Justin Herbert is…good?? Week 3 Rookie Stock Update
So after a massive over-reaction in Week 1, I’m assuming we’re all flip-flopping and only largely over-reacting the other way in Week 2? Don’t worry, by Week 4 there will be a much smaller swing and we’ll only be slightly over-reacting!
With so many injuries hitting the NFL in Week 2, there could be increased chances for the rookies who are starting to establish their roles and for some rookies who might now get an opportunity that they weren’t otherwise likely to get.
As noted in my introduction to this series, each week I’m going to do a stock take on the rookies, review how they’re progressing and speculate on their outlook for the rest of the season. I’ll start with the categories I identified in the previous week and note which players are moving up or down between those categories. Here is the Week 3 rookie stock update.
Starters
Quarterback
- Joe Burrow
61 pass attempts. 61. Just take that in for a second.
That’s up there with the highest single game records for any QBs, and second amongst rookies. His 37 completions is also a rookie record, and I suspect the first of many.
He’s still a little raw as you’d expect, his 20-percent bad throw rate (per Pro Football Reference) is top five amongst QBs so far in 2020 but so is his On Target throw rate. And that’s all whilst being blitzed A LOT by the Browns on Thursday night, on his way to three passing touchdowns and a top 10 fantasy performance in the second week of his NFL career. The stats back up what the eye-test tells us, he’s an exciting player that we’re going to enjoy watching for years to come.
Running Back
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Jonathan Taylor
- Cam Akers
- Antonio Gibson
- Zack Moss
- Joshua Kelley
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | ||
| Snaps | 48 (62-percent) | Last Week: 46 (67-percent) |
| Carries | 10 (45-percent) | Last Week: 25 (74-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 1 (50-percent) | Last week: 9 (100-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 (team total = 0) | Last week: 7 (100-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 8 (17-percent) | Last week: 2 |
A different look from last week, as the Chiefs struggled to assert their dominance against the Chargers. This took the onus away from the ground game and in to the air. CEH was still the feature back, with a similar snap count to week one but a lower carry total, as Mahomes was the one to take the lions share of the remaining rushes. The good news for CEH, eight targets (17-percent target share) and an almost absent Darrel Williams. No goal-line attempts to get stuffed on this week but then there wasn’t much red zone work at all for the Chiefs in a game punctuated by a strong Chargers defense and long Touchdowns. I suspect we’ve just witnessed his floor.
| Jonathan Taylor | ||
| Snaps | 49 (67-percent) | Last Week: 26 (35-percent) |
| Carries | 26 (65-percent) | Last Week: 9 (41-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 6 (86-percent) | Last Week: 2 (33-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 2 (100-percent) | Last Week: 1 (33-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 2 (8-percent) | Last Week: 6 |
That’s what we wanted to see! A nice chunk of the snap share, a very healthy 26 carries, 100-percent of the redzone carries and a rushing touchdown. Jonathan Taylor Szn is indeed in full swing. Not much going through the air for him in week two but they didn’t need to, such was their dominance over the Vikings and over the clock in this game. To that end, Nyheim Hines was a complete non-factor and only got one target himself, so no concerns here about Taylor’s role moving forward (thank goodness considering I’ll need him to fill in for Saquon Barkley in one league…).
| Cam Akers | ||
| Snaps | 3 (4-percent) | Last Week: 24 (33-percent of team total) |
| Carries | 3 (8-percent) | Last Week: 14 (35-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 1 (28-percent) | Last Week: 1 (14-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (28-percent) | Last Week: 1(25-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 0 | Last Week: 1 |
Lets start with a positive slant. Akers was first man up and took the first three carries of the game for the Rams. Awesome, great news. But following an injury to his ribs on that third carry, his game was over with over 11 minutes of the first quarter still remaining. What’s really going to hurt Akers’ stock is that Darrell Henderson had a good game. Not sure at this stage what sort of time (if any) Akers will miss but the best case scenario sees him as part of a three-headed monster. Worst case scenario is that Henderson takes his opportunity and establishes himself as a primary back, leaving Akers with the scraps. Through not much fault of his own, this really hurts Akers.
