DraftKings Week 3 Main Slate Breakdown
Week 2 was a bloodbath. Saquon Barkley and Courtland Sutton are done for the season with torn ACLs. Drew Lock and Christian McCaffrey are looking at multi-week absences. Other guys, like Davante Adams, Raheem Mostert, and Will Fuller all missed time during their Week 2 game.
Related | Week 2 DraftKings Main Slate Recap
The core part of daily fantasy for most players is cash games: contests with a flat-payout structure across cashing positions. The strategy behind these games is simple: Maximize your expected points. This article will break down my favorite players of the week and discuss some lineup construction to figure out the best way to put your lineup in the top half of the standings.
In Week 3, we have the biggest Draftkings Main Slate possible; a full 13-game slate.
Byes: None
Thursday Night Football: MIA @ JAX
Sunday Night Football: GB @ NO
Monday Night Football: KC @ BAL
Main Slate Teams Vegas Breakdown:
Quarterback
This is a main slate missing the Week 2 Main Slate’s three top-priced QBs: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers. Instead, Russell Wilson ($7,300) is the top-priced guy, and it’s hard to argue it’s an unfair price. Wilson’s averaging 34.6 points through two games, and gets an appealing potential shootout matchup against the Cowboys in Week 3. The game boasts an incredible 56-point o/u, and as favorites, Russ should put up points.
A few hundred dollars lower, we can absolutely go back to Kyler Murray ($6,800). Murray is averaging 30.2 ppg in 2020. and gets a Detroit defense that hasn’t really stopped anybody yet. Murray has scored 18.7 and 15.1 points just with his legs in the first two weeks, making him one of the safer plays on the slate.
Josh Allen ($6,900) gets a mention in this spot again. He leads the slate in points per game with 35.3, but his price, comparatively low total, and matchup will likely have him underowned. If you play GPPs, you owe it to yourself to always have Allen exposure. My favorite GPP sleeper of the week is Matthew Stafford ($6,300). A place we can frequently find underowned value is the underdog QB in a projected shootout. Detroit’s 25-point implied total is middle-of-the-road, but if they’re going to keep up with Arizona, they’ll need to let Stafford sling it.
Pricing is tight this week and there aren’t many QBs that look like they offer cheap value. Justin Herbert ($5,900) gets a Panthers defense that allowed just 13 fantasy points in consecutive weeks to Derek Carr and Tom Brady, but both those guys found more success handing the ball off than throwing it. Carolina doesn’t have a recorded sack through two games, and Herbert’s lead back, Austin Ekeler, is better in the air than on the ground. Herbert had a more than solid debut in Week 2, putting up 26.2 points, could be a source of cheap points if you’re looking to pay up elsewhere in Week 3.
Running Back
The slate opens up a bit with the injuries to McCaffrey and Barkley. Ezekiel Elliott ($8,300) is the highest priced RB on the slate, but in a game Dallas is expected to throw a lot, it may be tough for him to quite live up to his salary with the number of targets they have. Because of the high total, though, he could make a profitable GPP option if he finds the end zone. The highest-priced back I’ll be considering in cash is Dalvin Cook ($7,600). Minnesota has given Cook just 13 carries and 2 targets per game through two weeks after handing him a big fat contract just before the start of the season. Tennessee gave up over 100 yards and a touchdown to James Robinson last week on just 16 carries. I think this is a spot Minnesota tries to get Cook, well, cooking.
However, it’s a few hundred dollars lower that I think we’ll find backs that present more value. I expect Jonathan Taylor ($7,000) to be a popular play, even on a $1,300 price increase from Week 2 after being fed 26 carries on 67% of the RB snaps in Indianapolis. The Jets run defense is actually quite stout. They allowed 135 yards on two carries to Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon this week, but just 47 yards on San Francisco’s other 27 carries on the night. For that reason, I’ll be fading Taylor in cash, as the chance of a dud is too high.
I do like Austin Ekeler ($6,800) in a solid matchup with Carolina. He should have room on the ground to run, and I see Los Angeles gameplanning him touches in the passing game to give Justin Herbert some easy looks. Joshua Kelley, of course, is a major concern after carrying the ball 23 times in Week 2, but Ekeler was more efficient on the ground and is the better player. James Conner ($6,700) alleviated concerns about Benny Snell taking his job, playing 77% of snaps and taking 16 carries for over 100 yards in Week 2. He gets a Houston defense that has allowed 396 rushing yards through two games. I like him in this spot as well, and I’d be surprised to see him highly owned.
Miles Sanders ($6,400) is my favorite RB of the slate for cash. He made his season debut last week with 77% of the snaps and 20 of 24 backfield carries. The Bengals allowed 210 yards on the ground to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt last week. Sanders should be in a position to eat, and is far too cheap for this spot and projected volume. Just below him is Kenyan Drake ($6,000). Drake is still the lead back in this backfield, and is primed for a big week. You can pair him with Murray to get complete exposure to this offense.
Of course, we have to talk about injury replacements. Dion Lewis ($5,300) assumes the starting role for the Giants. Against a stout San Francisco run defense, there are better options.
