I am….Mapletron: Week 6 Rookie Stock Update
We’re getting in to that tricky part of the season where bye-weeks kick in, injuries mount up and we’re left questioning which of our rookie stashes are worth holding on to and which we can drop for a one-week starter. Add in a sprinkle of Covid-induced spontaneous bye-weeks and that task becomes even harder. What makes this decision more difficult is the seemingly boom and bust nature of some of the rookies who score a big touchdown one week and then disappoint the next. So instead of chasing the points, lets look at the trends of their workloads to help make those keep/drop decisions.
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As noted in my introduction to this series, each week I’m going to do a stock take on the rookies, review how they’re progressing and speculate on their outlook for the rest of the season.
Here is the Week 6 rookie stock update.
Starters
Quarterback
- Joe Burrow
- Justin Herbert
It’s fair to call it his worst game so far in his short career but we shouldn’t worry too much. He was up against a stout Baltimore Ravens team who have only conceded two passing touchdowns outside of their game against the Chiefs. It was never going to be an easy matchup for the number one pick and this should only help him learn and grow. He had season lows in attempts (30), completions (19), yards (183) and this is the first game where he hasn’t put up a touchdown either through the air or on the ground. In fact, his stat line looks remarkably like his week one performance but without the rushing touchdown. And he took a beating in this one, getting sacked seven times, so he’ll be looking for a bit more help from his offensive line next time around.
He’s now officially the starter in LA and Justin Herbert came out in the first half showing that primetime was not going to phase him. He threw for three first half touchdowns and looked to be ripping the soul away from Drew Brees in the process. The big stage wasn’t a problem and the tough Saints defense wasn’t enough to stop him from taking control early. The second half started to wear on him as the Saints improved and he lost Keenan Allen to injury. That’s a concern for Herbert if Allen is going to miss time, but he rallied and stayed in the game throwing another touchdown in the second half to his new favourite weapon, Hunter Henry.
He got his team in position to win the game with a long field goal but the upright put an end to that storyline and he eventually lost it in OT. He looked damn good in this one, a few things to work on, but boy is he fun to watch and the ball comes out of his hand like a missile. He’s got a couple of weeks to think about it now with a bye in week 6 but lets see how he rallies from a tough overtime defeat when he takes on the Jaguars in week 7. His 12-percent touchdown rate from the last two weeks isn’t sustainable but he should definitely be on the streaming radar after the bye.
Running Back
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Jonathan Taylor
- Antonio Gibson
- Joshua Kelley
- D’Andre Swift
- JK Dobbins
- James Robinson
- Cam Akers
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | ||
| Snaps | 43 (60-percent) | Last Week: 41 (73-percent) |
| Carries | 10 (50-percent) | Last Week: 16 (64-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 1 (25-percent) | Last week: 2 (67-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (50-percent) | Last week: 1 (50-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 8 (19-percent) | Last week: 3 (10-percent of team total) |
I’ve seen some rumblings this week that there may be some frustrations starting to set in with CEH. He’s just not producing those top-five performances that many have convinced themselves are going to happen. Well firstly, we need to temper our expectations. Wouldn’t it be nice to get the Kareem Hunt 2017 rookie season from him? Would it?!
I looked back at Hunt’s rookie year and from weeks 4-13 he didn’t score a single touchdown. Not one. And his PPR finishes during that time:
- RB17
- RB14
- RB15
- RB10
- RB26
- RB24
- RB29
- RB63
- RB35
So CEH’s RB27 performance in week five is not that far out of the realms of what Hunt was producing during parts of his rookie year. Interesting what we remember isn’t it?
The other thing to look at with CEH is his usage. I looked at his total opportunities (carries + targets) so far this season as a proportion of team opportunities. I then compared it to some other top running backs so far this year and, for good measure, Kareem Hunt’s 2017 efforts.
He stacks up ok, is right there with Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara, and not too far behind 2017 Hunt. He’s getting opportunity. His carries may have been down this week but he got 8 targets, and that’s huge.