| Antonio Gibson | ||
| Snaps | 43 (65-percent) | Last Week: 18 (26-percent of team total) |
| Carries | 13 (57-percent) | Last Week: 9 (25-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 2 (50-percent) | Last Week: 1 (6-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: 1 (10-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 2 (6-percent) | Last Week: 2 |
Remember how I said the hype may have been a little overblown? Forget that. Antonio Gibson was the guy on the ground for the Washington Football Team in week two. Remember how Peyton Barber was causing him problems? Forget that. He played one snap. Remember how JD McKissic was getting more targets than Gibson? Forget that. He didn’t get any. Now, to be fair, Gibson only got a couple of targets himself and McKissic was still sharing some of the redzone work, but make no mistake Gibson was the main man here with 13 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Load him up again in week 3 against the Browns.
| Zack Moss | ||
| Snaps | 28 (46-percent) | Last Week: 39 (45-percent of team total) |
| Carries | 8 (35-percent) | Last Week: 9 (28-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 0 | Last Week: 7 (70-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: 4 (80-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 0 | Last Week: 4 |
A difficult game for Moss, with six of his eight carries coming on one series in the second quarter and then almost non-existent thereafter. Singletary was the primary back to start the game, got a slightly larger share of the carries (10 to Moss’ 8) and all three of the backfield targets. Moss’ goal-line role seemed to disappear in this game as well with Singletary getting the few touches that were available down there. A tough game for Moss but he was still on the field for 46-percent of snaps so he’ll continue to have a significant involvement.
| Joshua Kelley | ||
| Snaps | 43 (52-percent) | Last Week: 18 (24-percent of team total) |
| Carries | 23 (52-percent) | Last Week: 12 (31-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 4 (57-percent) | Last Week: 4 (57-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 3 (75-percent) | Last Week: 3 (75-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 3 (9-percent) | Last Week: 0 |
What a week for Kelley, who established himself as a big part of this offense. We do need to caveat this with the unexpected QB change from Tyrod Taylor, who is happy to tuck and run himself, to Justin Herbert, who acquitted himself well in a last minute starting role but I’m sure would have been happy handing the ball off more. But a big jump in snap count, a big jump in carries and he continues to take the majority of the redzone work.
Is he taking the ‘Melvin Gordon role’? Maybe. Let’s see how he goes next week if Taylor is back under centre but in the meantime, I’d be happy putting him in my lineup knowing he has volume and touchdown potential. And no, it’s not a typo, the Chargers really did use their backs for exactly the same number of touches inside the red zone as week one.
| D’Andre Swift | ||
| Snaps | 20 (34-percent) | Last Week: 34 (44-percent of team total) |
| Carries | 5 (24-percent) | Last Week: 3 (10-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 1 (25-percent) | Last Week: 1 (20-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (33-percent) | Last Week: 1 (50-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 5 (33-percent) | Last Week: 5 |
So Kerryon Johnson is back from the dead. And that’s bad news for Swift, who ceded the early downs work and 38-percent of carries to Johnson to start the game. Swift got five total carries on the game but these were almost all in game-chasing mode. That’s the good news. Swift appears to be the pass-catcher in this backfield, and the back who will be in the game when they’re chasing points. Even better news, the way this Lions defense is playing, they’re going to be chasing points more often than not this season. Without an injury, it’s going to be a timeshare with Johnson and Peterson, but Swift does at least appear to be in line for a decent workload in negative gamescripts.
| JK Dobbins | ||
| Snaps | 20 (31-percent) | Last Week: 23 (39-percent of team total) |
| Carries | 9 (24-percent) | Last Week: 7 (23-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 0 | Last Week: 2 (29-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: 2 (50-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 1 (4-percent) | Last Week: 0 |
By the end of week one we were ready to declare Mark Ingram as done and JK Dobbins as the king. This is a lesson in not over-reacting to one game. But Dobbins got the goal-line looks and punched them both in for touchdowns in week one, surely that’s his role now? Not so much. He still got a similar portion of the snap count and of the carries, but nothing inside the red zone this week. This backfield is going to be a three-way timeshare (four if you include Lamar, which you should). Some weeks it will be Dobbins who scores the touchdowns, some it will be Ingram and some it will be Edwards. The rest will be Lamar sniping all of them. He still looks good and he caught his first target in the NFL, but not much to write home about. As you were.
Wide Receiver
- Henry Ruggs
- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Michael Pittman Jr
- Laviska Shenault
- Bryan Edwards
- Jalen Reagor
- Quintez Cephus
With a disappointing three targets, there wasn’t much going for Ruggs this week. He attempted to use his speed to burn downfield a couple of times but it’s safe to say that Darren Waller has continued where he left off from last year as Derek Carr’s favourite target (getting a huge 42-percent of Carr’s 38 targets). Ruggs will have his day but his role appears to be to create space for Waller and his ceiling is capped for now.
