It’s Tight End Time: Week 8 Rookie Stock Update
It was National Tight End Day according to George Kittle and what better way to celebrate it then to have some of our previously-anonymous rookie tight ends finally show us what they have.
Harrison Bryant was the flag-bearer with his two touchdown performance but he was nicely backed up by Albert Okwuegbunam showing he can handle a ball better than you can handle the pronunciation of his name.
It’s a bit of a different look this week but as always, I’m going to look at how the opportunities are developing for the rookies and speculate on their outlook for the rest of the season.
Here is the Week 8 rookie stock update.
Starters
Quarterback
- Joe Burrow
- Justin Herbert
- Tua Tagovailoa (BYE)
Joe Burrow
- 406 – his highest passing yardage of his NFL career so far
- 74-percent – his highest completion rate to boot
- Rushing floor – his rushing has been down recently but he bounced back with 34 yards and a touchdown after four games in a row with less than 12 yards
- Cleveland – he loves playing the Browns already, now putting up 7 total touchdowns and 775 total yards in the two games
Outlook: He continues to be a solid low-end QB1/high-end QB2 with week-winning upside
Justin Herbert
- 4,934 – that’s the 16 game yardage pace that Herbert has put up as a starter so far. That’s a pace that has only been topped by 8 Quarterback since 2010. You might have heard of some of these guys – Brees, Brady, Stafford, Manning, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Mahomes and Winston (one of these is not like the others…Jameis…)
- 45 – that’s his 16 game total Touchdown pace, and that’s only been beaten by three of those Quarterbacks – Brees, Manning and Mahomes. It’s good company he’s keeping right now
- QB14, QB20, QB9, QB4, QB1 – Herbert’s weekly fantasy finishes in his five games so far
Outlook: Load him up, put him in your QB1 slot and leave him there until further notice. This guy has proven he can sling it with the best of them and should be a guaranteed starter in every league
Running Back
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Jonathan Taylor (BYE)
- Antonio Gibson
- Joshua Kelley
- D’Andre Swift
- JK Dobbins (BYE)
- James Robinson
- Cam Akers
- Zack Moss
- La’Mical Perine
Week 7 One-to-Watch: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | ||
| Snaps | 27 (53-percent) | Last Week: 49 (67-percent) |
| Carries | 8 (36-percent) | Last Week: 26 (57-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 3 (50-percent) | Last week: 3 (38-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (25-percent) | Last week: 1 (100-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 4 (16-percent) | Last week: 4 (15-percent of team total) |
- 20-percent of the snaps were taken by the backups at the end of the game when the starters were pulled. So CEH’s stats up to that point (66-percent snaps; 57-percent of carries; 17-percent of targets; 100-percent of redzone carries)
- Le’veon Bell – CEH was still the dominant back but 67-percent of the running back opportunities (carries plus targets) is his lowest of the season so Bell definitely had an impact
- 1 – this can stand for the first redzone rushing touchdown of CEH’s NFL career or it could also stand for the number of games he’s played with Bell and a reminder to not try too hard to draw huge conclusions from one game
Outlook: It’s hard to take too much info from such a strange game but CEH is still the lead back for KC. You aren’t going to get fair value for him in a trade right now so hold tight. He’s a high end RB2
| Antonio Gibson | ||
| Snaps | 33 (48-percent) | Last Week: 27 (37-percent) |
| Carries | 20 (51-percent) | Last Week: 9 (38-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 3 (50-percent) | Last Week: 0 |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (50-percent) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Targets | 1 (4-percent) | Last Week: 5 (12-percent of team total) |
- 20 carries – Gibson’s highest for Washington by some stretch and it resulted in 128 yards and a touchdown including 50-percent of the redzone work. He didn’t seem to have any issues with that workload either, did you hear he only ever had 33 carries in his whole college career and surely can’t carry an NFL workload? Me neither
- 3rd downs – Gibson has exactly 0 carries and 1 target on 3rd downs so far this season. McKissic on the other hand has 6 rushes and 14 targets in the same situations. Gibson is the first and second down back, McKissic is the third down back. Don’t stress about Peyton barber, he came in late when the game was already in hand, you aren’t going to be able to say that often this season about Washington
