Late-Round Wide Receivers You Need To Know For 2023 Fantasy Football
2023 Late Round Wide Receivers
If you read the first edition of my late-round target series, you know that hitting on players in the double-digit rounds can elevate a bad team to a playoff team and a good team to a championship team. All it takes is one injury or unexpected change in workload for a player to propel their fantasy value. You also know I said hitting on late-round running backs was easier than late-round receivers, because when injury or inefficiency does hit a running back, a majority of their workload tends to fall on one player.
I still stand by that. Finding “breakout” or “league-winning” running backs is easier. However, finding safe and reliable wide receivers is admittedly easier in the later rounds. Most teams have about 1.5 usable running backs (meaning some backups have standalone value, regardless of the starter). Meanwhile, most teams have at least two viable receivers for fantasy. With that being the case, there are more usable options in the wide receiver pool. That means it isn’t QUITE as tough to pick the right ones because there are more options to choose from. However, it can still be the difference between winning and losing your league.
Here are my two favorite late-round wide receivers to target in 2023.
More: Deciphering The Eagles Backfield: Which Running Back To Target
Allen Lazard
Lazard was the favorite target of Aaron Rodgers last season in Green Bay, connecting for 788 yards and six touchdowns. Now the two are back together for 2023, this time with the Jets. Another ex-Packer will join them, as the Jets hired former Green Bay offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, for the same role. Those two familiar faces are a potentially great sign for Lazard’s fantasy outlook. In the three seasons that Hackett was the OC in Green Bay, they were top 10 in passing yards and top four in passing touchdowns in two of them.
While Garrett Wilson should be the top option in the passing attack, the second option has fared well in Rodgers offenses. In 13 seasons that Rodgers has played 10-plus games, the teams’ WR2 has 11 seasons with 600-plus yards. Six of those seasons were also 800-plus yards. Three of those seasons also netted the WR2 1,000-plus yards. In one of the sub-600-yard seasons, the WR2-5 all had 400-plus yards, so it was a tremendously ambiguous group behind the top option. In one of the sub-800-yard seasons, the WR2 had 679 yards, while the next two receivers had 582 and 565 yards. Again, a pretty ambiguous group.
Along with the yards comes a plethora of targets. In those same 13 seasons, Rodgers targeted his WR2 an average of 94 times. Six of those seasons saw the target number eclipse Lazard’s career high. The only time he has seen 100 targets was last season, where he had his best season as a pro and finished as the WR35. Assuming the Rodgers WR2 averages stay true, Lazard will likely have a good chance to put up the same type of performance he had last season.
As far as Rodgers’ numbers go, he has failed to reach 4,000 passing yards in just three of his 13 healthy seasons. One of those seasons was a 3,922-yard performance in just 15 games, so those three seasons are really just two. Assuming Garrett Wilson takes another step in his season, he could approach the 1,300-1,400 yard receiving range. If that’s the case, there is still 2,600 yards left to reach 4,000 for Rodgers.
Yes, Breece Hall is a well above-average receiving back. The likes of Mecole Hardman, Corey Davis, Randall Cobb, and even Denzel Mims could take targets from him. Tyler Conklin and CJ Uzomah are also decent options at tight end. However, if I had to guess, I would say all of those guys compete with each other for the third option, fourth option, etc. The rapport he already has with Rodgers could be the deciding factor on why Lazard is second in targets. Aside from Cobb (who is WELL beyond his productive years), none of the other players I listed have spent time with Rodgers prior to this season.
The graphic below shows the trust that Rodgers had in Lazard last season. Getting that volume of deep targets, and especially red zone targets, is huge for becoming a consistent fantasy football threat. In the past two seasons, Lazard has ranked 12th and 16th in red zone targets, which has led to the 14th most touchdowns by a receiver in that span. Assuming that trend continues, his touchdown total will be an added bonus to the target volume he is likely to get.
Just like with my late-round running backs, I will play the hypothetical game to put a stat line together for Lazard. Over the past 15 seasons, Rodgers has averaged 34 pass attempts per game, and I don’t expect that to change much this year. Assuming he plays a full 17 games, that would be 579 attempts for the season. Wide receivers saw 61-percent of his attempts last season. I’ll split that evenly by three to evenly adjust for Wilson’s likely high target share and the other 2-3 relevant receivers’ lesser target share.