With Courtland Sutton managing to get himself out there in week two, Jeudy’s snap share was a little down. He still managed 18-percent of the target share but this was a much more distributed spread of the targets. With Sutton now out injured again and Lock likely to be missing for several weeks, we don’t yet know how this offense is going to look. What we do know is that Jeudy is a baller and he’ll get plenty of the ball now with Sutton gone.
Lamb has a clear role in this offence and is starting to build his rapport with Prescott. Nine targets for six catches and his first 100 yard game, he was inches away from his first Dallas touchdown. He played slightly fewer snaps than Cooper and Gallup but this team runs three wide receivers almost all of the time and he got 18-percent of the target share (up from 15-percent in week one) in a high-volume offence. Once again he displayed his YAC ability with almost 10 yards after catch per reception and looks like he could be a monster as the season develops.
After a slow week one and reports of being unlikely to play in week two, Pittman saw more snaps than all other skill players outside of Rivers, at a whopping 92-percent. His six targets was 24-percent of the target share, dominating for this team through the air in a game where the Colts drove the game on the ground. Remembering how Rivers liked to target Mike Williams downfield last season, Pittman’s role is an intriguing one to keep an eye one.
In week one, Laviska Shenault got a 62-percent snap share (3rd on the team for wide receivers) with his four targets being the second most on his team. In week two, he got 57-percent snap share (still 3rd on the team for wide receivers) and again got four targets. The problem this week is that Minshew more than doubled his passing volume, so the four targets only represented 9-percent of the market share, and he didn’t do too much with those targets. The good news for Shenault is his use in the backfield, with five carries being the second in carries behind Robinson. He’ll continue to be a versatile weapon but might be a touchdown-dependent play if his volume doesn’t increase.
It’s starting to look a little rough for Edwards. He only got two targets on Monday night but he did turn them in to 42 yards. He looked like a good, strong receiver that could be a useful target for Carr but unfortunately for him, Carr only has eyes for Darren Waller. In a game where the Raiders produced an upset win, they rotated their receivers, stretched the field and went to Waller again and again. Why would they change a working formula? I’m not excited about Edwards in the short term, unless things change significantly in week three.
Injury Issues
- Brandon Aiyuk (WR)
- KJ Hamler (WR)
- Denzel Mims (WR)
Aiyuk can now come off this list, having made his debut on Sunday night against the Jets. With a severely depleted team around him, he turned his three targets into two catches for 21 yards. He looked pretty good where he was used so will continue to get his share of this offense next week.
Similarly, KJ Hamler made his Broncos debut and, as with Aiyuk, injuries around him are going to increase his opportunity next week. Hamler got 7 targets on a 62-percent snap share which I expect to increase in week three while Sutton sits out. As with Jeudy, the impact of Drew Lock’s injury is one to watch, but a good sign for Hamler.
Mims is currently on IR so firmly planted in this category.
LONGER-TERM PLAY WITH EARLY QUESTION MARKS
- Justin Jefferson (WR)
- Tee Higgins (WR)
- Chase Claypool (WR)
- Van Jefferson (WR)
- AJ Dillon (RB)
- Lynn Bowden (RB)
- Quintez Cephus (WR)
- Gabriel Davis (WR)
We were looking to see if Justin Jefferson could beat out Bisi Johnson after his 69-percent snap share in week one, but he clearly dropped to third receiver in week two with a 54-percent snap share. He did get the same number of targets as Johnson (three) but was more efficient with them, catching all three for 44 yards.
Tee Higgins’ snap share took a huge jump in week two with only Tyler Boyd playing more wide receiver snaps than he did. He also got six targets including his use as a trusted weapon for Burrow in a couple of tough spots. His volume was likely boosted by Burrow throwing a ton and that won’t be the case every week. Very positive signs for him though and after a worrying week one, Higgins is starting to establish himself.
He’s the fourth wide receiver on the team right now but did you see that touchdown from Chase Claypool?! Outside of his 84 yard touchdown, he caught both of his targets for only four yards. Unless an injury occurs to one of the receivers ahead of him, he’s big play or bust for the time being.
When he’s on the field, Van Jefferson is a trusted target and got 19-percent of the target share in week two. However, he’s still the fourth wide receiver on a team that is also targeting the tight ends, so his opportunity to get on the field is somewhat restricted. Target share is encouraging so don’t panic on him, but I’d like to see him start to take more snaps off Reynolds and establish himself as that number three option.