- Gamescript – so this is all about gamescript for Gibson. He has a bye in week 8 and then has the Giants, Lions and Bengals. Washington will undoubtedly be underdogs in every game but they’re all matches that they could keep close and utilise Gibson
Outlook: If you believe in a gamescript where Washington aren’t chasing for large portions then you can believe in Gibson. You’re playing him as an RB2 with hopes for top 12 production in a good matchup but realism of a low floor when they’re chasing the game early
| Joshua Kelley | ||
| Snaps | 38 (47-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Carries | 12 (38-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Redzone carries | 3 (38-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (33 percent) | Last Week: BYE |
| Targets | 5 (11-percent) | Last Week: BYE |
- Justin Jackson – he out-snapped and out-carried Jackson, and only got one less target than the man who had seemingly established himself as the lead back. That opens the door for Kelley but remember that Jackson was coming off an injury and that could have played a part
- Redzone and goal-line – Kelley may have only got 38-percent of the redzone touches but the others were from Justin ‘boy wonder’ Herbert and Joe ‘who?’ Reed, nothing from Jackson. Kelley is the goal-line back
- 1st in the NFL – that’s where Denver, LA’s next opponent, ranks in fantasy points allowed to running backs this season. Not good for Kelley in week 8
Outlook: Still looking for clarity on who is the lead back and in the meantime it’s a mess. Hold on to him if you have a spare bench spot to see how it develops but you can’t play him against Denver and if you need the spot you can drop him
| D’Andre Swift | ||
| Snaps | 28 (45-percent) | Last Week: 29 (38-percent) |
| Carries | 9 (43-percent) | Last Week: 14 (36-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 3 (75-percent) | Last Week: 4 (50-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 2 (67-percent) | Last Week: 4 (80-percent) |
| Targets | 5 (14-percent) | Last Week: 4 (13-percent) |
- 2nd in carries – despite his breakout and the excitement, old man Peterson still takes more of the rushing workload, taking 11 carries to Swift’s 9
- 5 out of 6 – that’s how many games Swift has now received 4 or 5 targets and they’re valuable. Talking of valuable, he’s also now getting the redzone work so while Peterson may be stopping Swift from a workhorse role, Swift is still getting those valuable touches
- Kerryon Johnson – bye bye Kerryon. He’s only had a small role so far this year but week 7 saw complete donuts across the board in carries and targets. If nothing else, Swift has relegated Kerryon to a complete backup role
Outlook: Swift came out of the bye with an increased workload and clearly has the high-value pass catching and goal-line role. Peterson is a headache but wouldn’t be surprised to see Swift continue to chip away at those touches too. He’s already an RB2 and if you can, snag him now before his role gets even bigger and he’s too expensive
| James Robinson | ||
| Snaps | 57 (90-percent) | Last Week: 44 (69-percent) |
| Carries | 22 (81-percent) | Last Week: 12 (75-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 2 (100-percent) | Last Week: 4 (67-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: 1 (50-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 6 (22-percent) | Last Week: 4 (9-percent of team total) |
- Career day – 22 carries, 119 yards, 6 targets, 4 catches, 18 yards, 2 total touchdowns. That’s 81-percent of team rushes, 22-percent of team targets, and 100-percent of running back touches
- RB25, RB10, RB5, RB17, RB37, RB13, RB2 – that’s his fantasy finishes in PPR each week of the season. The low weeks are the ones where he didn’t score a touchdown so there is a floor you need to watch for
- Schedule – it could be a bit of a rollercoaster for the rest of the season. Games against Houston, Green Bay and Cleveland are interrupted by a tough matchup against the Steelers in week 11. In the fantasy playoffs, it’s Baltimore and Chicago, that could be tough
Outlook: If you’d spent a top 12 draft pick on Robinson, you’d be pretty happy with what you’re getting right now. Robinson is an easy RB1, don’t overthink it
| Cam Akers | ||
| Snaps | 3 (4-percent) | Last Week: 1 (2-percent) |
| Carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
| Redzone carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
| Targets | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
- 0 – that’s how much value Akers has to your fantasy team right now
Outlook: You can drop him in all redraft leagues. Move on, do not pass go, do not collect $200
| Zack Moss | ||
| Snaps | 35 (47-percent) | Last Week: 13 (25-percent) |