With a 20-percent share of 579 attempts, Lazard would see 116 targets. Take that number by his 65-percent career catch rate, and you’re looking at 75 receptions. Again, take that number by his career 13.2 yards, and you get a whopping 990 yards. Throw in a handful of touchdowns, and you’re looking at a great season. A stat line of 75 receptions, 990 yards, and five touchdowns comes out to 204 PPR points. That would have been good for a WR23 finish last season. Do I expect Lazard to hit those numbers? No. That would be on the upper end of his range of outcomes. However, even if he is in the 50-reception, 700-yard, four touchdown range, he would still be right around where his current ADP sits (WR50).
While Lazard’s best season is just 60 receptions, 788 yards, and six touchdowns, it was also the only year he wasn’t behind an elite wide receiver. It was also the worst statistical season of Aaron Rodgers’ career (when healthy). No, he likely won’t be the top option in New York. Luckily though, Garrett Wilson isn’t at the level of Davante Adams, who Lazard was sharing the field with for all but one season of his career.
So while I don’t expect Lazard to get quite the same target share he had last season as Rodgers’ top target (22.7-percent), I expect him to sit in the 16-20 percent range. Assuming Rodgers has a bounce-back year, that should be more than enough for Lazard to produce well over his current ADP. For someone going outside the top 100 picks, I don’t think you can get a floor AND ceiling quite like Lazard.
More: Garrett Wilson 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Tyler Boyd
Tyler Boyd’s consistency over the past five seasons has been exceptional. It is nearly unmatched for a player who is currently being drafted as the 51st player at their position. Since 2018, the fewest yards and touchdowns he has had is 776 and four, which happened in separate seasons. The lowest he has finished in that time is WR33. Furthermore, his consistency has stayed even with the addition of two of the best receivers in the league.
The days of being a top-20 level receiver are likely over with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in the mix. Yet, he still has value that far exceeds his current ADP. Since Higgins was drafted in 2020, Boyd’s end of season ranks are as follows: 2020 – 29, 2021 – 31, 2022 – 33. Personally, I cannot think of a single reason as to why Boyd’s ADP is where it is. There were no major additions to the receiver room, with rookies Charlie Jones and Andrei Iosivas being the only newcomers. Hayden Hurst left and was replaced by Irv Smith, which is likely a parallel move at best. The role of Samaje Perine, who was Joe Mixon’s backup last season and grabbed 51 targets, will now fall to Trayveon Williams and rookie Chase Brown. I don’t imagine those two seeing the same target share.
The depth chart is almost perfectly intact from last season. That means his target share and efficiency should be close to what they were over the past three years. The graphic below shows some of the reasons why he has been a WR3 for the past three seasons. The yards per route run is so low due to him being the third option behind two of the best receivers in the league. However, his yards per target and per reception more than make up for his low target share. Also, his true catch rate (which factors in uncatchable balls) is elite. If he gets accurate targets (which happens quite often given his top-30 target accuracy), he is going to catch it.
He is also one of the most consistent week to week performers in the range he is going in drafts. Last season, 9 of his 16 games netted at least 7.6 fantasy points. That average, over the course of a 17 game season, would have been good for a WR22 finish. Yes, he is going to have down weeks. It’s almost a guarantee when you’re the third option in an offense. However, getting that level of production in over half of a late round pick’s games is very hard to find.
Time for hypotheticals again. Except it’s not really a hypothetical, because he should have almost identical stats to what he’s had in the past. His two-year average in targets is 88, with his 71-percent catch rate garnering him 62 receptions. Take that by his 12.7 yards per reception average and you get 787 yards. Add in his typical five touchdowns and his fantasy point total gets to 170.7. You’ll never guess where that would have landed him last season…WR37. He’s a safe bye week, injury, or flex fill-in option, with upside if an injury slows Higgins or Chase. Grab Boyd in the 8-10 round range and get a steady producer for your lineup.
Who are you targeting at wide receiver in the later rounds of 2023 fantasy football drafts? Let us know! Jump in our Discord and join the discussion!
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