The concern continues to be touchdowns and running in the redzone appears to be an issue. But remember this is the Chiefs, and they’re bound to find ways around that. Like his receiving touchdown that was called back on a penalty in week five, if that stands then the excitement for CEH looks a whole lot different. Now, remember that list of weekly finishes above for Hunt in 2017, here’s where he landed in the fantasy playoffs:
- RB10
- RB2
- RB8
Does this mean CEH is guaranteed to be a league-winner? No, but I’m still in on CEH, he’s getting the workload and we have a clear example of what can happen in an Andy Reid offense when that’s the case. I’m buying him from anyone who is nervous.
| Jonathan Taylor | ||
| Snaps | 31 (55-percent) | Last Week: 33 (46-percent) |
| Carries | 12 (67-percent) | Last Week: 17 (45-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 1 (50-percent) | Last Week: 3 (33-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: 1 (33-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 3 (9-percent) | Last Week: 1 (3-percent of team total) |
His snaps are stable and although his carries were down, his portion of the team carries increased to 67-percent in week five with Hines and Wilkins getting three and one carries respectively. That’s very promising in terms of the backfield splits. There weren’t too many redzone looks to go around but Taylor was the man inside the ten and got the rushing touchdown, that’s what we’re going to need from him.
Outside of his six target game in week one and then his 26 carry game in week two, the last three weeks has been fairly stable. Between 12 and 17 carries, between one and three targets, less than 100 total yards all three weeks. The Colts had to throw a fair bit in this game so it takes away some of that volume on the ground, and he just isn’t involved enough in the passing game to be a factor there at this stage. Patience continues to be the order of the day, and if his usage continues in the same way then we’re going to need touchdowns for him to pay off as a high-end starter.
| Antonio Gibson | ||
| Snaps | 30 (56-percent) | Last Week: 31 (44-percent of team total) |
| Carries | 11 (79-percent) | Last Week: 13 (59-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 1 (50-percent) | Last Week: 4 (57-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (50-percent) | Last Week: 3 (50-percent of team total) |
| Targets | 5 (17-percent) | Last Week: 5 (11-percent of team total) |
Antonio Gibson, what do we do with you? The initial concerns are how JD McKissic looked and the workload he got with Alex Smith under centre. But when you look at the stats, Gibson got a similar number of snaps to the prior week, a larger share of the carries (outside of one carry from McKissic, Gibson got all the running back carries) and got five targets for the second week in a row.
His fate could be tied to whoever is throwing the ball and the initial word is that Kyle Allen could be back there in week six. I’m a little less bullish than I was last week on Gibson but I’m not making any drastic moves. I was calling for momentum to build with Gibson and that took a hit this week but I’m still optimistic and if you can get him cheap now, I would.
Week 5 One-to-Watch: Joshua Kelley
| Joshua Kelley | ||
| Snaps | 25 (35-percent) | Last Week: 30 (57-percent of team total) |
| Carries | 11 (34-percent) | Last Week: 9 (39-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 1 (100-percent) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Targets | 1 (3-percent) | Last Week: 3 (12-percent of team total) |
Well I highlighted him as one-to-watch because we just didn’t know what to expect from this backfield without Ekeler. Turns out I was right not to trust Kelley this week and now I’m not sure if we’re able to trust him moving forward at all. Outside of another injury, the best case for Kelley is the lower end of a timeshare. He looks like he might be the goal-line back, which is valuable but if Herbert’s going to throw long bombs like this then there won’t be much goal-line work available for him. I’m not advocating for panic stations but with bye-weeks causing roster crunches and he himself having a bye next week, I’m not holding him if I need the spot.
| D’Andre Swift | ||
| Snaps | BYE | Last Week: 23 (38-percent of team total) |
| Carries | BYE | Last Week: 4 (18-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | BYE | Last Week: 0 (0-percent of team total) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | BYE | Last Week: 0 (0-percent of team total) |
| Targets | BYE | Last Week: 4 (13-percent of team total) |
Bye week for Swift this week, keep scrolling.
| JK Dobbins | ||
| Snaps | 18 (29-percent) | Last Week: 21 (37-percent of team total) |
| Carries | 1 (4-percent) | Last Week: 5 (32-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 |
| Targets | 3 (8-percent) | Last Week: 2 (9-percent of team total) |
This Baltimore backfield isn’t getting any clearer for Dobbins and he’s still very much a backup that gets a few touches here and there. He got a single carry in this game, which he took for 34 yards but then didn’t get another opportunity on the ground. With his lowest snap share of the season, Dobbins continues to be an injury backup only at this stage.