| Carries | 7 (26-percent) | Last Week: 5 (22-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Targets | 3 (7-percent) | Last Week: 0 |
- Pre-injury workload – after a reduced snap count in week 6, Moss was back up to his pre-injury snap count (mid 40-percents). That’s still second in line to Singletary though
- Singletary comp – Singletary out-carried and out-targeted Moss but Moss out-produced him on both fronts, with 3 receptions for 25 yards in the air against 2 receptions for 18 yards, and 47 rushing yards (6.7 yards per carry) against 29 rushing yards (3.6 yards per carry)
- Schedule – Buffalo’s schedule for running backs is brutal from here out including the 15th best defence against running backs twice, 8th best, 7th, 4th, 2nd and 1st
Outlook: There’s a chance he takes over more of the role with Singletary not playing well but he’s a deep stash based on that schedule (and a bye week still to come). I’d be more than happy to drop him unless you can flip him for a useful piece
| La’Mical Perine | ||
| Snaps | 40 (70-percent) | Last Week: 41 (58-percent) |
| Carries | 11 (50-percent) | Last Week: 7 (32-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 3 (100-percent) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Targets | 3 (13-percent) | Last Week: 3 (7-percent of team total) |
- No Bell – with Bell gone, Perine’s snap count jumped to 58-percent and now 70-percent, he’s become a significant part of this offense. Almost more importantly, Gore only played 28-percent snaps, this was Perine on the field in more situations
- 50-percent – Perine and Gore each got exactly 50-percent of the team’s carries in this one. Not a single quarterback sneak, scramble, wide receiver pitch, nothing. It’s the first time Gore didn’t get the majority of the carries so the tide seems to be turning
- Quality – the problem with Perine is the quality of the team he’s on and who he has around him. The Jets struggle to move the ball, they struggle to get in to a half-decent gamescript, and they struggle to turn anything in to points
Outlook: Consider Perine as a flex play if you need otherwise stash him to see how he goes in the next couple of weeks. The quality of the production is not good but he’s starting to get the volume so if he can marginalise Frank Gore, it could be enough for a semi-regular flex play
Wide Receiver
- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Laviska Shenault
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Justin Jefferson (BYE)
- Tee Higgins
- Henry Ruggs
- Chase Claypool
- Denzel Mims
- KJ Hamler
Jerry Jeudy
- 75-percent snap count is fairly consistent but that resulted in 58 snaps (highest so far this season) due to the volume of offensive plays the Broncos ran trying to stay in this game
- 4 targets and 2 catches – that’s a 10-percent target share and that’s just not good enough to make him a useable asset. Lock threw a lot to his tight ends in this one and with Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler getting plenty of targets, there just isn’t enough to go around
- 50-percent – Jeudy’s catch-rate has failed to top 57-percent this season and outside of one unlikely touchdown he’s put up fantasy duds throughout
Outlook: I believe in the talent but I don’t believe it’s going to turn in to fantasy production this season. You can drop him in redraft leagues if you haven’t already
CeeDee Lamb
- 23-percent target share – if I told you that Lamb got this target share in a high-powered Dallas offense at the start of the year you’d have snapped him up. But with Dak injured and the o-line in tatters, the overall quantity of targets and the quality of those targets has plummeted. 23-percent target share this week was only worth 5 targets
- 0-percent – in weeks 1-5 with Dak throwing the ball, Lamb caught at least 5 balls and had over 70-percent catch-rate in four of five games. In week 6, that catch rate dropped to 64-percent and in week 7 it was 0. Not a single catch.
- 31 snaps is also Lamb’s lowest snap count of the season. With Blake Bell, Cedrick Wilson and Noah Brown all getting some playing time, the Cowboys struggled to get anything going
Outlook: I’m not panicking too much on Lamb just yet. The whole Cowboys offense gets a big downgrade but he’ll have better days than this. Hold him for now if you have him
Laviska Shenault
- 3 targets – that’s his lowest total of the season so far and only represents 11-percent of the team’s target share. His targets had been rising over the first part of the season so this is a disappointing drop to see. They spread the ball around in Jacksonville and that isn’t good for your fantasy shares
- 100-percent – he did catch them all though, even if it only put 44 yards on the board.
