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Justin Fields SZN: Week 3 Rookie Report — QBs & TEs

Jackson Grosskopf

Jackson Grosskopf
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Justin Fields QB1: Week 3 Rookie Report (QBs & TEs)

The rookie class seemed to come back down to earth in week 2 after strong performances in the opening week. Rookies starting this early in the season are expected to struggle, so don’t let a few ugly numbers get you down about their outlook this season. Not all rookies will find success, so breaking down their performances is imperative in predicting who will falter and who will breakout.

After receiving valuable feedback last week to switch things up and release articles by position, I am going to try just that. Considering there are only two tight ends that qualify, I have decided to lump them in with the quarterbacks.

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Note: Offensive snap share statistics are derived from footballoutsiders.com, and player statistics, including PFF grades, are pulled from PFF’s Premium Stats. Positional rankings for the week will be included, as will points scored, each from Fantasy Pros. The most recent game will be discussed in the Overview section, while the Outlook will give a glimpse of how to value the player moving forward.

QUARTERBACKS

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, Week 2: 8.8 fantasy points (QB27)
Week 2 Statistics: 14/33 (42.4%), 118 yards, 3.6 YPA, 1 TD, 2 Int, 12.6 aDoT, 2 rush, 21 yards
Week 2 PFF Grade: 40.1
Overview: I am about to say a lot of bad things about Trevor Lawrence but I want to preface with this: he faced (what I believe to be) the best defense in the NFL in week 2. The Broncos have the deepest, and arguably best secondary unit of any team in the league, and a monstrous pass rush duo to go along with it. It shouldn’t come as a surprise when quarterbacks struggle against the Broncos’ blitz, but Lawerence going 1-for-9 with 24 yards (2.7 YPA) and two interceptions versus the blitz is more than “struggling.”

Trevor Lawrence was highly touted for his deep ball placement coming out of Clemson, but through the first two weeks of 2021, Lawrence has not done well throwing deep. Lawrence’s second interception of the game came in an attempt to overcorrect back-to-back deep shot overthrows. The following deep look, he short-armed just enough to land squarely in the arms of Patrick Surtain II. In his second professional appearance, Lawrence went 2-for-8 with 49 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions when throwing 20-plus yards downfield.

His opening possession was the lone bright spot on the day, capping off an 11-play, 83-yard drive with a gorgeous 25-yard touchdown pass to Marvin Jones in one-on-one coverage to the outside. On that scoring drive, Lawrence went 5-for-7 for 73 yards and a touchdown, converting three third downs (a fourth if you count an illegal contact penalty that awarded a first down). The Jaguars twitter account posted this following the score:

Following this tweet, Lawrence proceeded to finish the game 9-for-26 with 45 yards, two interceptions, and one more third down conversion.

Outlook: The Jaguars coaching staff needs play calling creativity. It’s hard for me to believe Urban Meyer was staying up ’til 3am over the summer drawing up a mere four passes under center for Lawrence in week 2. After the opening possession score, Vic Fangio quickly figured out the Jags shotgun-heavy scheme and put the clamps on them. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell threw in more play action this week (roughly a 10 percent increase from week 1), but failed to do so in a way that helped his young quarterback. Play action is supposed to open things up downfield, but Lawrence’s average depth of target with play action was 7.8, compared to 14.5 without. Puzzling to say the least.

Trevor Lawrence will see the Cardinals in week 3. If they want any chance to compete, Bevell and Meyer need to get Lawrence going. Lawrence faced two polar opposite defenses thus far: top-five in the Broncos, and bottom-five in the Texans. The Cardinals defense should give us a better vantage point on what to make of Lawrence moving forward. Hold steady for now, as he will continue to see a floor of 30 attempts per game, but don’t push your luck starting him unless you’re desperate.

Zach Wilson, New York Jets, Week 2: 6.3 fantasy points (QB33)
Week 2 Statistics: 19/33 (57.6%), 210 yards, 6.4 YPA, 0 TD, 4 Int, 9.0 aDoT, 3 rush, 19 yards
Week 2 PFF Grade: 54.4
Overview: Surely this is not the prospect the Jets front office saw when inking Zach Wilson in as the second overall pick. To the same tune, Jets offensive coordinator Mike LeFleur may not be the disciple he was expected to be either. The two have yet to find success in their early relationship; the key word being ‘early.’ They’ve got time to develop, but after consuming last week’s performance, they may have more problems than they have time for.

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Wilson continued to be inefficient with play action in week 2. With play action, Wilson went 6-for-12 with 48 yards (3.8 YPA) and three interceptions. Compare that to 13-for-21 with 164 yards (7.8 YPA) and one interception without play action, and it’s safe to say Wilson is having a difficult time scanning the field after turning his back to fake the run.

