Dynasty Outlook: Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson 2023 Dynasty Outlook
It’s no surprise to anyone who has watched football recently when I say that Russell Wilson has not been all that great to watch over the past two seasons. Although I haven’t had him on any of my fantasy teams, I assume the sentiment is the same for those of you who did, as his QB16 finish in both seasons was rather unexpected and pretty disappointing. Is this the beginning of the end for the great career of Russell Wilson, or is it simply a speed bump on the way to a late career resurgence for the surefire Hall of Famer? I’ll give you the reasons why I would buy and sell Wilson in dynasty leagues, what level of player(s) it would take to acquire him or what you could get in return for him, and finally, what situations I would buy or sell him in.
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Reasons to Buy
Late Reminiscence of Peak DangeRuss
One of the main reasons I would look to be buying Wilson is how he finished last season. Over his final four games, he produced three top-5 performances. In those three games, he threw for seven touchdowns. Obviously that pace is unrealistic, but it showed that things were starting to click with his weapons. In that four game stretch, he was on a 4,105 yard, 34 TD pace. That is nearly identical to his peak years in Seattle, which produced 3,853 yard, 30 TD averages and eight top-10 finishes in as many seasons. If the finish to his season is an indication of what lies ahead for Wilson, he could easily find himself as a valuable dynasty quarterback once again.
Only Up From Here?
2022 was arguably the worst year of Wilson’s 11-year career. He had career lows in both completion percentage and QBR. The former was 4.5-percent lower than his career average, while the latter was 8.2 points lower than his previous career low and 17.4 points lower than his career average going into last season. While it could just be the end of the road after a long run of high level play, I would bet on at least a bit of positive regression in his second year in Denver. Productivity numbers don’t typically drop that hard when the drop is age related. That sharp of a fall usually is injury or situation related. Wilson dealt with both of those things this past season, so I’m guessing those numbers get closer to normal in 2023.
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Reasons to Sell
Aging Like Not So Fine Wine
Most quarterbacks peak around their mid to late-20s, and Wilson was no different. His first 4,000 yard, 30-plus TD season came at age 27. The end of each player’s peak is different, but for the top level guys, it tends to come around the 33-35 year old range. As shown in the below graphic, which I got from a PFF article that explored how Tom Brady defied all of the typical aging trends, the age 35 season was the second season of a downhill slide for both Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees in terms of Average Depth of Target (aDOT). It was even a bit of a dip for Brady, even though he would go on to play at a high level for many more years.
The next graphic (from the same PFF article) shows that it’s not just those three that were affected by the age 35 wall. Although the specific age 35 season isn’t all that bad in and of itself, every subsequent season sees a drop in aDOT. Not only is there a drop, it is a pretty steep drop. Wilson may be able to muster up one more year of top level aDOT, but the ensuing drop off could be drastic.
Uninspiring Play
Now I know, there are outliers for every statistic (Brady is the normal one for nearly every age related quarterback stat). However, Wilson hasn’t shown much in the past few seasons that would show that he has a ton left in his tank. His completion percentage and TD rate have both declined in each of the past three seasons, while he also had the fewest rushing attempts in his career the past two seasons. Between his recent play and the history of quarterbacks his age, it doesn’t bode well for his dynasty outlook.
Trade Value Equivalence
Personally, I prefer FantasyPros dynasty trade values. They may differ slightly from other sites, so these players may not be quite the same value of your preferred dynasty trade value chart. Still, this should give you a baseline of approximately what their value equates to.
Here are a handful of players and packages that are close to equal value of Russell Wilson. I have done my best to include players that fit rebuilding teams and win now teams, as there are many different team layouts in the dynasty world.
