Jonathan Taylor SZN: Week 2 Rookie Stock Update
Week 1 is in the books and that was a wild ride! For some of the rookies, it was their first chance to show what they could do an NFL field and some of them grabbed that chance with both hands and ran with it (literally…). We saw guys like Jonathan Taylor, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Joshua Kelley perform well enough to warrant Week 2 lineup considerations.
As noted in my introduction to this series, each week I’m going to do a stock take on the rookies, review how they’re progressing and speculate on their outlook for the rest of the season. I’ll start with the categories I identified in the previous week and note which players are moving up or down between those categories. Here is the Week 2 rookie stock update.
Starters
Quarterback
- Joe Burrow
There was never a question as to when Burrow was going to take his first snap, leading the Bengals from the start. And the boy did good with a 64-percent completion rate on 36 pass attempts for 193 yards giving him a solid foundation. But it was the addition of 8 rushes for 46 yards, including a 23 yard touchdown run, which gave Bengals fans everywhere an immediate look at the exciting times that lay ahead.
He was pressured 9 times, sacked 3 times and threw an interception. But that didn’t deter him from marching the team down the field for a game-winning TD that was called back on a dubious pass-interference call, followed by a probable game-tying field goal that the kicker somehow missed. Good times ahead for Burrow and the Bengals.
Running Back
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Jonathan Taylor
- Cam Akers
- Antonio Gibson
- Zack Moss
- Joshua Kelley
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | ||
| Snaps | 46 (67-percent) | Kareem Hunt only saw more than 46 snaps five times in his rookie year |
| Carries | 25 | 74-percent of team total |
| Redzone carries | 9 | 100-percent of team total |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 7 | 100-percent of team total |
| Targets | 2 | At least one of which was a complete throw-away from Mahomes |
As expected, CEH saw a significant role from the start. I suggested last week that Darrel Williams might get the first carry or backfield target but this was CEH from the start. In fact, the first two offensive plays for the Chiefs were CEH carries, and after some early struggles to move the ball he showed us what we wanted to see, including 100-percent of the team’s carries inside the red zone. Now, Williams did get the two-minute drill at the end of the first half, and CEH wasn’t targeted but I can’t imagine that being the case for long.
| Jonathan Taylor | ||
| Snaps | 26 (35-percent) | Significantly increased when Mack went down injured |
| Carries | 9 | 41-percent of team total |
| Redzone carries | 2 | 33-percent of team total |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 | 33-percent of team total |
| Targets | 6 | Increased role after the Mack injury |
We were all excited about Taylor and were confident that he could overtake Mack quickly but it took Mack to suffer a season-ending injury for it to happen so quickly. From that point on, Jonathan Taylor saw his role in the offense increased dramatically and he played with the burst and excitement that we wanted to see ahead of Week 2.
Marlon Mack Injury Leads To A Massive Jonathan Taylor Value Spike Ahead Of Week 2: Read It!
The concern would be the heavy usage of Nyheim Hines who also got the red zone touchdown. With Mack’s injury parting the red sea like Damien Williams’ opt-out did for CEH, Taylor is going to be the man going forward. Put Jonathan Taylor in your Week 2 lineups, leave him there, and win some leagues.
See Where Jonathan Taylor Lands In Our Week 2 Rankings!
| Cam Akers | ||
| Snaps | 24 (33-percent) | Malcolm Brown saw 60-percent of offensive snaps |
| Carries | 14 | 35-percent of team total |
| Redzone carries | 1 | 14-percent of team total |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 | 25-percent of team total but Brown got both carries inside the 5 |
| Targets | 1 | Brown got 3 |
As expected, Malcolm Brown led the backfield in touches and got the goal-line looks. Akers got a solid chance to establish himself and show what he can do but he struggled to put up yards and Brown was visibly more explosive when he was on the field. It was only his first game and I don’t think he’s damaged his stock at all, but with Henderson coming back from an injury, Akers could take a while longer to get a significant portion of the Rams running back workload.
| Antonio Gibson | ||
| Snaps | 18 (26-percent) | McKissic 44-percent; Barber 41-percent |
| Carries | 9 | 25-percent of team total |
| Redzone carries | 1 | 6-percent of team total |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 | 10-percent of team total which was inside the 5 but Barber got nearly all the red zone looks |
| Targets | 2 | McKissic got 5 |
A disappointing start for a player who many expected to shoot out of the blocks. Instead, Gibson hardly got on to the field and although he got one goal-line look, Peyton Barber was the guy in the red zone for the Washington Football Team. To pour salt in to the wound, JD McKissic got more targets than Gibson. The hype may have been a little overblown for Gibson but it was only week one so we’ll keep a close eye on how he develops in the next week or two.
