DraftKings Week 15 Main Slate Breakdown
The core part of daily fantasy for most players is cash games: contests with a flat-payout structure across cashing positions. The strategy behind these games is simple: Maximize your expected points. This article will break down my favorite players of the week and discuss some lineup construction to figure out the best way to put your lineup in the top half of the standings in Week 15.
We have a two-game Saturday slate that robs us of a couple top QBs this week, but we’ll have to make due.
Thursday Night Football: LAC @ LVR
Saturday Football: BUF @ DEN, CAR @ GB
Sunday Night Football: CLE @ NYG
Monday Night Football: PIT @ CIN
Main Slate Teams Vegas Breakdown:
Quarterback
Quarterback is a spot i typically like to pay up for in cash, within reason. Quarterbacks score the most points per dollar of any position, so they’re the best investment you can make. At the same time, quarterbacks touch the ball on every play. This means volume isn’t an issue, and cheaper quarterbacks in good matchups can provide ROI while saving salary.
My favorite play of the last few weeks, Aaron Rodgers, is off the main slate this week. The only QB that’s been as good as Rodgers in 2020, Patrick Mahomes, has a disastrous matchup with the Saints. That makes the top of pricing pretty shallow. My premium QB pick of the week is Lamar Jackson ($7,500), who has found his 2019 form recently. Jackson has 218 rushing yards his last two weeks, leading to 30.8 DK ppg. Up next is a disaster of a Jacksonville defense that he shouldn’t have problems with.
I’m still not sold on Taysom Hill ($6,000) as a QB. At this point, however, the results don’t lie. In four starts, he has 18.5+ points in each. Kansas City has an offense that should keep Hill in a positive gamescript for most of the game. I’m still weary of Hill in cash; KC has a ballhawking secondary that can force any QB into a floor game. But this isn’t a great slate at QB, and Hill is a valid play at his price. ***Post-Publication Note*** Drew Brees ($6,000) will start this game instead of Taysom Hill. Brees is a valid play in what should be a shootout. Consensus Sportsline odds have increased the total to 52.5 since the news.
The highest implied total on the slate belongs to the Indianapolis Colts, but Philip Rivers ($5,900) is just the 12th priced QB on the slate. Rivers went for 285 yards and 2 TDs two weeks ago in this matchup in Houston. He’s been a generally high-floor, low ceiling play in recent weeks, scoring between 16 and 23 points in each of the past five weeks. However, he has passing totals of 288, 295, and 295 yards in three of those games. If he can get himself over the 300 yard park, he should be a solid value in Week 15.
Running Back
Running back is the core of a cash lineup. Volume is king in cash games and RB is a position we frequently need to invest to get it. Most cash lineup construction puts a RB in the flex spot.
We’ll start with the obvious: Derrick Henry ($9,500) rewarded owners last week with 215 yards and 2 TDs. This week he has another prime matchup with Detroit. This is a week we can afford him as well, with solid options at lower prices.
Jonathan Taylor ($7,200) gets a $1,400 price increase after running wild over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 14. He also had success in this matchup the prior week, with 91 yards on just 13 carries. He’s still playing less than 60% of snaps, which gives him a lower floor than I normally would like. But Houston hemorrhages yards on the ground, giving up 113 yards on just 11 carries to David Montgomery last week. If Taylor sees 20 carries like he did in Week 14, he will produce.
J.K. Dobbins ($5,900) played on Monday Night, so his price was set before he led the Baltimore backfield in snaps (62%), touches (13), and rushing yards (53). This is a value spot I like to take advantage of, especially in this matchup.
Last week, J.D. McKissick ($5,700) Chalk Week didn’t go as well as most hoped. I’m optimistic enough to go back to him in Week 15 though, despite Peyton Barber playing nearly 50% of snaps. McKissic was effective, running for 68 yards on just 11 carries. Against the Seahawks, Washington should be forced to throw more, which should benefit McKissic’s receiving skills.
