Kenny G: Superstar Wideout?
Every year, it seems like we talk about the same guys. Michael Thomas. Davante Adams. Julio Jones. Target hogs that demand 30% of the market share every time they step on the field. This year, however, there’s a receiver that could buck the trend. A receiver that gives you all the production at a fraction of the cost of the top tier guys. I’m talking, of course, about Kenny G.
No, not the saxophone player, although an argument can be made that he’s just as smooth as one. I’m talking about the 6’4”, 218 lb. freak of nature with a 4.50 40 yard dash: Kenny Golladay, WR1 for the Detroit Lions. Having exploded onto the scene last season to the tune of 1190 receiving yards and a league leading 11(!) touchdowns, Golladay is far from under the radar. However, this year Kenny Golladay could take his breakout 2019 season a step further and solidify his position as one of the elite receivers in the game and the perfect WR1 for your fantasy team.
Harden-esque Target Profile
Anyone familiar with James Harden and the Houston Rockets knows their offensive philosophy: Efficiency, Efficiency, Efficiency. Rarely will you see Harden take anything other than a three-pointer or a layup, widely believed to be the two most efficient shots in basketball.
Is Kenny Golladay a WR1 In 2020? Check Our Rankings!
Golladay, like Harden, has the same “Moneyball” style of play. Of Golladay’s 116 targets, 31.9% went for 20 or more air yards, second among wide receivers, behind only Chargers vertical threat, Mike Williams. However, the 37 deep targets were good enough for 1st in the league, by a wide margin (Stefon Diggs and John Brown were second with 31). Additionally, 13, or 11.2%, of Golladay’s targets were inside the opponents ten yard line, both good for first among wide receivers. Golladay maximizes output with every target, with 43% of his targets attempting either a massive gain or a touchdown.
The Ultimate Touchdown Threat
Using data from nflfastR, I plotted the air yards on touchdowns for the top eight receiving touchdown leaders last season. Slot specialists like Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin thrive in the 10 air-yard range, finding holes in zone defenses and breaking off long touchdowns. Big bodied receivers like Michael Thomas and Golladay’s teammate, Marvin Jones, use their large frames to break tackles and body smaller corners in the endzone. Mark Andrews and Jared Cook leave linebackers in the dust, exploding for 20 yard TDs up the seam.
However, Golladay is a completely different creature. His touchdown profile is of a red zone threat created on Madden 20. He can use his 6’4” frame to box out helpless cornerbacks in the endzone just as easily as he uses his 4.5 40 speed to take a go route 50 yards to the house. Whether he’s at the five yard line or the 50, Kenny G is always a threat to score.
What Does It All Mean?
At this point you may be asking yourself, “What does this have to do with fantasy?” Some may have forgotten that this is even a fantasy article. I honestly wouldn’t blame you; there’s hardly any mention of standard fantasy scoring phrases, such as raw reception total, touchdowns, target volume, etc. Yet these efficiency stats have more to do with fantasy scoring than you may realize. Both “big play volume” and “targets inside the 10” are very strongly correlated to touchdown rate and, in turn, fantasy points. Big play volume has a Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient, or r-value, of 0.9, indicating incredibly strong correlation. The number of targets inside the 10 yard line a player receives has an r-value of 0.81, which also indicates a strong correlation.
In hindsight, the correlation seems fairly obvious. Higher big play volume leads to more opportunities to produce the best play in fantasy: the long passing touchdown. You get the points for the touchdown, the reception, and yards gained. Some leagues even give bonus points for longer touchdowns. Often, a long passing touchdown will cover the expected point total for the week on its own. The number of red zone targets will almost certainly correlate with touchdowns, with over 45% of the touchdowns in the league last year coming inside the 10 yard line.
Feed Kenny G
Unlike many of his contemporaries, Kenny Golladay is a unique player in the sense that he doesn’t need a large amount of volume to produce. He doesn’t need the target share of a Michael Thomas or a Davante Adams. Last season, in a breakout year mind you, Golladay had a target share of only 18%. 18% target share and he was still able to put up 1190 yards and 11 touchdowns. Whether it’s Stafford, David Blough, or even the waterboy under center, Golladay will just keep reeling in touchdowns. And if he gets the target share of an Adams or a Thomas? Well, you better look out, because Kenny G is going to be playing his smooth jazz all the way to the fantasy title.