Mike Davis ($5,100) fills in for Christian McCaffrey and looks to inherit an every-down role. Davis racked up 8 receptions for 74 yards in Week 2 on just 33% of snaps, production that would pay off his inflated Week 3 salary. There’s no reason to think he won’t be involved in the passing game again, making him a fairly safe play.
Jerick McKinnon ($4,900) is the de facto starter in a week the 49ers will be missing Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman. like Davis, McKinnon is more than capable in the passing game. Pay attention to the pregame reports on the split between he and Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4,000), who isn’t the worst GPP dart throw.
Wide Receivers
NFL Target leader Deandre Hopkins ($7,900) is at the top of pricing this week. This spot backfired for Davante Adams last week (granted injuries played a role), but Hopkins is still a decent bet, if you can afford him. $900 down is NFL Receiving Yards leader Stefon Diggs ($7,000). Both players have seamlessly adjusted to their new teams and have immediately assumed feature roles. Diggs draws a tough matchup with Jalen Ramsey this week, so he may be more of a GPP play.
DK Metcalf ($6,500) will be my most expensive consideration in cash. For what this total is, I think that both Metcalf and Tyler Locket ($6,400) are underpriced. Lockett has out-targeted Metcalf 16-14 thusfar, but Metcalf is getting the more valuable targets, averaging 13.4 yards per target to Lockett’s 9.9.
It feels like a breakout for Michael Gallup ($5,500) is coming at some point. Seattle gave up a big game to Atlanta’s WR2, Calvin Ridley, in Week 1. This could be Gallup’s chance to break out in 2020.
Diontae Johnson ($5,400) is a smash plug, for me. He’s 4th in the NFL in targets, 11th in catches, 19th in yards, and the 32nd-priced WR on this slate. Ben Roethlisberger is targeting him early and often and he offers way too much value for just $5,400.
At $5,100, it’s tough to ignore Russell Gage‘s 21 targets on the season. Chicago has a duo of corners in stud Kyle Fuller and the promising rookie Jaylon Johnson, but Gage will get Buster Skrine in the slot, where he will have the best matchup of Atlanta’s WR trio.
Once again, there are a group of cheaper WRs we’ll need to dip into to fill out our lineup.
- Zach Pascal ($4,500) is playing a lot (81% of snaps last week), but that hasn’t translated into production. With Parris Campbell and Jack Doyle banged up, he could be in line for increased targets.
- N’Keal Harry ($4,200) has 18 targest through two games, including 12 last week. The former first-round pick has tons of potential, and if Cam consistently shows him this kind of volume, he’ll be a slate-winner some week.
- Curtis Samuel ($4,000) is on a $700 discount from Week 2. He got 8 targets in Week 1, and 4 carries in Week 2 after Christian McCaffrey left. It’s possible Samuel sees an increased role out of the backfield in Week 3.
- Adam Humphries ($3,900) has 14 targets through two games. He has a plus matchup in Minnesota this week. If A.J. Brown misses again, Humphries is a safe play.
- K.J. Hamler ($3,000) is a popular play this week after getting 7 targets in Courtland Sutton’s absence. I think Tim Patrick ($3,700) is the safer play.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller ($5,700) is 2nd in the NFL in targets. He’s priced lower than 26 wide receivers. It’s tough to pay this much for a tight end, but he’s well worth the price.
Logan Thomas ($3,700) hasn’t paid off yet, but as long as his price stays low, we should keeping going to him. He has 17 targets in two weeks with 8 in Week 1 and 9 in Week 2. Cleveland has allowed touchdowns to TEs in each of their first two games this season. The stars are aligned for a big Thomas game in Week 3.
At a similar price point, Mo Alie-Cox ($3,800) is coming off a 111-yard game in Week 2. He did it on just 6 targets, so the volume doesn’t make me confident in cash. However, as with Zach Pascal, the Colts could have a very concentrated passing game.
GPP option I like this week is Jordan Akins ($3,400). Akins has the athleticism to break a game open, both with is RAC ability and on jump balls in the end zone.
Defense/Special Teams
Generally, I’ll try to find three options at Defense at various price points, and plug the one I can afford after filling the other eight spots in my lineup. The priority here isn’t limiting points: all it takes is two touchdowns to drop a defense’s point total from 10 to 1. Sacks and turnovers are the money-makers here. In this position, we want to target mismatches between pass rush and offensive line.
The premium option this week is the Steelers ($4,000) again. They came up with seven sacks last week. Houston has the worst adjusted sack rate by Football Outsiders. This may be my top-owned defense in GPPs, and I’ll be trying my hardest to get up to them in cash.
My mid-priced option is the 49ers ($3,500). I typically like to spend less than this on defenses. However, pricing is tight this week and most of the best matchups are expensive. Daniel Jones has a tendency to turn the ball over, so there’s big upside here.
The Jets ($2,000) are a min-priced damage reduction play. Defenses score the least points per dollar of any position, so there’s value to spending the minimum amount you can on it. Philip Rivers has a tendency to turn the ball over, and is a bit of a statue in the pocket. Indianapolis protects the QB well, but it won’t take much to pay off.
