Why Joe Burrow Will Come Back Strong In 2021
While I still have your attention (which I know isn’t for very long because no one wants to read another fantasy football blog), I have a take I’ve been meaning to get off my chest:
It turns out the first football player drafted in the professional football draft last year is, in fact, good at football.
That’s a scorching take, I know, but allow me to explain.
Let the Big Dog Eat: Burrow Airs it Out
Before last season ended with a gruesome knee injury in Week 11 that left Joe Burrow’s ACL (and MCL) in worse shape than Jason Whitlock, the rookie signal-caller was putting together quite the campaign. Second-year head coach Zac Taylor had Burrow orchestrating one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses right out of the gate. After attempting 36 passes in his NFL debut (albeit in a losing effort to the Chargers), Burrow lit it up in Week 2, throwing for 316 yards and 3 TDs on a whopping 61(!) attempts.
Joe Burrow is the first rookie since 1950 with 60+ pass attempts and zero interceptions in a game
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) September 18, 2020
This ended up being a sign of things to come, as Burrow and the pass-happy Bengals offense averaged over 40 pass plays per game while the 23-year-old was under center. Taylor relied heavily on Burrow’s arm, and the young franchise cornerstone was able to utilize his impressive arsenal of weapons and quietly solidified himself as a legit weekly fantasy starting option.
Burrow’s Weapons
While he may be maddening when it comes to fantasy (you can read more about that here), there is little doubt that Joe Mixon is a very good real-life football player. When he is on the field, Mixon is one of the more versatile and dynamic backs in the NFL, and he can contribute on offense in a number of ways. Mixon’s ability as a pass-catcher (his 26 targets through just six games was on pace to shatter his career-high) provides Burrow with a capable safety net to find when he is under pressure. While health is a legit concern, a healthy Mixon is among the most talented backs in the league and is capable of establishing a run game that should only create more opportunity for Burrow and the offense.
In addition to Mixon, Cincinnati boasts one of the most underrated wide receiver duos in the league in Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. The 26-year-old Boyd turned another fine campaign (79/841/4 on 110 targets), while the uber-talented rookie Higgins (67/908/6 on 108 targets) appeared much further along in his development than anticipated and at times looked like the best player on the football field.
See Where Joe Burrow Lands In Our 2021 Dynasty Rankings!
Over the past few years, Boyd has established one of the highest receiving floors in fantasy (he has seen 366 combined targets over the past three seasons) and provides Burrow with an experienced and dependable option in the passing game. It is Higgins, however, who just might be a superstar in the making.
Coming out of Clemson, we knew Higgins was a game-breaker that could singlehandedly take over stretches of games, but his raw skill set labeled him as a “project” to some NFL scouts that needed some time to develop. The 6’4” Higgins appeared to be much further along in is development than many anticipated, and immediately showed a strong rapport with Burrow that could soon evolve into one of the NFL’s best duos. The rookie commanded a steady 20.2% target rate in 2020 (dragged down by the six games without Burrow) and enjoyed a nearly 30% air yards share in addition to a mouth-watering 8.3% touchdown rate. If Higgins and Burrow can build off their already impressive chemistry with one another, the young studs could solidify themselves as one of the best stacks in fantasy, and a phenomenal best ball stack.
While the Bengals could absolutely select the athletic freak TE Kyle Pitts with the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft, it is widely expected that the Bengals take the best available offensive lineman and provide Burrow with the protection he very much did not have last season. Protecting Burrow is without a doubt the top priority for the Bengals this offseason.
The Encore: What to Expect in Year Two
Assuming everything stays on track with his rehab, Burrow is expected to enter the 2021 season fully healthy and a year wiser to the NFL game. With a season of experience under his belt, a better handle of the offense, and (hopefully) some more protection up front, Burrow and the entire Bengals offense could bhe in line for a big step forward in 2021. If he retains the high-volume floor he displayed last season, is not out of the question for Burrow to end the year in the high-end QB1 conversation. He will have one of the league’s most talented arsenals of weapons around him, and should continue to operate in one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses. Burrow is going to be a tremendous value in best ball drafts this season, and his dynasty value will only go up as the season approaches.
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