| Zack Moss | ||
| Snaps | 39 (45-percent) | Singletary saw 59-percent of offensive snaps |
| Carries | 9 | 28-percent of team total |
| Redzone carries | 7 | 70-percent of team total |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 4 | 80-percent of team total and got 3 of 4 inside the 5 |
| Targets | 4 | Singletary got 7 |
A very positive start for Moss, getting the same number of carries as Singletary but critically getting the goal-line looks. Josh Allen led the team in carries in this game, which could limit Moss’ upside if it continues, but he clearly established himself as the back in the red zone, including the targets down there that led to his touchdown.
| Joshua Kelley | ||
| Snaps | 18 (24-percent) | More than Justin Jackson |
| Carries | 12 | 31-percent of team total |
| Redzone carries | 4 | 57-percent of team total |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 3 | 75-percent of team total and the only attempt inside the 5 |
| Targets | 0 | Ekeler got the only RB target |
Another positive start, with Kelley establishing himself in the red zone and getting the team’s lone rushing touchdown. Ekeler is going to take the lions share of carries in this backfield but that’s not news. What is news is that Kelley showed what he can do and that he can be dependable in the red zone. Look for this to continue in week two, but keep an eye on whether Justin Jackson starts to eat in to the workload.
Wide Receiver
- Henry Ruggs
- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Michael Pittman Jr
- Laviska Shenault
- Bryan Edwards
Ruggs had a great start with five first-half targets before injury curtailed his day. On 18 first-half pass attempts, that’s a very healthy market share and exactly the start we were looking for. Hopefully the injury isn’t anything to be concerned about and we see him back out there in week two.
We expected Jeudy to get his fair share of playing time and targets but with Courtland Sutton unable to suit up on Monday night, Jeudy got thrown straight in to the deep end. Playing 75-percent of offensive snaps, Jeudy led the team in targets with eight, a market share of 24-percent. Jeudy showed some burst and that route-running expertise we’ve heard so much about but only managed to catch half of his targets before turning them in to 56 yards. Jeudy is a locked and loaded starter in Denver.
With so many pass-catching options in Dallas, Lamb’s playing time and target share were ones to watch in his debut. He turned 82-percent of offensive snaps in to six targets, a market share of 15-percent and one more target than Michael Gallup. At nearly 12 yards per reception and over 80-percent catch rate, Lamb bolstered his reputation as a YAC (Yards After Catch) monster with almost half of his yards coming after the catch. With Jarwin out for the season, this could open up even more targets for Lamb and boost his fantasy stock even further.
A slow start for Pittman, only seeing 53-percent of offensive snaps in addition to some special teams duties. He was out-snapped and out-targeted by Zach Pascal who appeared to be the number three receiver to start the year. Keep an eye on how Pittman develops but he could find himself dropping down in to the ‘longer term play’ category if he doesn’t get more opportunity next week.
Now Laviska Shenault didn’t waste his opportunity in week one. He got a 62-percent snap share (3rd on the team for wide receivers) and the second most targets (four). He turned those targets in to 37 yards and a 15 yard touchdown. Add in a couple of rush attempts in a less than stellar backfield and you can see how Shenault is going to provide some exciting performances this season.
Not the start we expected from Edwards, only getting one target in a game where Carr threw the ball 30 times. There was an expectation that Edwards would be the main outside receiver but even with Ruggs suffering an injury, it wasn’t to be. However, he did play more snaps than any other wide receiver (75-percent) so lets not panic just yet. He’s on the field, so he will get targets, lets stick with him for now.
Injury Issues
- D’Andre Swift (RB)
- Jalen Reagor (WR)
- Brandon Aiyuk (WR)
- KJ Hamler (WR)
- Denzel Mims (WR)
Despite a limited training camp, Swift did manage to get on the field and led the running backs in snaps (44-percent). He only got three carries to Adrian Peterson’s 14 but did get the one goal-line carry which he punched in for the first touchdown of his professional career. Add to that the five targets he received and there’s positive signs for Swift. I’m moving him in to the starter category as long as Matt Patricia doesn’t feel like punishing him for that game-winning drop!
I was surprised to see Reagor get out on the field as much as he did following the training camp shoulder injury, but he led the wide receiver rotation with a 59-percent snap share. He got four targets of which he hauled in one huge play for 55 yards, but didn’t do much else in a game where Wentz struggled with a leaky O-line and a nasty Washington defense. Reagor will jump in to my starter category from here on.
Aiyuk, Hamler and Mims didn’t make it for week one so expect these guys to stay here for now.
LONGER-TERM PLAY WITH EARLY QUESTION MARKS
- Justin Jefferson (WR)
- Tee Higgins (WR)
- Chase Claypool (WR)
- JK Dobbins (RB)
- Van Jefferson (WR)
- AJ Dillon (RB)
- Lynn Bowden (RB)
- Devin Duvernay (WR)
- Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR)
Justin Jefferson actually saw the field more than Bisi Johnson, with a 69-percent snap share out of the gates. But with such a low passing volume from the Viking in this game, it was going to be difficult for him to see more than the three targets he got. I’m keeping a close eye on his role in week two to see if he can squeeze Johnson out.