AJ Dillon got seven snaps and five carries but they were all at the end of the game when the result was already done. The good news is that Tyler Ervin didn’t get carries ahead of him but this was very much a case of getting his feet wet when there was nothing on the line.
Lynn Bowden got four snaps and one target so was at least on the pitch in week two. He’s moving to the backup category.
With Kenny Golladay still absent, Quintez Cephus once again played as a starting receiver for the Detroit Lions. After a somewhat inefficient week one, Cephus’ playing time dropped from a 79-percent snap share to 66-percent, and his target share from 24-percent to 9-percent. He clearly didn’t impress enough in week one but in week two he at least hauled in all three of his targets for 54 yards. Stafford didn’t look for him in the end zone either so his role is likely to dwindle to a minor one as soon as Golladay is back.
Gabriel Davis showed some flashes in week one but his snap share dropped to 36-percent in week two. One target and one carry for Davis is not going to be sustainable so we’ll keep an eye on him over the next couple of weeks.
Potential Late Season Plays
- Tua Tagovailoa (QB)
- Justin Herbert (QB)
Well this was a surprise for everyone, including Justin Herbert himself. With a late call on a Tyrod Taylor injury, Justin Herbert got his first NFL start in week two against the Chiefs. Talk about getting thrown in to the deep end! And like I said for Burrow last week, the boy did good. He completed 22 of his 33 pass attempts for 311 yards and one touchdown, as well as punching one in himself.
Oh, and he’s great for Austin Ekeler’s value too! He went toe to toe with the best in the game and did not look lost (whilst also popping straight back up after a hit from a Chiefs linebacker which left the defender on his back), other than throwing an interception where he could have crawled for a first down instead. A few mistakes are understandable in his first game but he played well and surely put himself in the mix for the starting role for the rest of the season. Well, Anthony Lynn doesn’t seem to think so, announcing that Tyrod Taylor is still the starter…we’ll see what happens here.
Still nothing to see on Tua watch…
Backup – not this year without an injury
- Jordan Love (QB)
- Jalen Hurts (QB)
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB)
- Darrynton Evans (RB)
- La’Mical Perine (RB)
- Jacob Eason (QB)
- Anthony McFarland Jr (RB)
- James Morgan (QB)
- Gabriel Davis (WR)
- DeeJay Dallas (RB)
- Devin Duvernay (WR)
- Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR)
Devin Duvernay is still low in the pecking order with only six snaps and one target; and there’s still some work to do for Antonio Gandy-Golden who at least got on the field for a handful of snaps and a target in week two.
Jalen Hurts got on the field for three snaps but didn’t do anything with them; Vaughn got some special teams work in week two; and Perine got himself three carries. Other than that, nothing going for any of these guys at this stage and they sit firmly as backups until further notice.
Special Tight End Category
- Devin Asiasi
- Cole Kmet
- Josiah Deguara
- Dalton Keene
- Adam Trautman
- Harrison Bryant
- Albert Okwuegbunam
- Colby Parkinson
- Brycen Hopkins
Asiasi’s role continued from week one with a few snaps alongside Ryan Izzo as the starting TE, while Keene hasn’t yet seen the field with a neck injury.
Likewise, Kmet got a little game time and caught his solitary target in week two, as did Trautman in his limited snap share.
After getting himself a couple of targets in week one, Deguara sat out week two due to injury.
Despite Njoku heading to IR, Harrison Bryant’s playing time and targets stayed the same in week two. A little disappointing but the Brown’s relied heavily on the ground game here. We’ll see if his role increases in a more friendly game script in week three.
Injury continues to keep out Albert O and Colby Parkinson while Brycen Hopkins was once again a healthy scratch.
Week Three
As with everything this early in the season, some flip-flopping of roles has brought further intrigue to the situations surrounding some of these rookies. After a promising week one, some took a step back in week two, while others continued to cement themselves as solid starters.
I’m continuing to roll out Taylor and CEH with confidence, as well as Jeudy and Lamb at receiver, and Burrow at quarterback.
Outside of the top guys, not many options to think about starting in your fantasy teams at this stage but with all the injuries hitting at the minute, this can change in an instant. We’ll continue to track how they’re shaping up in their depth charts, how their snap shares are developing, how their touches and targets are changing and whether there’s any indications of an increasing role to buy into.
The two guys I’m watching closely for this week:
- Michael Pittman Jr – potential increase in role with Campbell injured
- Justin Herbert – please start him Anthony Lynn, we’re begging you
Don’t forget to check back next week to see how these rookie values are changing.
