Dynasty Value Check: Corey Davis or Mike Williams?
Most first-round NFL draft picks that are relevant in dynasty leagues either turn out to be studs or duds. They are either weekly starters or total busts that are cursed for years by fantasy managers. Every once in a while there is a first-rounder that doesn’t quite live up to the hype but also isn’t a total slouch either. This article is about two of those such guys: Corey Davis and Mike Williams.
Neither one has been able to live up to their early first-round draft capital status. They have never emerged as alphas for their team or consistently put up WR1 numbers. They also haven’t totally flopped either. They both have had at least one WR3 season and shown sporadic flashes of their elite talent.
Earlier this week I conducted a poll asking the Twitter community which player they preferred:
https://twitter.com/jaltorfer1/status/1428030929172320265
This poll didn’t generate much traffic as the fantasy community has in large part soured on both receivers. The end result favored Corey Davis by a substantial margin. The Twitter poll also mirrors how we rank them in our Yards Per Fantasy dynasty rankings. We currently have Davis ranked WR63 and Williams WR69.
Davis and Williams are both just 26 years old so they certainly have enough time to turn their careers around and live up to their full potential. But, which one should we be valuing higher in dynasty?
Let’s take a closer look at the metrics:
| Metrics | Corey Davis | Mike Williams |
| Age | 26.6 | 26.8 |
| Height | 6-3 | 6-4 |
| Weight | 209 lbs | 218 lbs |
| Draft Capital | 1.05 | 1.07 |
| Speed Score | 102 | 102.3 |
| 2020 FPPG | 13.4 | 9.9 |
| 2020 Targets | 92 | 85 |
| 2020 Receptions | 65 | 48 |
| 2020 Total Yards | 984 | 756 |
| 2020 Total Touchdowns | 5 | 5 |
The Case for Davis
The athletic profiles for Davis and Williams are incredibly similar. Even their draft capital is only a difference of two spots. Where Davis starts to break away is his fantasy points per game. He was far and away the more consistent WR in 2020 and really throughout his entire career. He signed a lucrative new contract with the New York Jets and is expected to be their No. 1 target.
I usually feel uneasy about a rookie quarterback slinging the ball around to my fantasy wideouts but Zach Wilson should be able to pepper Davis with enough targets down the field to make up for any inefficiency. Mix in the fact that Kyle Shanahan understudy, Mike LaFleur, is calling the plays and there is a lot to be optimistic about in New York.
Davis had the best season of his career in 2020 as the Tennessee Titans’ WR2. If he is ever going to get over the 1,000-yard hump it’s going to be this year as the WR1 on a team that is expected to be trailing in most games. Wilson will be looking to the veteran receiver early and often as a safety valve all season long.
The Case for Williams
Williams’ ceiling has always been incredibly high. He has the 2020 rookie of the year tossing him the ball with a much improved offensive line and a respected new play-caller. The Chargers are a high-powered offense chomping at the bit to break out.
Rumors out of camp have rumbled that Joe Lombardi plans to use Williams in the “X” position. This is the position that Michael Thomas finished as the WR1 when Lombardi was in New Orleans. Make no mistake about it, Keenan Allen is the WR we really want in this offense but if this is true, then Williams could vastly outperform his current Underdog ADP of 75.
The main thing Williams has going for him is the talent surrounding him. Allen should command a lot of safety help over the top leaving Williams in some favorable matchups. Justin Herbert is an ascending quarterback that is extremely accurate on down-the-field throws which is where Williams thrives.
The Winner: Davis
If you are someone who likes to take big risks in hopes for a big payoff, then I would suggest you take a shot at drafting Mike Williams. Corey Davis is by far the safer option, however.
He will be the Jets WR1 for 2021 and for as long as he can hold off Elijah Moore. He should command a ton of targets on a team that will be trailing and forced to throw the ball around.
Zach Wilson is probably no Justin Herbert but he should be more than capable enough to sustain Davis as a WR3 for fantasy purposes. Davis is past the threshold of ever being a cornerstone player in dynasty leagues but he can still be a reliable starter for years to come given the fact that he is only 26.
Corey Davis is undervalued 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/9udDJjWYLC
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) August 19, 2021
