Kadarius Toney: A Value In Dynasty Rookie Drafts?
Kadarius Toney was a late breakout at Florida after multiple seasons of injuries and being used as more of a gadget player. He started two games as a freshman—once at receiver and once at running back. He finished the year with 15 receptions, 14 carries, and 272 yards from scrimmage. Toney was suspended for the first game of the 2018 season for “not living up to the Gator standard.” He returned to a backup role with some snaps as a wildcat quarterback.
Toney took on a similar role as a junior, finishing with 10 receptions for 194 yards and a touchdown pass with 59 yards on the ground. He was limited to seven games due to a shoulder injury. In his 2020 senior season, Toney finally took on a larger role. He led the Gators with 70 receptions for 984 yards (14.1 YPR). He also carried 19 times for 161 yards while scoring 12 total touchdowns as a receiver, runner, and returner.
See Where Kadarius Toney Lands In Our Dynasty Rankings!
Toney is fast (62nd-percentile Speed Score) with elite burst (96th-percentile Burst Score). While that’s all well and good, his production profile is lacking. Some of the most important factors we look for in a wide receiver prospect are College Dominator Rating, College Target Share, and Breakout Age. Toney falls in the 30th-percentile or worse (PlayerProfiler) in each of those categories. In fact, Toney didn’t see a double-digit target share until his final season at Florida.
Despite the concerning age-adjusted production profile, the Giants chose Toney 20th overall after missing out on Devonta Smith and trading back. Clearly, they chose Toney with the hopes that he can develop into his raw athleticism. He joins a Giants receiving corps with three established veterans—including big free agent ticket Kenny Golladay—as well as Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard in the slot. That doesn’t even count running back Saquon Barkley and tight ends Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph ahead of the rookie for targets. With that said, it’s hard to believe a first round wide receiver will be limited to return duties and reserve snaps. He’ll get his opportunity to get on the field which will help accrue value in dynasty formats.
Value Is Value
There’s a lot of hate on Toney’s profile, and rightfully so. I was fading him in pre-draft mocks and rankings myself. However, there comes a point in a rookie draft where value is value. As mentioned earlier, there are a number of factors that go into a rookie evaluation. Perhaps the most important of them all, though, is draft capital. While not to be taken to the extreme, we have to accept that sometimes the NFL knows things that we don’t. Yes, even when it’s Dave Gettleman. Plus, high draft capital basically locks a player into opportunity. There is certainly a non-zero chance that Toney develops into his raw athleticism—he is still somewhat new to the wide receiver position after all—and becomes a relevant fantasy starter for multiple seasons.
So, even if we aren’t completely sold on him as a player, there comes that point where we have to accept the value and press the button in rookie drafts. When is that? Right around the middle of the second round in 1QB leagues. While Toney was ranked outside the top-20 rookies in our pre-draft rankings, he is now inside the top-15. It’s about playing the probabilities. It may not feel the best, but hold your nose and take the value in the middle of the second round.
