DraftKings Week 14 Main Slate Breakdown
The core part of daily fantasy for most players is cash games: contests with a flat-payout structure across cashing positions. The strategy behind these games is simple: Maximize your expected points. This article will break down my favorite players of the week and discuss some lineup construction to figure out the best way to put your lineup in the top half of the standings.
Byes are over, meaning we are back to 13-game Main Slates in Week 14.
Thursday Night Football: NE @ LAR
Sunday Night Football: PIT @ BUF
Monday Night Football: BAL @ CLE
Main Slate Teams Vegas Breakdown:
Quarterback
Quarterback is a spot i typically like to pay up for in cash, within reason. Quarterbacks score the most points per dollar of any position, so they’re the best investment you can make. At the same time, quarterbacks touch the ball on every play. This means volume isn’t an issue, and cheaper quarterbacks in good matchups can provide ROI while saving salary.
My Russell Wilson ($7,900) pick didn’t work out so well last week, but I think we can come back to him in Week 14. He gets a Jets defense that allowed 381 yards and 3 TDs to Derek Carr last week. In three weeks since cutting Pierre Desir during their bye, New York is giving up 319 passing yards per game and has allowed 8 passing touchdowns.
My Aaron Rodgers ($7,500) pick did work well last week, as Rodgers threw for another three touchdowns and came 5 yards short of the 300-yard bonus. Detroit allowed a huge game to Deshaun Watson on Thanksgiving and solid performance by Mitchell Trubisky last week. In Rodgers’ first game against Detroit this year, he threw for only 240 yards as Green Bay attacked primarily on the ground, rushing 35 times for 259 yards. In fact, Rodgers’ 19.2 points was his second-lowest output on the season, but if that’s his floor, he’s a near cash-lock.
I’m also a fan of Justin Herbert ($6,800) this week. Herbert gets a Falcons defense travelling across the country. Atlanta has kept QBs to just 210 yards per game since their bye, but that’s against Taysom Hill twice and Derek Carr. Prior to the bye, Atlanta had allowed QBs to hit the 300+ yard bonus in eight of nine games. I like Herbert to bounce back from a dismal outing against New England in Week 13.
My value pick if spending down this week is Gardner Minshew ($5,600). He gets a Titans defense that allowed a massive game to Baker Mayfield last week, who threw for 334 yards and four first-half touchdowns. Minshew threw for 339 yards and three touchdowns when he played this defense in Week 2, and that was in Nashville. At home in Week 14, I think he has potential for a solid game.
Running Back
Running back is the core of a cash lineup. Volume is king in cash games and RB is a position we frequently need to invest to get it. Most cash lineup construction puts a RB in the flex spot.
Near the top of pricing, Derrick Henry ($8,700) sees his price take a $500 hit from last week after being stifled by Cleveland. Henry’s downside was on display and is why I rarely even consider him in cash. He needs both the 100+ yard bonus and a score to approach 3x value, especially at this price. This is a matchup he’ll have a good opportunity to do that against Jacksonville, though. The Jaguars have allowed 100+ yards to Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb in consecutive weeks and have allowed the third-most rushing yards on the season overall.
Another player typically too volatile to roster in cash, Aaron Jones ($7,600) gets a Lions defense that he excelled with in his first matchup with this season. Jones had 236 total yards and three touchdowns in Week 2 and could be in line for another big week. The Bears rushed for three TDs last week, bringing Detroit’s total to a league-worst 20 rushing touchdowns allowed on the season.
Two higher-floor players I like to anchor my lineup this week are James Robinson ($7,300) and Austin Ekeler ($7,000). Ekeler hit his floor with just 10.4 points against New England, but he did have 9 targets after getting 16 the week prior. His role in the passing game makes him an appealing play in any format. Meanwhile, Robinson has seen fewer than 24 carries + targets in just one game since Week 6. With Chris Thompson out, the receiving game is all his, with six targets in each of the last two games.
A value play down pricing is Melvin Gordon ($5,600). Gordon split carries 15-14 with Phillip Lindsay, but out-rushed Lindsay 131-26. Carolina is susceptible on the ground, giving up 192 to Ronald Jones in Week 10. Gordon makes for a somewhat risky play due to the timeshare, but if he gets 15 carries, he’ll have a shot at a big game.
The chalk play of the slate will likely be J.D. McKissic ($4,900). McKissic has had a role in the Washington receiving game all year, but with Antonio Gibson banged up, should step into a bigger workload. Last week, McKissic played 74% of snaps last week and caught 10 passes. He may not have major upside due to a tough matchup, but should have a solid floor.
Wide Receiver
Targets are king at the WR position. Generally speaking, you’re looking for ~1.5 targets per $1,000 of salary. Touchdowns are variable and hard to predict; in cash, the process is all about finding volume.
