Does a coach’s philosophy affect fantasy production or does the production depend on the player himself? Can a player produce outside of a good scheme? Can the scheme produce production alone? These were some questions that crossed my mind recently. So I took a look into the numbers and tried to find an answer to some of these questions. The answers may surprise you!
Coaching
The top ten fantasy offenses from 2020-21 season consisted of six teams led by offensive minded head coaches and four defensive minded coaches. My thoughts coming into this would be that some of the brightest offensive minds would be in this category. This was mostly true, however guys like Shanahan and McVay did not make this list. How could two of the brightest minds in football not produce top fantasy offenses? I needed to find out why!
McVay and the Rams finished 13th in total fantasy production while Shanahan and the 49ers finished 23rd. Shanahan along with Zach Taylor and Matt Ruhle were the only offensive minded head coaches to finish in the bottom ten of the league in fantasy production. This was starting to confirm the idea that an offensive minded coach was needed to build a top ten fantasy offense. However, the top ten also had its share of defensive minded head coaches, how could this be? For me the answer relies on trust and the ability to have an open mind.
These coaches tend to lean on the offensive coordinator to handle the offense as a whole, so we could say that they are as equally important to fantasy production. While looking into this more the key take away I found was that the play caller is a key cog to fantasy production. Nine of the top ten teams all averaged over 50 percent neutral passing percentages. They can put the players in a spot to produce on the field which in turn produces results in fantasy football. This does not answer how Shanahan who is regarded as a great offensive mind, who also calls the plays could end up in the bottom ten. Leading me to look into the position group side of the numbers, to see how this would correlate.
Position groups
Once you start breaking down the numbers into positional categories some trends start to emerge. One position tends to be more important than the rest in helping to produce a top fantasy offense, this position is quarterback! In 2020-21 eight of the top ten teams in total fantasy point production had a top eight finish from their quarterback. Below is a chart showing all the positional groupings along with a team total. This is a great graphic to see the connection!
Just like the top ten the bottom ten teams have a similar trend leading back to the same position. Eight of the bottom ten teams were led by a bottom ten quarterback. The connection between success and position groups really starts to look like the most important position is quarterback. This is an idea that seems simple and straight forward, but the affect on fantasy production is interesting when you see it all together. While examining the carts you can see that the running back position can succeed with out a top tier quarterback, however the rest of the offense tends to struggle.
Conclusion
With all this said I believe the best fantasy production needs multiple things to thrive, its not just one piece. There needs to be a marriage of player and scheme to create the most success. The coaching philosophy helps put players in the position to succeed, but the player has to execute. The best offensive minds in the game still need talented players to execute their complex schemes, while the player has to trust the play caller to put them in a place to succeeded.
The need for an elite quarterback is as equally important as the scheme, they relate back to all positions and their success. They impact the receivers and tight ends directly, but also help create space for running backs indirectly through passing production. While I build my rosters I always look for teams on the rise with a innovative coach who helps his players succeed. Finding players tied to an elite or up and coming young gun quarterback can pay off as well. When building your fantasy teams remember to look at the construction and direction the player’s team is heading, finding the emerging offense can pay off big time for a fantasy manager!
