Finding Late Round Tight End Values In 2020
Tight end represents the trickiest position for fantasy football owners to navigate. Usually, the small pool of elite players goes early. Contrarians wanting an edge at a shallow spot pay for the ADP equivalency of a Lamborghini to draft the likes of George Kittle and Travis Kelce. Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, and Darren Waller cost slightly less. But if one of those players bust, you missed out on vital manpower at other positions.
So you can either take that gamble or wait it out. But sooner than you can say O.J. Howard in 2019, you realize those with middle-round ADPs can also send your team towards the cellar. No one wants to witness their non-luxury car turn into a lemon.
If you play the waiting game, it means you hope for a functional used vehicle. You are prioritizing tight ends at the same level as kickers and defenses. The pickings will be slim. While you will pick someone, anyone, you will probably end up trying to dredge up a tight end on waivers. But isn’t that what we often do with late-round picks?
And sometimes, you find that bargain ride that gives you the reliability and functionally you would find if you forked over more dough. Getting your TE1 late gives you a big edge over your competition. And heading into the 2020 season, a number of quality players possess low ADPs. Using data from Fantasy Football Calculator, here are five players on the board in either the tenth round or beyond. This would be for a 12-team, 15-round league:
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
Like many tight ends, Fant was inconsistent as a rookie. But he showcased his high ceiling at times. In a win over Cleveland, a short pass to Fant ends up as a 75-yard touchdown. He had four receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown in a win over AFC South champion Houston. And he caught touchdown passes from three different quarterbacks.
This year, Fant works with Drew Lock from the beginning. Denver makes a heavy investment in offense on draft day. A number of new weapons make their way to the Mile High City, including wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. Tight end Albert Okwuegbunam (also known simply as Albert O) was also drafted by the Broncos. Albert O brings a prior connection with Lock to the table, as both played at Missouri.
Will Fant get lost in the shuffle? With so many potential weapons for Lock, some down weeks could happen. But Fant constitutes a classic “swing for the fences” pick. Few players in this draft range have his tantalizing upside. And Denver’s offense appears capable of supplying several quality fantasy options. You need to strongly consider Noah if you are playing the long game.
Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints
Cook’s stock plunges after New Orleans signs Emmanuel Sanders in free agency. Sanders gives the Saints the number two wide receiver they desperately need behind Michael Thomas. Plus, Cook scored nine touchdowns on just 43 receptions. Surely, that signals touchdown regression.
Fantasy owners cannot ignore all the troubling signs surrounding Cook. Nevertheless, Cook no longer has to be drafted as a mid-range TE1. You would be likely be drafting him as a low-end TE1 and his issues become much more manageable. Cook built great rapport down the stretch with Drew Brees. He would likely get more targets in the red zone than anyone but Thomas. And his athleticism remains relatively intact, as evidenced by a 61-yard score against Tennessee. Jared proves you can find stability at a thorny spot later in drafts.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
In a rebuilding 2019 season, Miami finds some bright spots. One of which was Gesicki, who shines down the stretch. The second-year player out of Penn State caught five touchdowns during the final six games of the season. His biggest game came in a shootout win over Cincinnati, with six receptions for 82 yards and two touchdowns.
Part of Gesicki’s ascension stemmed from the absence of wide receiver Preston Williams. Williams, who was lost for the season with a torn ACL, ought to be back for Week 1. Williams and DeVante Parker will get plenty of targets. But that does not mean Gesicki gets lost in the shuffle. Even with Miami improving at running back with Jordan Howard and Matt Breida, this remains a pass-first offense. New offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has a history of using spread offenses. Gesicki should line up in the slot quite a bit. He can take advantages of mismatches while defenses focus on Parker and Williams. Miami has two capable quarterbacks in veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick and rookie Tua Tagovailoa. There are lots of reasons to like Mike in later rounds.
Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans
The glorious run of Delanie Walker reaches the end in Nashville. Smith finally earns a shot at a lead role. Even though Smith has lacked consistency through his first three seasons, he looks the part of a big-time talent at times. He produced a 41-yard touchdown last year and a 61-yard score in 2018.
Most importantly, he may end up as Tennessee’s number two receiver. A.J. Brown cemented himself as Ryan Tannehill’s top target after an outstanding rookie season. But Smith certainly could produce more than Corey Davis and Adam Humphries. If that happens, there would be enough volume for Smith to serve as a fantasy starter, even in a run-oriented offense. At a minimum, Smith will get more targets than he has ever gotten before. A late pick on Smith links you with a player on the rise.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia hopes their problems at wide receiver will be a thing of the past. First-round pick Jalen Reagor, a healthy DeSean Jackson, and former 49er Marquise Goodwin provide Carson Wentz with deep threats. If Alshon Jeffery gets healthy, he gives Wentz a capable intermediate target.
However, Zach Ertz continues to be Wentz’s most reliable target. Until proven otherwise, Goedert’s the second most reliable target. Everyone knows the drill already. If something happens to Ertz, Goedert instantly becomes a franchise fantasy player. And how many bench tight ends can be started every week? Not saying you need to start Goedert all the time, but good luck finding an option on the waiver wire with his upside. You probably would take two tight ends later if you opt for a holding pattern. Make Goedert one of them, as he grants you a unique combination of stability and potential stardom.
Mind you, other bargains exist either very late in drafts or as priority free agents. While Austin Hooper takes a hit by moving from Cleveland to Atlanta, he might be a value depending on how far he falls in your draft. T.J. Hockenson needs to get fully healthy, but shows promise as part of a strong Detroit passing game. Although Blake Jarwin’s potential took a hit when Dallas drafted CeeDee Lamb, he should produce a few big games here and there. Steady Indianapolis veteran Jack Doyle partners with Philip Rivers, who has focused on tight ends heavily in the past. And Doyle’s former teammate Eric Ebron hopes to compose a comeback campaign in Pittsburgh.
So while others go for broke, be patient and reap the rewards of a bold, but prudent strategy.
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