Week 4 Regression Analysis
Each week this article will highlight five players I think will regress positively and five that I think will regress negatively. It’s the same story every year. A player leaps out to an incredible start, but when the going gets tough around bye weeks and fantasy playoffs, he falters. It’s not his fault, though. He’s just battling regression.
It reared it’s head this past week already! We highlighted Derrick Henry and Allen Robinson as positive regression candidates, and they surely bounced back as they scored 27 and 28 points respectively. The regression train also hit Josh Jacobs and JK Dobbins pretty hard bringing them back down to Earth.
We won’t be 100% ever in highlighting regression candidates (see 2019 Aaron Jones and potentially 2020 Calvin Ridley). However history is on our side. We should expect the regression. Here are my week 4 regression candidates.
Good Things on the Way
Last week I mentioned Joe Mixon (13.9 points below expected), and that surely didn’t work out. However with an average of almost 20 touches per game, he’s bound to score a TD soon. His upside is capped without the pass game work, but his TD luck should bounce back soon.
Myles Gaskin (9.3 points below expected) is one of my favorite PPR flex guys moving forward. You likely picked him up off waiver wires, and he’s a consistent flex guy. He’s more consistent than guys you actually drafted in that role like Tarik Cohen. He’s seeing over 5 targets and 13 carries per game and similarly to Mixon, his TD luck will bounce back soon.
Amari Cooper (10.55 points below expected) is one of my favorite DFS plays this week. A high vegas total and historic TD drought points to a blow up performance this week. Yes, I said historic. The record for most targets without a TD through 3 weeks is 40. Cooper has 35 in 3 weeks. Get ready for a potential multi-TD game this week.
N’Keal Harry (8.32 points below expected) is not a name I expected to see this high, but it makes sense. He has more targets than guys like DK Metcalf, Adam Thielen, and Cooper Kupp. Yet those players have seven touchdowns combined. Harry should find the endzone soon, and it could happen in this big matchup with Kansas City.
DJ Moore (6.84 points below expected) is an interesting case. He doesn’t have an elite QB, and there’s a chance every week he gets out-targeted by his counterpart Robby Anderson. However being top ten in targets must mean something. Moore has the highest yards per reception of those top ten, but the second lowest catch percentage. Those targets should regress to the mean and become more catchable, and when they do, the touchdowns will come.
Negative Ghost Rider
Alvin Kamara (32.8 points above expected) is probably a risky pick here, but with Michael Thomas likely returning in week four, I see no way that Kamara keeps up his touchdown luck. He’s tied for 30th in carries, yet he has 6 touchdowns. Kamara has the highest score of all RBs and WRs in my week 4 regression model. Don’t expect this to keep up.
Nick Chubb (20.0 points above expected) was a name mentioned last week with the thought process that he’d have his games and disappear in negative game scripts. Against Washington, the game was never going to be in doubt. Against Dallas, this could be quite a different story. I see this week being a Kareem Hunt week so be warned.
As much as I love DK Metcalf (18.25 points above expected), his efficiency right now is absurd and not sustainable. In fact, he has the second highest yards per reception through three games EVER. Number one on that list dropped 43% in his efficiency the rest of the season. Metcalf is a great player, but this efficiency will not be sustainable.
Allen Lazard (15.0 points above expected) was a beneficiary of no Davante Adams AND the pitiful New Orleans pass defense in week three. He falls down to 2nd in the pecking order with the return of Adams. That role isn’t that valuable.
Juju Smith-Schuster (14.4 points above expected) really benefited from no Diontae Johnson in week three. Juju currently has two more touchdowns than expected so he could let you down in that department for the next few weeks. Just don’t rely on Juju to win you weeks as he’s done in the past.