| James Robinson | ||
| Snaps | 43 (57-percent) | Last Week: 52 (76-percent of team total) |
| Carries | 13 (65-percent) | Last Week: 17 (85-percent of team total) |
| Redzone carries | 2 (50-percent) | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: 0 (team total = 0) |
| Targets | 7 (14-percent) | Last Week: 4 (10-percent) of team total) |
Week five was the first game of the season where Robinson didn’t hit either 100 total yards or a touchdown. He still got 13 carries and pleasingly he hit his highest target total of the year with seven. Unfortunately for Robinson, Chris Thompson had a part to play this week and impacted on Robinson’s playing time. This is one to keep an eye on, while it’s not a significant workload for Thompson it might be enough to cap Robinson’s ceiling. This remains a team who is happy to throw in the redzone so the high value carries are somewhat limited, meaning he’ll need to keep getting those targets to bolster his value. You still have to roll him out as an RB2 every week but be aware of the floor.
| Cam Akers | ||
| Snaps | 13 (19-percent) | Last Week: INJURED |
| Carries | 9 (26-percent) | Last Week: INJURED |
| Redzone carries | 0 | Last Week: INJURED |
| Opp 1-10 carries | 0 | Last Week: INJURED |
| Targets | 0 | Last Week: INJURED |
We know this is a messy backfield and we knew when Akers went down injured in week two that he was yielding a massive opportunity for Darrell Henderson to take control. The good news for Akers is that is still a split backfield. That might sound counter-intuitive but it means that Henderson hasn’t taken the reigns and the opportunity is still there for Akers.
Don’t worry too much about his numbers for this week, it was his first game back and he was used sparingly in an easy win for the Rams. McVay has already spoken about using him more next week so we’ll see whether he starts to get a grip of the playing time then. I’m putting him on my one-to-watch list for week six to see how he goes.
Wide Receiver
- Jerry Jeudy
- CeeDee Lamb
- Laviska Shenault
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Justin Jefferson
- Tee Higgins
- Henry Ruggs
An unexpected bye week for Jeudy so nothing to report in week five. He still gets to go to New England next week but the extra week hopefully gives enough time for Drew Lock to be back and throwing him the ball.
Lamb got his lowest snap count of the season (55-percent) but his highest number of targets with 11, that’s 33-percent of the target share. He had a 73-percent catch rate despite his aDOT (average depth of target) being over 12 yards for the second week in a row. This guy has quickly turned in to a machine, posting 124 yards on the week.
The question mark now is the Quarterback. With Dak’s devastating injury, he now not only has to get a rapport with Andy Dalton but the overall passing volume that has supported all of these receiving options is likely to drop. Dalton seemed to connect well with the deep ball to Gallup at the end of the game but with the way Lamb has played in his first few NFL games, he’ll get that connection before long and you’ll be able to trust him on a weekly basis. This guy is good. Really good.
Week 5 One-to-Watch: Laviska Shenault
Last week I pointed out that Shenault had put up ‘pairs’ of games with two games of 4 targets/3 catches and two games of 6 targets/5 catches so my OCD side was delighted to see 8 targets/7 catches in week five! He’s not a dominant alpha receiver who is going to get all the targets in Jacksonville and I’m not sure he ever will be, especially considering the way Minshew seems to spread the ball around the receivers there. But with his targets increasing, Shenault is becoming a trusted target and that will make him a useable asset in fantasy. 79 yards on seven catches makes him a low-end WR2 in PPR so definitely startable even without a touchdown. He’ll have those big games every now and then where he does put up a touchdown or two and you’ll absolutely wish he was in your lineup.
I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks now that Aiyuk was going to struggle to get substantial volume with all of the weapons returning from injury in San Francisco. Last week he was saved by a long rushing TD but this week we saw what happens if he doesn’t get that touchdown. Three catches for 44 yards. I know the 49ers didn’t have the best of games this week but this stat line is absolutely something you can expect from Aiyuk, he isn’t going to score those gadget TDs every week. He played 97-percent of the snaps so he’s going to be on the field, but if you’re going to put Aiyuk in your lineup then you need to be ready for games like these.
Justin Jefferson came crashing back to earth in week five after two monster games. It was a strange game against the Seahawks, with the miserable weather playing a factor along the way. Wide Receivers can be volatile at the best of the times so don’t panic on the rookie. The Vikings are running more plays and have found their groove on offense now, and that meant the biggest snap count of the season so far for Jefferson. He’s the number two option on this team, he’s still playing the Stefon Diggs role which we knew was boom or bust most of the time. And he gets Atlanta next week…kerching!
