton, Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, and Christian Watson are the eight standouts to stay for a full college career. Only Claypool finished as a WR2; six finished as WR3s and Christian Watson finished as a WR4. Of this year’s receivers selected in the first three rounds, Zay Flowers, Jonathan Mingo, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Cedric Tillman, Michael Wilson, and Tre Tucker chose to play their senior season and not declare early.

Round selection also plays a factor. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Darius Slayton are the only Day 3 rookies to finish as a WR3 or better over the last five years. Additionally, four Day 3 receivers in this six year window have finished as top-60 in total points for half-PPR leagues: Darnell Mooney, Gabriel Davis, Antonio Callaway, and Hunter Renfrow. But what about those who are selected on Day 1 of the NFL Draft?

1st Round Selections

If you are planning on selecting a rookie wide receiver, 1st round selections have delivered the most consistently.

Of the 19 receivers to finish as a WR3 or better in their rookie seasons, nine were 1st round selections. Seven of those nine declared early; only Olave and Aiyuk stayed for four years. Three of the four 1st round wide receiver selections this year were early declares: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, and Jordan Addison. Zay Flowers of the Ravens was the only non-early declare who was a 1st round wide receiver selection.

Conference Selection

The conference of a player tends to matter as well:

Makes sense; the top talent, typically, goes to Power Five schools. And if they start at a Group of Five school, with the activity of the transfer portal and NIL money at major universities, players will likely transfer to the larger school.

17 of the 19 wide receivers who finished as a top-36 WR came from a Power Five school. Only Chase Claypool (Notre Dame; FBS Independent) and Cooper Kupp (Eastern Washington) managed to produce as a WR3 or better.

Over the last six years, only four rookies finished as a WR4 or better who did not come from a Power Five school – Claypool, Kupp, Diontae Johnson (Toledo), and Christian Watson (North Dakota State). In this year’s class, Rashee Rice, Nathaniel Dell, and Tre Tucker were all Day 2 picks from Group of Five schools. This list will change over the next few years, as Houston and Cincinnati are a few schools moving from the AAC to the Big 12 thanks to conference realignment.

The SEC rookie receivers tend to play the best. Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson – both from LSU and declaring early – have the WR1 finishes. The SEC has produced 45 receivers over the last six years, doubling every other conference with the exception of the Big Ten’s 26. Nine of the 19 receivers who have finished as top-36 receivers come from the SEC; only two conferences have more than one: the PAC 12 and Big Ten with three. The only SEC receiver who declared early this year, and went in the first three rounds, was Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt.

Conclusion

Unlofty expectations for rookie wide receivers to finish as a WR1 will likely leave you disappointed. The debut seasons we saw from Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are few and far between. With that said, we should expect a couple of receivers to contribute to your fantasy football roster this year. Do not hesitate in grabbing your favorite rookie receiver in this year’s draft. Just be mindful of their conference status and if they declared early.