2023 Rookie Quarterbacks: Managing Expectations

Managing Expectations For 2023 Rookie Quarterbacks

Year after year, the NFL welcomes a new pool of talented rookies. And every year, quarterbacks soar up NFL Draft boards. After all: it is the most crucial position in professional sports.

But how do quarterbacks fair in their rookie seasons? How should we be managing expectations for the 2023 rookie quarterbacks? Let’s look at how rookies have performed in their first NFL season – and how they back it up in their sophomore season.

FREE: 2023 Rookie Draft Guide

Rookie Finishes

To keep the ‘Managing Rookie Expectations‘ series consistent, we go back the last six years. In that span, 66 quarterbacks were selected in the NFL Draft. Based on total points in 4-point per passing touchdown scoring formats, here is how rookies finished in their first season:

Rookie quarterbacks have been unreliable in fantasy football leagues in that span. This is based on total points, so any quarterback who doesn’t start right away is put behind the eight-ball. The two QB1 finishes came from Justin Herbert in 2020 (QB10) and Kyler Murray in 2019 (QB7). Some quarterbacks – Joe Burrow in 2020 and Deshaun Watson in 2017 – began the year strong, but suffered season-ending injuries. Burrow averaged 17.9 PPG over his first 10 weeks, while Watson averaged 24.1 PPG over a seven-week span. Outside of the four aforementioned rookie quarterbacks, only Daniel Jones – QB22 in 2019 – averaged over 17 PPG (17.6).

But for those few who have performed, we look at where they were selected in that April’s NFL Draft.

1st Round Selections

Of the 66 quarterbacks selected over the last six years, here is the breakdown of which round they were selected:

As mentioned in the intro, it should be no surprise that the standout rookies were first round selections. Their draft stock rises due to their importance to the team. Even so, just 9.5% of first round rookies have finished as a QB1. And over 65% were not reliable, even in Superflex or 2-Quarterback leagues.

That number gets worse when you move to Day 2 and 3 selections. As great as Brock Purdy was last year for the 49ers, he averaged just 11.3 PPG for fantasy football. Gardner Minshew is the only non-first round pick who played any role, as he finished as the QB23 in 2019.

So while rookie quarterbacks may not be the most reliable, how do they progress into their sophomore season?

Year 2 Quarterbacks

Based on their draft year, here is how quarterbacks faired in their second year in the NFL.

By round selected:

A much more promising performance across the board. Each draft class from 2017 thru 2021 has produced a QB1, with every year but 2019 producing multiple QB1s in their second year. From 2018 thru 2020, a second year quarterback scored the most points in fantasy football – Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray. Mahomes and Jackson were named MVP in their second season.

Each of the ten QB1s in their second year finished in the top-10. Only Patrick Mahomes didn’t finish as a QB3 or better as a rookie, as he backed up Alex Smith his rookie season.

Conclusion

We get excited about the hype surrounding each rookie class, yet it’s important to remember it takes time to translate to the NFL. Rookie quarterbacks have proven, in spurts, they can help your fantasy football team. But more often than not, the veteran quarterbacks are more reliable.

Looking back at trends, it likely one or two of the 2023 rookie quarterbacks will contribute in their first season. If one were to breakout and become a QB1, it will likely be from the first round – Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, or Anthony Richardson.

But the better option may be a second year quarterback like Kenny Pickett. He is a former 1st round pick in a talented offense, entering his second season in a system. Desmond Ridder also fits the bill, although third round picks don’t have the success or longevity as first rounders. Ridder would be worth a late round flyer in fantasy football redraft leagues.