Another receiver who boomed a couple of weeks ago and has been a little quiet since is Tee Higgins. The Bengals really struggled to do anything against the Ravens and it should come as no surprise that they kept Higgins out of the game. But look at some of the key metrics – 8 targets was good for 27-percent market share and was more than Tyler Boyd; 81-percent snap share was second in skill position players behind Drew Sample (not counting the QB); and 1 target was all that AJ Green can put to his name in this game.
Green was supposed to be the man that Higgins would eventually replace and with a combination of Green’s injuries, his apparent lack of connection with Burrow, and Higgins’ rapid development, Higgins is now the man. I foolishly said he wasn’t a ‘must add’ last week because of two tough games against the Ravens and the Colts coming up, and hopefully this proves to be true with people dropping him again. But if not, go get him now. Like, now! What are you still doing here? Go!!
118 yards and a touchdown for Henry Ruggs, welcome to the NFL son. He was back in the line-up and a full-time receiving option for Derek Carr in a big week for the Raiders. But despite the Raiders throwing 31 times, Ruggs only got 3 of those targets. His touchdown displayed his breakaway speed and showed off a huge weapon for the Raiders to now use downfield. If Ruggs can get in to space for Carr to find him, there’s no stopping him.
But a word of caution. That touchdown made up 72 of his 118 yards for the day. That’s great but rarely sustainable on a weekly basis so you have to be aware that Ruggs will have games where he gets less than 5 targets, a sprinkling of catches and gives your fantasy team nothing of note. A very exciting player and I’m looking out for those big plays but I’m not relying on them.
Injury Issues
- Zack Moss (RB)
- Jalen Reagor (WR)
- Denzel Mims (WR)
- Michael Pittman Jr (WR)
- Bryan Edwards (WR)
- KJ Hamler (WR)
A nice reduction in this list this week with Cam Akers and Henry Ruggs returning to action.
I’ll keep an eye on these guys coming back and we can hopefully start to see some action in the not-too-distant future.
LONGER-TERM PLAY WITH EARLY QUESTION MARKS
- Chase Claypool (WR)
- Gabriel Davis (WR)
I am…..Mapletron! To anyone who doesn’t know, any decent big-body wide receiver automatically gets compared to Calvin Johnson and then gets some sort of Megatron-themed nickname. Kenny Golladay gets Babytron, and because Chase Claypool is Canadian he gets Mapletron. This also gives nerds like me an opportunity to dredge up my childhood with Transformers references.
Anyway, I’m digressing from what we really should be talking about here. How good was Chase Claypool?! 11 targets, 7 catches, 116 total yards, and 4 total touchdowns! And it should have been 5! Ok, lets calm down. We aren’t going to get that every week but boy did Big Ben find himself a receiver to throw to. Let’s put in the caveats here, his opportunity came after Diontae Johnson left with injury (again) and it was against a pretty terrible Eagles secondary, but Claypool dominated with two redzone touchdowns and two long touchdowns. There’s absolutely a chance that with everyone injury-free, Claypool’s opportunity goes back to three or four targets per game but after that performance, you have to think that he’s earned himself a bigger role and that Big Ben will be looking for him more often.
And yes, I’ll move him out of this section and in with the rest of the receivers where he belongs.
Gabriel Davis reconfirmed his position as next man up when there’s injuries to Brown or Diggs. And with Brown out in week five, Davis got 9 targets and often seemed to find himself as an open option for Josh Allen. His five catches for 58 yards wasn’t spectacular but it would have looked different if his touchdown catch didn’t get negated with a penalty. He looks great when he gets his opportunity so if John Brown is going to miss any time or there’s any other injuries down the line, have a look for Davis as a nice option to fill in.
Tua-Watch (Potential Late Season Plays)
- Tua Tagovailoa (QB)
At this point I’m picturing Tua sitting on a wall, dangling his legs and throwing rocks in to a river while he waits for something to happen. There’s some questions as to whether he’s fully ready to go and with the Dolphins taking down the 49ers like they did, why would you risk it? This kid is the future of the franchise, we don’t need to worry about seeing him too early in the season.