One of the most difficult aspects of Zach Wilson’s matchup against the Patriots was dealing with pressure. The Jets allowed the second most pressures in the league in week 2, with 19 pressures on 39 drop backs – nearly a 50-percent pressure rate. Part of the increased pressures has to do with Wilson looking to extend plays and rolling out of the pocket, supported by an increased time to throw (TTT) from 2.88 in a clean pocket to 3.72 when pressured. The Jets will live and die with this component of Zach Wilson’s game, but they’ll need to develop him into a better passer before they rely on him as a play maker: Wilson went 0-for-5 on intermediate throws 10-19 yards downfield against the Patriots. These are the passes that separate the potential talents from the stars in the NFL.

Outlook: Zach Wilson was Bill Belichick’s best player in week 2. The BYU product was handing out picks as if he was allergic to his team possessing the ball. He plays the Broncos top tier defense in week 3 (see Trevor Lawrence), which could get ugly if LeFleur doesn’t scheme up ways to make life easier for Wilson. Don’t play Zach Wilson this week unless you’re in one of those inverted Worst Ball leagues.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots, Week 2: 7.4 fantasy points (QB30)
Week 2 Statistics: 22/30 (73.3%), 186 yards, 6.2 YPA, 0 TD, 0 Int, 4.6 aDoT, 1 fumble
Week 2 PFF Grade: 58.5
Overview: If you thought last week’s average depth of target (aDoT) was low, get a load of this week’s. Mac Jones’ week 2 mark was the second lowest in the league, taking even more underneath passes than last week against the Dolphins. I expected Belichick to loosen the reigns for Mac Jones against a weak Jets secondary, but that was not the case. Mac Jones had just six passes travel 10 yards or further downfield in week 2, going 3-for-6 on those attempts. Just as we saw last week, Jones was throwing short and getting rid of the ball quickly, registering a 2.66 average time to throw (TTT).

Jones’ time to throw in week 2 saw a bump from 2.39 in week 1 due to the offensive front cutting the quarterback pressures in half. The Jets blitzed on five of Jones’ 30 attempts, sitting back in cover 3, stacking the box against the run, and not allowing deep passes over the top. Mac Jones dissected them.

Jones was uber efficient in week 2 with play action, a positive sign that he is processing defensive looks quickly and making smart decisions. On 10 play action attempts in week 2, Mac Jones completed nine for 78 yards (7.8 YPA), including my favorite throw of his on the day: a 32-yard strike up the seam to Hunter Henry. I am in awe of how quickly Jones whips his head around, reads Bryce Hall (defensive back no.37) playing the flat, and drives his back foot to deliver a nice ball to Henry on the fly.

Outlook: The Patriots will host the Saints in week 3, who currently own the fifth-best adjusted DVOA, per Football Outsiders. This metric is used as a ranking system for teams (offense and defense) with a weighted component for value of opponent. To sum: Mac Jones should have his hands full in week 3. Until Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick incorporate more deep passing into their offense, Mac Jones will stay in the low-end QB2 range, with much more dynasty upside.

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, Week 2: 4.5 fantasy points (QB34)
Week 2 Statistics: 6/13 (46.2%), 60 yards, 4.6 YPA, 0 TD, 1 Int, 11.6 aDoT, 10 rush, 31 yards, 1 fumble
Week 2 PFF Grade: 51.6
Overview: We were inches away this past Sunday from an entirely different narrative surrounding Justin Fields. Thrusted into action by way of an Andy Dalton injury, Justin Fields stepped in and immediately made the Bears offense more aggressive and less predictable.

Fields has some electric plays on the ground and in the air, using his legs to pick up the bulk of his fantasy points on the day, including a clutch scramble rush for a first down to ice the game. He should be a hot commodity on waivers and in free agency this week, as Fields was a few details away from the breakout of the century. The timing of small factors will come with repetition as the season goes on.

The defensive game plan for the Bengals with Fields at the helm was to blitz and make him uncomfortable looking downfield. With Dalton, it was the opposite: sit back and force him to throw it short. Fields was blitzed on nine of his 19 drop backs, while Dalton saw two blitzes on 14 drop backs.

Outlook: Fields had a bad pick-six in the fourth quarter to bring the Bengals within three points in crunch time. He got fooled on a cover zero look and threw right into the arms of the lone linebacker retreating in zone coverage while all defensive backs were manned up. Fields’ Konami Code run ability will push him into starting fantasy quarterback territory. If he starts, he’s a QB2 with QB1 upside at Cleveland in week 3.

