Juju Smith-Schuster Will Be An Elite Fantasy WR In 2020
After two impressive seasons to start his career, Juju Smith-Schuster was a consensus top-three dynasty wide receiver—even holding the top spot on many analysts’ rankings. He was the talk of the town. Everyone loved Juju. But we’re ready to just write him off because he had one down year that was riddled with injuries to himself and his quarterback? No thanks.
Entering 2019, Smith-Schuster finally held the WR1 spot in Pittsburgh with Antonio Brown shipped out of town. The hype was high for the young stud who was still only 22 years old. But like I said, a rash of injuries and the loss of Ben Roethlisberger early in the year led to a disappointing campaign. After averaging more than 16 fantasy points per game over his first two seasons, Smith-Schuster was WR60 on a per-game basis in 2019 with 9.4.
Falling so short of expectations dropped him in most people’s rankings and caused many to wonder what it means. Some attribute his step backwards to the loss of Brown, arguing Juju doesn’t have the means to be the alpha in the Steelers offense. But let’s not forget, in three games without Brown in 2017-2018, Juju averaged 21.2 fantasy points per game with 20 receptions and three touchdowns. The real issue was the loss of Roethlisberger and Juju’s own battle with a knee sprain, toe sprain, and concussion—which landed him on a combined eight final injury reports and forced him to miss four games.
So why is it so easy to just write off 2019 as a lost season and not a red flag? Because Juju was so good at such a young age. And production at a young age is one of the best indicators of future success. He accumulated 2,867 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns before his 23rd birthday. He was top-five among wide receivers in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in his age 21-22 season. As a rookie, Smith-Schuster dominated with prolific efficiency. Out of rookie wide receivers with at least 800 receiving yards, JuJu has the second-highest yards per target of all-time behind just A.J. Brown
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Prior to that, he held a 31.9-percent (56th-percentile) Dominator at USC with an 18.8 (94th-percentile) breakout age. JuJu’s second year saw his remarkable efficiency meet volume. His 166 targets finished behind just Julio Jones, Davante Adams, and Antonio Brown. He was top-five in receptions with 111, first in yards after the catch, and ninth in fantasy points per game.
Since 1990, only Odell Beckham, Randy Moss, Josh Gordon, Torry Holt, A.J. Green, and Michael Thomas had more receiving yards in their first two seasons. And only Moss and Gordon had more receiving yards prior to turning 22 years old.
That’s it. Juju is so good. He’s special. He’s elite.
At 6-1, 215-pounds, Smith-Schuster has the size and athleticism to be the alpha in the Pittsburgh offense. He will be 23 to start the season while both Twitter-darling Diontae Johnson and James Washington, who both came into the league after Juju, are already 24 years old.
See Where Juju Smith-Schuster Lands In Our 2020 Fantasy Draft Rankings!
Circumstances set him up for failure in year three. In 2019, the Steelers averaged 186 passing yards per game and threw just 18 total touchdowns. Of course that was with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges at quarterback who were off-target 23.3-percent of the time when targeting Smitb-Schuster. How can we blame Juju for not playing up to elite standards with that? Especially considering his own injury issues. In comparison, from 2016-2018, Roethlisberger averaged 293 passing yards per game and 32.4 passing touchdowns per season. And on passes intended for Smith-Schuster in 2018, only 8.6-percent were off the mark.
With both Roethlisberger and Smith-Schuster back to full health, there’s no reason to think we don’t get back the high efficiency Juju we saw the two years prior. I fully expect he will pick right back up where he left off in 2018. Which makes him a great value with fourth round ADP.