- Week 8 bye – Shenault now goes in to a bye with tumult at the quarterback position and a big unknown as to what happens next with this team
Outlook: He passes the eye-test but he’s not getting the opportunities. He’s a boom/bust option to put in your flex, close your eyes and hope for a big play
Brandon Aiyuk
- 6 catches for 115 yards is Aiyuk’s highest so far since his debut in week 2, coming off 7 targets. That’s a 28-percent target share, a mark usually reserved exclusively for George Kittle
- Deebo Samuel – now out injured again, Aiyuk’s opportunity to solidify himself as the number one receiver in this offense is wide open
- Seattle Seahawks – that’s Aiyuk’s week 8 matchup, and you may have heard that Seattle are top of the league in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and yards allowed to wide receivers. Juicy
Outlook: Go pick up Aiyuk if he’s available. If you’ve got him, start him for this week at least
Tee Higgins
- 63 snaps (84-percent) – highest of the season for Higgins despite picking up a knock. That’s slightly behind a resurgent AJ Green and ahead of Tyler Boyd. Higgins is getting on the field as an alpha receiver
- 5 targets – it may be his lowest total since he caught his first pass in week 2 but it’s not his lowest catch total, hauling in all 5 of his targets in this one for 71 yards and a touchdown
- WR14 on the week, WR22 on the season so far and that’s without having had a target in week 1
Outlook: Keep putting Higgins in your lineup with confidence, he’s a WR2
Henry Ruggs
- 3 for 3 – Ruggs has had three targets for three weeks in a row now and outside of one long touchdown run in week 5, he’s not really done much with it
- 2 catches for 35 yards is all she wrote in week 7
- Tampa Bay are a difficult defence so let’s not be too hard on the guy. He has a better matchup in week 8 on the road in Cleveland (2nd in points allowed to wide receivers) before two tough matchups at the Chargers and home to the Broncos
Outlook: No need to hold Ruggs unless you’re in a deeper league or looking for a desperation boom/bust flex play
Chase Claypool
- “Watch out for Johnson returning” – I did warn you
- 1 target, 1 catch, -2 yards – yes, that is a negative sign in front of the yards. Claypool made his hay while Diontae Johnson was out injured. Johnson is the clear number one in this offense and has been while ever he’s been on the field
- 3, 7.3, 0, 2 – with Diontae on the field, Claypool’s target shares have been 6.3-percent, 7.3-percent, 0-percent and 2-percent
- The good news is that Claypool isn’t the fourth option on his team. He still got 65-percent of snaps and has usurped James Washington for that third spot behind Johnson and JuJu. Washington only managed one target on 23-percent of snaps in week 7, he’s clearly the odd man out
Outlook: I’m not dropping him but I’m not playing him against Baltimore in week 8 either. Sure he could boom at any time but he can also lay an egg like this. He does get Dallas in week 9 so there could be plenty to go around in that one, even for the third option on his team
Denzel Mims
- 48 snaps (79-percent) – in his debut, the rookie was thrown straight into action. He was third on the snap count list for receivers behind Perriman and Berrios, but only barely. And he’s clearly ahead of Jeff Smith now (remember when he was a thing in prime time for a week??)
- 30-percent target share – 4 catches for 42 yards off 7 targets doesn’t sound that exciting but that was good enough for a 30-percent target share. They were not shy about throwing him the ball and that’s a great sign
- Still the Jets though – love the opportunity but remember this is the Jets and the quality of those targets leaves something to be desired. Crowder missed this one too and he will command much more of the target share going forward
Outlook: Promising signs and a great start to his career but I’m not rushing to grab him just yet unless I have plenty of bench space
KJ Hamler
- 39-percent snaps – Hamler returned from injury but only to 39-percent of snaps. This could have been a process of easing him back in but it also could be reflective of Tim Patrick having taken the ‘Courtland Sutton role’. Patrick injured his hamstring in this one so if he’s going to miss any time then Hamler could benefit
- 3 targets, 2 catches, 24 yards – not overly inspiring but as noted he wasn’t on the field all that much really. And Lock was utilising his many tight end options in this one
- Chargers, Falcons, Raiders – the full gambit of defences face the Broncos over the next few weeks. The Chargers have one of the toughest defences for wide receivers whilst the Falcons have one of the easiest and the Raiders are bang in the middle