Ronal Jones landed on the COVID list after Week 14. That figures to make Leonard Fournette ($4,500) the lead back in the Tampa Bay backfield, but Fournette was a healthy scratch last week, with LeSean McCoy ($4,000) playing 31% of snaps. This is a situation to monitor, and at their price, both could return value in an even split.
Wide Receiver
Targets are king at the WR position. Generally speaking, you’re looking for ~1.5 targets per $1,000 of salary. Touchdowns are variable and hard to predict; in cash, the process is all about finding volume.
Tyreek Hill ($8,800) touched the ball just four times against Miami, but still managed to put up 26.1 points. I’d expect him to return to his previous volume in Week 15.
Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300) paid dividends last week with 10 receptions and 119 yards. Deebo Samuel is now out for the season. Aiyuk had 50 targets in his past four games and figures to remain the focal point of the San Francisco passing offense. Staying with this offense, Kendrick Bourne ($4,100) steps into the WR2 role. Bourne played 89% of snaps last week and saw 7 targets; if he repeats those numbers, he’ll have a good shot at meeting value.
T.Y. Hilton ($5,500) has regained his top spot in the Indianapolis pecking order, leading the team in targets each of the last two games. Two weeks ago he had 8 receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown against Houston. He seems to have developed a rapport with Philip Rivers and should be reliable moving forward.
Value Plays:
- Darnell Mooney ($3,900) seems to have seized the WR2 role in Chicago. He played the same number of snaps as Allen Robinson in Week 14. He returned value on a TD last week, but his volume has been down.
- Lynn Bowden ($3,600) will be the chalk of the week. He led Dolphins skill position players in snaps at 71% in Week 14, catching seven of his nine targets.
- Michael Gallup ($3,500) led the Cowboys in targets last week. He caught just two of the six, keeping his price down for Week 15. San Francisco isn’t a great matchup, so he comes with more risk than Bowden or Mooney. But he makes for an excellent pivot off of them in GPPs, where Bowden in particular will be highly owned.
Tight End
Tight End is a position it’s generally best to spend down at. Besides defense, tight end is the lowest-scoring position on DraftKings, and their scoring is more TD-dependent than wide receivers.
One of the reasons we may want to use value plays at WR is to pay up for Travis Kelce ($8,000). Kelce’s 22.0 DK ppg is behind just four skill position players on the slate: Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, and Tyreek Hill. Kelce is currently in the middle of the best fantasy TE season of all time, on pace to pass #2 (his own 2018 season) by 42 DK points. He has 24+ points in five of his last six games. Kelce is the exception to not paying up for TEs.
T.J. Hockensen ($5,200) continues to put forth solid outings. He got 11 targets last week and put up 6-43-1.He gets an upgrade in matchup with a Titans defense that is generous to opposing passing games.
I’m a big fan of Irv Smith’s ($3,600) talent, so this may be a sucker’s play. But with Kyle Rudolph hobbled, it’s Smith’s time to shine, and he had a solid 4-63-1 line last week in a rough game for the Minnesota offense. The Bears had allowed 60 yards or a TD to a TE in six straight games prior to a bit of a dud by Jordan Akins last week.
Defense/Special Teams
Generally, I’ll try to find a few options at DST at various price points, and plug the one I can afford after filling the other eight spots in my lineup. The priority here isn’t limiting points. All it takes is two touchdowns to drop a defense’s point total from 10 to 1. Sacks and turnovers are the money-makers here. In this position, we want to target mismatches between pass rush and offensive line.
If you’re inclined to pay $4.5k for a defense, the Rams ($4,500) make an appearance in this article’s weekly “Team Playing The Jets” spot. The Seahawks were a bit of a letdown with just 5 points in this spot last week, but the Rams defense is a different beast. I’m still not sure they can be projected for 10+ points though, which would be my baseline goal for a defense this expensive.
There’s just one other defense that sticks out to me, and that’s the Washington Football Team ($2,600). I like targeting west coast teams travelling east. I like playing teams with matchup advantages in the trenches. Washington checks both those boxes, and at just $2,600, can afford to give up points and still return value.