The top two options on the slate are Davante Adams ($9,300) and Tyreek Hill ($8,500). Both are essentially matchup-proof. Adams has 19+ points in 7 straight games. He left his first matchup with Detroit early with an injury, which is about the only thing that can stop him this season. Hill is averaging 14 targets *per game* over his last four. Miami has an excellent dup of corners in Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. Neither have the quickness to match up well with Hill, though. Hill dominated a similarly great but bigger corner in Carlton Davis two weeks ago. If we pay down at RB with Gordon and/or McKissic, either one of these WRs makes for an excellent cash play.
We’re more likely to find usable WRs in the mid-range of pricing. The Panthers WR room is one to keep an eye on. D.J. Moore suffered an injury in Week 13 and then landed on the COVID list, as did Curtis Samuel. That would leave Robby Anderson ($6,200) as the unquestioned top WR on the team and a great bet for 12+ targets. If Samuel ($5,200) is active for the game, he makes for an excellent value as well.
Jamison Crowder ($5,400) hasn’t seen more than 7 targets in a game since Week 6. However, with Sam Darnold healthy and a matchup that should see the Jets throw the ball often, I expect him to hit double digits in Week 14. Denzel Mims will miss the game due to a family emergency, further condensing the Jets’ passing game. At the same price point, rookie Brandon Aiyuk ($5,400) has a touchdown in three straight games, averaging 11 targets per game.
Chasing $1,500 salary increases is not a game I typically like to play. However, Keke Coutee ($5,000) still feels like he can hit value after his 8-catch, 141-yard showing in Week 13. The Bears have allowed big games through the air the last two games. They’re particularly vulnerable from the slot, where Coutee will avoid Jaylon Johnson and Kyle Fuller. Coutee saw 9 targets last week and should be in line for a similar workload here.
Value Plays
- With Denzel Mims missing from the Jets, Breshad Perriman ($3,900) should see solid volume in a plus matchup.
- Michael Gallup ($3,800) led the Cowboys in targets on Monday Night Football. His target share is volatile but this is too cheap for him.
- Houston is vulnerable on the ground. Why is that relevant here? Cordarelle Patterson ($3,600) is a WR on DraftKings but took 10 carries for 59 yards and a touchdown against Detroit.
- The Jaguars passing attack is too volatile to rely on anyone, but rookie Collin Johnson ($3,600) has 14 targets in his last two games and turned them into 162 yards and a touchdown.
- K.J. Hamler ($3,000) has been mentioned in this spot before. At minimum price, is a valid punt play after seeing 5 targets and 2 carries last week.
Tight End
Tight End is a position it’s generally best to spend down at. Besides defense, tight end is the lowest-scoring position on DraftKings, and their scoring is more TD-dependent than wide receivers.
I don’t think we can pay $6,800+ for a tight end in cash this week, so the top player for me is T.J. Hockenson ($5,000). Hockenson has at least 9.3 points in every game but one, a floor you accept at tight end. Dallas Goedert returned a solid outing of 5 receptions for 66 yards in this matchup last week. The Lions’ passing game is extremely condensed right now between Hockenson and Marvin Jones, and will be expected to throw quite a bit against Green Bay.
Hunter Henry ($4,400) had a rare down week last week. I’m fine throwing out the NE game and going back to him as a mid-priced play,
There are plenty of punt TEs this week that offer solid upside
- Cole Kmet $2,900) has played 70% of snaps in three straight weeks and saw season highs in targets (7) and receptions (5) last week against Detroit. We could be on the verge of a breakout for the rookie.
- Darren Waller had a massive game against the Jets last week, so I’d like to attack that defense again. However, the TE room is muddy in Seattle, to say the least. Both Jacob Hollister ($3,100) and Will Dissly ($2,900) played 39 snaps and shared a role in the passing game, with 4 and 5 targets, respectively. Either make for a decent punt play.
- Jordan Akins ($2,900) didn’t get the production boost we hoped in the first week of Will Fuller’s absence. However, he did play 70% of snaps for the first time since Week 2. The Bears have allowed 60 yards or a TD to a TE in six straight games, so Akins should have room to work.
Defense/Special Teams
Generally, I’ll try to find three options at DST at various price points, and plug the one I can afford after filling the other eight spots in my lineup. The priority here isn’t limiting points. All it takes is two touchdowns to drop a defense’s point total from 10 to 1. Sacks and turnovers are the money-makers here. In this position, we want to target mismatches between pass rush and offensive line.
The Saints ($3,800) check in as the top raw play of the slate, getting rookie Jalen Hurts’ debut NFL start. I don’t think there’s enough value else where to merit spending this much on a defense in cash but they will be a viable (albeit somewhat popular) play in GPPs.
There’s no reason to spend more than $3k on a defense this week in cash, because that’s where the Seahawks ($3,000) check in. The Raiders had 9 points against this Jets defense last week. The Jets have turned the ball over in seven straight games, and have five turnovers and six sacks allowed in their last two.
The bottom option is the Cowboys ($2,400). Brandon Allen has thrown two interceptions and taken seven sacks in his first two starts. This feels like a defense that should cost $500 more, so I’ll be glad to plug them in at $400 above minimum.