With AJ Green a full go, Tee Higgins saw the field on only 22-percent of snaps and didn’t see a single target. Nothing to see here without an injury it seems. If his role doesn’t develop in the next couple of weeks, he drops to the backup category.
Chase Claypool appears to have a role in this Steelers offense and Big Ben seemed to connect well with him when he was used. He only played on 30-percent of snaps but he hauled in both of his targets including a 28 yard reception, and added an 8-yard rush attempt to close out the game on 4th down. He still could be a longer term play but showed some flashes here.
Now JK Dobbins is moving up in to the starter category. We knew he had long-term appeal but he took hold of his opportunity straight away, leading the running backs in snaps (39-percent) and out-carrying all but Mark Ingram. Critically, when they got down inside the five yard line, Dobbins got both opportunities and converted them both for touchdowns.
He didn’t out-snap Josh Reynolds as the third wide receiver option but Van Jefferson did out-target him with three targets. The Rams looked to get the job done on the ground in week one so Jefferson will have better opportunities, but his one catch for 31 yards showed what he can offer in this offense. I’m leaving him here for at least one more week but looking for him to make a leap and establish himself as a starter.
Not much to see for AJ Dillon with just five snaps and two carries. He seemed to be 4th on the running back depth chart in week one, behind Tyler Ervin, so we’ll see what happens and whether he can start to build up his playing time in less of a shootout.
Lynn Bowden wasn’t even named in the line up for week one after his trade to Miami. We’ll see whether he gets some playing time moving forward or he goes in to the backup category.
Devin Duvernay was well down the pecking order with a 19-percent snap share but he did haul in his solitary target; and there’s some work to do for Antonio Gandy-Golden who didn’t see the field in week one and will now find his way in to the backup category.
Potential Late Season Plays
- Tua Tagovailoa (QB)
- Justin Herbert (QB)
No sign of either of them, as expected, but both starters ahead of them had less than stellar opening weeks. If they don’t improve, and quickly, both Tua and Herbert could be on the field sooner than expected.
Backup – not this year without an injury
- Jordan Love (QB)
- Jalen Hurts (QB)
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB)
- Darrynton Evans (RB)
- La’Mical Perine (RB)
- Jacob Eason (QB)
- Anthony McFarland Jr (RB)
- James Morgan (QB)
- Gabriel Davis (WR)
- DeeJay Dallas (RB)
Gabriel Davis got a 49-percent snap share in week one and a couple of targets to boot. I’m moving up in to the limited starter category.
Other than that, nothing going for any of these guys at this stage and they sit firmly as backups until further notice.
Special Tight End Category
- Devin Asiasi
- Cole Kmet
- Josiah Deguara
- Dalton Keene
- Adam Trautman
- Harrison Bryant
- Albert Okwuegbunam
- Colby Parkinson
- Brycen Hopkins
Asiasi got a few snaps but it was Ryan Izzo as the starting TE in a low passing game for the Patriots, where Keene didn’t see the field.
Kmet got some game time but just the one target, while Trautman saw even less time and didn’t get any targets at all.
Deguara finds himself in a crowded TE room that don’t really see much action, although he did get a couple of targets from Rodgers.
Harrison Bryant got a healthy snap share and with Njoku heading to IR in the short term, this TE friendly offense should result in some increased playing time for Bryant. Don’t be surprised to see his targets go up and the odd touchdown here or there.
Injury kept out Albert O and Colby Parkinson while Brycen Hopkins was not selected for the Rams. There’s talk of an Everett injury which could open up some opportunity here.
Notable Additions
Quintez Cephus – Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions
He was selected in the 5th round of the 2020 draft so didn’t make it on to the original list. But with some early buzz and an injury to Kenny Golladay, Cephus got a week one opportunity which he grabbed with both hands.
With 79-percent playing time, he out-snapped all of the receiving weapons other than Marvin Jones. He was the number one target for Stafford, getting 10 targets (24-percent market share). Unfortunately for Cephus, he only caught three of those targets and converted them in to 43 yards. He did get a couple of red zone targets but wasn’t able to convert either for a touchdown.
If Golladay misses any more time, Cephus is a starter. But with Golladay back, I expect his playing time and targets to be limited. I’m going to put him in the limited starter category for now until we see how Golladay’s injury is looking.
Week Two
Some very interesting developments to keep an eye on in week two and I expect a couple of the rookies to firmly plant themselves at one end of the scale or the other. We’ll track how they’re continuing to shape up in their depth charts, how their snap shares are developing, how their touches and targets are changing and whether there’s any indications of an increasing role to buy into.
Don’t forget to check back next week to see how these rookie values changed.