Outlook: Good to see him back from injury but you don’t need to consider him as an option to pick up
Injury Issues
- Jalen Reagor (WR)
- Michael Pittman Jr (WR)
- Bryan Edwards (WR)
- Darrynton Evans (RB)
Backup – not this year without an injury
- Jordan Love (QB) – inactive
- Jalen Hurts (QB) – 5 snaps, 2 rushes for 2 yards and 0 pass attempts
- Jacob Eason (QB) – bye
- James Morgan (QB) – inactive
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB) – 2 special teams snaps and 0 offensive snaps
- Anthony McFarland Jr (RB) – 5 snaps, 1 rush for 6 yards and 1 target for 0 catches
- DeeJay Dallas (RB) – 0 rushes, 3 targets for 2 catches and 18 yards and a completely missed blitz! Keep an eye on the Seattle injury reports this week, Dallas might be last man standing
- AJ Dillon (RB) – Jones out injured but still only got 5 rushes for 11 yards and 0 targets on 14 snaps
- Lynn Bowden (RB) – Bye
- Devin Duvernay (WR) – Bye
- Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR) – Injured Reserve
- Quintez Cephus (WR) – inactive
- Van Jefferson (WR) – 3 snaps, 1 target for 1 catch and 14 yards
- Gabriel Davis (WR) – 95-percent of snaps with John Brown out but only got 3 targets for 1 catch and 11 yards
Special Tight End Category
- Devin Asiasi – inactive for the first time this season, coinciding with Dalton Keene’s first game. Not fantasy relevant
- Cole Kmet – took a couple of big catches in a primetime game but those were his only 2 targets on the day and his snap count is still in the low 20s (30-35 percent). Not fantasy relevant at this stage
- Josiah Deguara – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
- Dalton Keene – finally made his debut and took all of Asiasi’s snaps. He also got a target which he hauled in for 8 yards. That’s one more target than Asiasi has had in the previous five games but still not fantasy relevant
- Adam Trautman – he’s not the pass-catching tight end, adding one target to make it four targets in five games. Not fantasy relevant
- Harrison Bryant – see below
- Albert Okwuegbunam – see below
- Colby Parkinson – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
- Brycen Hopkins – active for the first time with Higbee out but only played 2 snaps. Not fantasy relevant
Harrison Bryant
- 77-percent snap count – that’s his highest so far with Hooper missing the game and boy did he make it count
- 5 targets – also his highest and he turned that in to 4 catches, 56 yards and 2 (yes, 2) touchdowns
- 2 yards/target is another high mark for him and his 14 yards/reception equals his mark from week 2 (which was only on 2 targets)
Outlook: Lots to watch out for with Hooper’s recovery and whether the impending trade deadline has any impact on David Njoku. If either of them are missing, Bryant is now an option for your fantasy lineups, particularly as a bye-week fill in
Albert Okwuegbunam
- Thank goodness pronunciation is not an issue in the written form
- 6 & 7 – that’s his target totals over the last two weeks and his 7 targets this week was the joint highest on his team
- Missouri – that’s where Albert went to college and caught passes from {check’s notes} Drew Lock. We’re now starting to see that connection over the past couple of weeks and if he continues to catch 100-percent of his targets then it will absolutely continue (note: I know he won’t catch 100-percent of his targets every game… or will he??)
Outlook: Keep an eye on him, particularly in deeper leagues. He’s not producing fantasy-relevant output just yet but he’s getting the playing time and getting the looks. A fully fit Fant (say that 5 times in a row) dampens the upside but Lock just made plenty of room for both of them
Start, Stash or Stink
Not including the injured and obvious backup guys, here’s who you can Start, who you should Stash on your bench and who should be Stinking up the waiver wire.
Start
Quarterback – Joe Burrow & Justin Herbert
Running Back – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson, D’Andre Swift, James Robinson
Wide Receiver – Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk (for Week 8)
Tight End – N/A
Stash
Quarterback – Tua Tagovailoa
Running Back – Joshua Kelley, JK Dobbins, Zack Moss, La’Mical Perine
Wide Receiver – CeeDee Lamb, Laviska Shenault, Brandon Aiyuk, Chase Claypool, Denzel Mims
Tight End – Harrison Bryant, Albert Okwuegbunam
Stink
Quarterback – N/A
Running Back – Cam Akers
Wide Receiver – Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, KJ Hamler
Tight End – Everyone not named Harrison or Albert
Week 8 Ones-to-Watch
The two guys I’m watching closely for this week:
- D’Andre Swift – see if he can continue to chip away at Peterson’s share of the workload
- Tua – he’s got the job, now lets see how he looks
Don’t forget to check back next week to see how these rookie values are changing.