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Davis Mills, Houston Texans, Week 2: 6.9 fantasy points (QB31)
Week 2 Statistics: 8/18 (44.4%), 102 yards, 5.7 YPA, 1 TD, 1 Int, 11.4 aDoT, 2 rush, -1 yard, 1 fumble
Week 2 PFF Grade: 32.7
Overview: Davis Mills is a 2021 third round pick, selected as the eighth quarterback in his class. In March, had him ranked ninth best signal caller, projecting that some team would reach for him in the third round out of sheer panic. He lacks awareness, deep ball prowess, and pocket mobility. The awareness was on full display on the one and only blitz the Browns dialed up against Mills. Blame bad coaching all you want (which I will not argue), but a total of zero Texans players saw safety Grant Delpit blitz from the box, and Mills got rocked.

Davis Mills strength coming out of Stanford was the quick passing game, but in his debut he was BAD. On throws 0-9 yards downfield, Mills earned an adjusted completion percentage of of 37.5, on 2.1 yards per attempt (YPA).

Speaking of adjusted completion percentages, Mills’ 47.1 mark on the day was the worst in the league (minimum six attempts). That day includes going 0-for-3 on play action looks, registering the worst PFF grade among all quarterbacks (minimum six attempts), and owning the third-worst turnover worthy play rate, per PFF.

The only good news for the fantasy outlook is that Mills will be in a passing situation for most of the games he plays in.

Outlook: Davis Mills is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL at the moment, and Houston isn’t exactly the place that will help him turn that around. Don’t roster him in any format.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons, Week 2: 12.3 PPR fantasy points (TE8)
Week 2 Statistics: 79% snap share, 5 targets, 5 receptions, 73 yards, 7.8 aDoT, 1.83 Y/RR
Week 2 PFF Grade: 68.4
Overview: After finishing as the PPR TE23 last week, Kyle Pitts took a promising step forward at Tampa Bay in week 2. Pitts’ usage should be of no concern to fantasy managers. At the half, Pitts led the Falcons in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. Pitts ran a route on 91-percent of snaps he took, only this week, increasing his snap total from the inline position from eight in week 1 to 15 in week 2. His snaps lined up out wide and in the slot were about the exact same, so we can consider week 1 Pitts’ floor.

The Falcons are a different offense with Pitts on the field, even if he isn’t getting targets. The sheer gravity he possesses opens up things for the offense around him, and allows him to find mismatches as a no.2 target in a pass-heavy attack.

Pitts had his first opportunity of the season to show off his YAC ability, and he took full advantage of it. Pitts collected 34 yards after the catch on Sunday, spearheaded by this highlight catch and run.

Outlook: Kyle Pitts isn’t seeing many deep looks (zero in week 2), which is likely attributed to faulty offensive line play and no semblance of a running game. Pitts is the only rookie drafted in the top 15 without a touchdown. That could change this weekend as the Falcons travel to New York to meet the Giants, who currently rank 28th in TE fantasy points allowed through the first two weeks. A safe TE1.

 

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers, Week 2: 7.6 PPR fantasy points (TE18)
Week 2 Statistics: 59% snap share, 4 targets, 4 receptions, 36 yards, 5.3 aDoT, 1.57 Y/RR
Week 2 PFF Grade: 70.4
Overview: Pat Freiermuth’s usage in the passing game increased mightily from week 1 to week 2. He logged consecutive weeks of 90-plus-percent routes run on pass snaps, lining up in the slot for one third of his routes in week 2, compared to just once in the opener. Freiermuth didn’t see his target until the second half when the Steelers were trailing by two. He hauled in each of his four targets at crucial points in the game, including two third down targets and a contested catch in double coverage.

Outlook: Freiermuth looks to be manning the middle of the field, exclusively on short and intermediate routes. The Steelers have enough playmakers to stretch the defense, so Freiermuth will continue to be the underneath/safety net for Big Ben when attacking zone. Freiermuth has yet to see a red zone target. If Diontae Johnson misses time, Freiermuth’s usage will increase even more. Eric Ebron’s presence will limit the rookie’s upside. He’s a fringe TE2 in week 3, until he completely overtakes Ebron in the pass game.

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Jackson Grosskopf

Jackson Grosskopf
Fantasy football has been a major part of my life ever since starting up my storied home league 10 years ago. While most experienced with redraft, I have also have confidence discussing dynasty and betting. I graduated from TCU in 2018, double majoring in kinesiology and business while working with the athletic department’s strength & conditioning team. I currently reside in my hometown of San Antonio, Texas, working as a Heath & Wellness Director for two gyms by day, and an aspiring fantasy writer and analyst by night. I am excited to begin my journey with Yards Per Fantasy!

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