Single QB League
- Kenny Pickett
- Derek Carr
- Elijah Mitchell
- Devin Singletary
- Chase Brown
- Michael Thomas
- Terrace Marshall
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Tyler Boyd
- Luke Schoonmaker
- Mike Gesicki
- Gerald Everett
- Noah Fant
- Jerome Ford + Tank Dell
- Zamir White + DJ Chark
- Raheem Mostert + Allen Lazard
With Wilson’s value being so low in 1QB dynasty leagues, it was tough to put together packages that included meaningful players. He may be a better 1-for-1 trade candidate unless you are in a complete rebuild or want to take a chance on possible one-year producers (i.e. Zamir White and Raheem Mostert).
If you are a team in contention and can afford to spare Wilson, guys like Thomas, Beckham, and the Mostert/Lazard package are certainly enticing. They carry some risk (injury with the prior two and usage with the latter two), but could be league winning moves if they pan out.
If you are a rebuilding team looking to move off the aging QB but still need help at the position, Pickett could be an easy swap. Players like Marshall, Schoonmaker, and the Ford/Dell package are decent prospects, but unless you have a bona fide QB (Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, Burrow, etc.), I would rather just hold Wilson and hope he returns to form for a couple years.
Superflex League
- 2023 or 2024 Late First Round Pick
- 2023 AND 2024 Late Second Round Picks
- Miles Sanders
- Zach Charbonnet
- Treylon Burks
- Deebo Samuel
- Diontae Johnson
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Dalton Kincaid
- Dallas Goedert
- George Kittle
- Matthew Stafford + Brandin Cooks
- Alvin Kamara + Rondale Moore
- Roschon Johnson + Josh Downs
- Darren Waller + James Conner
This is where the trade value gets really interesting. There are so many different possibilities when shopping a QB in superflex leagues. If you are ready to compete this year and already have two locked and loaded QBs, guys like Sanders, Hopkins, Kittle, and the Waller/Conner package could be the piece(s) to put you over the top.
If you are rebuilding, sending an older QB to a contending team could net you a big jump start to your reset. One first round pick or two late seconds could get you a long-term plug and play starter or a couple of upside chances. Guys like Burks, Kincaid, and the Johnson/Downs package are nice pieces for a team that is a couple years away from being a serious threat.
When to Buy
Wilson is a tricky player to figure out for dynasty teams. There are reasons to believe he can be valuable for at least a couple more years. There are also reasons to believe his best days may be well behind him and his value won’t get any higher.
If I were a contending team in a 1QB league that desperately needed a starting quarterback, I would definitely take the chance on Wilson at such a low cost. While I wouldn’t move the two quarterbacks I listed (Carr and Pickett) to get him, I would absolutely be willing to send a young player like Chase Brown or Luke Schoonmaker to try and chase a championship for a year or two. Players of that level are easily replaceable in drafts and even sometimes waivers.
I am a little more weary to buy Wilson in a superflex league. The cost is so much higher that you would have to give up a good to great starter, multiple solid pieces, or valuable draft capital. If you happen to have a few extra draft picks at your disposal, I could get on board with the move. Otherwise, I would probably stick with what I have (assuming you have at least two starting quarterbacks) and hope for the best.
When to Sell
I honestly didn’t know which side of this I was on for Wilson’s dynasty value before doing a bit of research. Now, I am leaning towards the sell side. If you are a contender in a 1QB league and don’t need the extra QB, a guy like Michael Thomas or a combination of Raheem Mostert and Allen Lazard could be incredibly valuable depth with starter upside. In a rebuilding scenario, I like a couple of the young RBs and WRs you could get.
If you can afford to move him in superflex leagues, guys like Miles Sanders and George Kittle are immediate impacts for a contending team. Whereas, guys like Treylon Burks and Dalton Kincaid have a lot of future value compared to the immediate production. If you aren’t close to contending, the couple years that Wilson may have left will likely only hurt your draft capital.
I like Wilson at his ADP in redraft leagues, and a bounce back could definitely be in store. However, I think the value you can get for trading him away, especially in superflex leagues, outweighs what he may bring to your team.
Verdict: Sell
Do you agree? Are you buying or selling Russell Wilson in dynasty? Let us know! Jump in our Discord and join the discussion!
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