Backup – not this year without an injury
- Jordan Love (QB)
- Jalen Hurts (QB)
- Jacob Eason (QB)
- James Morgan (QB)
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB)
- Darrynton Evans (RB)
- La’Mical Perine (RB)
- Anthony McFarland Jr (RB)
- DeeJay Dallas (RB)
- AJ Dillon (RB)
- Lynn Bowden (RB)
- Devin Duvernay (WR)
- Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR)
- Quintez Cephus (WR)
After making his debut in week four, Ke’Shawn Vaughn got on the field for Tampa again in week five with injuries lingering to McCoy and Fournette. He again played 25-percent of snaps, got three targets and caught the ball twice. But he got a total of five yards, didn’t get a single carry and got nailed big on his last contribution, fumbling the ball to the Bears in the proces. Fournette was active so I imagine he’s back on the field in week six, so that could be all she wrote for Vaughn for a little while.
Darrynton Evans was starting to get some playing time as a rotation for Derrick Henry, and he looked pretty good before a hamstring injury cut his day short. Jeremy McNichols took that role for the rest of the game so it’s something that the Titans are clearly conscious of doing this season. If Evans can stay on the field, there could be a role for him.
Anthony McFarland is still trying to carve out a role behind Conner but only managed three carries on five snaps in week four, with Benny Snell once again the preferred next man up.
With Le’Veon Bell back, Perine was relegated to special teams duties, the same place as Deejay Dallas currently finds himself. With Bell now released by the Jets, keep an eye on whether Perine starts to get more work in New York. Lynn Bowden got himself three carries for a mighty four yards but did play 10 snaps for the first time, while Antonio Gandy-Golden played his biggest snap share of the year (43-percent) but without a single target.
Devin Duvernay is an interesting one to watch, with his role seemingly nudging up to relevance. He got 29-percent of offensive snaps after 28-percent in week 4, has now had three games in a row with two or more targets and added a big splash 42 yard rushing play to his resume. The Ravens look to be trying to get him moving a little so keep an eye out here.
AJ Dillon and Quintez Cephus had week five byes.
Jalen Hurts finally threw his first NFL pass, completing it for 18 yards, but he only played two snaps and the Eagles look like they’ll continue to use him in a handful of gadget plays each week. The good news is he didn’t fumble this week.
Special Tight End Category
- Devin Asiasi
- Cole Kmet
- Josiah Deguara
- Dalton Keene
- Adam Trautman
- Harrison Bryant
- Albert Okwuegbunam
- Colby Parkinson
- Brycen Hopkins
New England had an unexpected bye in week four so nothing to discuss for Asiasi or Keene, likewise for Deguara in Green Bay and Albert O in Denver.
Cole Kmet’s snap share was back to 33-percent but no targets as Jimmy Graham is the golden child (maybe more a golden-oldie), while Adam Trautman was named inactive with Jared Cook back from injury.
Harrison Bryant had his lowest snap share of the season (40-percent) with David Njoku back in the lineup. He wasn’t able to make the most of his opportunity with Njoku injured and it now appears that Austin Hooper is becoming the preferred TE receiving option in Cleveland. Bryant will still get some playing time and the odd target here or there but he’s one for the future, not for 2020.
Colby Parkinson remains on IR and Brycen Hopkins is still waiting for his first callup.
Week 6
We’re really starting to see a separation of players to either end of the scale now. We have guaranteed starters who are a key part of their offense, and we’re seeing clear backups who are going to need some serious depth-chart impact to get much of a sniff.
At Quarterback, Justin Herbert has put himself in the mix as a startable option along with Joe Burrow who is still an option when he has a better matchup. Don’t get scared off on CEH, Taylor and Robinson and there may still be a chance to buy them cheap. Gibson is still an intriguing RB2 option with some quarterback questions, and we need to see what Cam Akers can do to set himself apart in the LA backfield.
Ceedee Lamb is a locked and loaded starter. Justin Jefferson, Jeudy, Higgins and Shenault are all on the rise behind him as solid starters. For Higgins, I’m trying to get him now knowing that he may struggle against the Colts in week six and you may have one more chance to get him after that. Claypool can be a starter but don’t be shocked if his opportunity reduces when Diontae Johnson returns.
The rest are situational. Aiyuk and Ruggs can be boom or bust options in deeper leagues and the other rookie running backs are bench players with the hope that they can settle in as the year progresses.
The two guys I’m watching closely for this week:
- Cam Akers – opportunity to stamp his authority on a messy backfield
- CeeDee Lamb – looking to see how a new quarterback changes volume and opportunity in Dallas
Don’t forget to check back next week to see how these rookie values are changing.
