DraftKings Week 13 Main Slate Breakdown
The core part of daily fantasy for most players is cash games: contests with a flat-payout structure across cashing positions. The strategy behind these games is simple: Maximize your expected points. This article will break down my favorite players of the week and discuss some lineup construction to figure out the best way to put your lineup in the top half of the standings.
We’re missing ten teams from the DraftKings Week 13 main slate, with the Washington-Pittsburgh being rescheduled to Monday afternoon after playing Wednesday.
Bye: CAR & TB
Sunday Night Football: DEN @ KC
Monday Night Football: WAS @ PIT & BUF @ SF
Tuesday Night Football: BAL @ DAL
Main Slate Teams Vegas Breakdown:
Quarterback
Quarterback is a spot i typically like to pay up for in cash, within reason. Quarterbacks score the most points per dollar of any position, so they’re the best investment you can make. At the same time, quarterbacks touch the ball on every play. This means volume isn’t an issue, and cheaper quarterbacks in good matchups can provide ROI while saving salary.
After a metoric start to the season, Russell Wilson ($7,700) has cooled off, with his three worst performances of the season coming in the last three weeks. This could be a get-right spot for him, as he gets a Giants defense that has allowed 300+ yards or multiple touchdowns in three of their last five games, with the other two being against Carson Wentz and Brandon Allen. Russ is bound to return to early-season form at some point. At home against a defense traveling across the country is a prime spot to do it.
Aaron Rodgers ($6,800) figures to be a popular play, checking most of the boxes we look for in a cash QB. He hasn’t had a sub-23 point game since the Tampa Bay fiasco. He’s hit the 300-yard bonus in 3-of-4 games, and is averaging 3.3 TDs in his last six. I’m a bit worried about the matchup though. Philadelphia limited Russell Wilson to 230 yards and a single TD, and haven’t allowed a single 300-yard passer all season. Of course, Rodgers made extraordinarily easy work of an otherwise impressive Bears defense last weekend, so it may not matter.
Two intriguing plays this week are Kirk Cousins ($6,400) and Ryan Tannehill ($6,200). Minnesota and Tennessee have the two highest totals on the slate at the time of this writing, at 30.5 and 29.5 points. What typically shies us away from these two is that their running games often cap their upside, but I think you can pair both with their RB to get exposure to the entire offense. Cousins-Cook is my preferred play in the better matchup, as you get a better chance of double-dipping with a receiving touchdown . Tannehill-Henry, however, is $500 cheaper and plays an offense that is more likely to keep pace.
There isn’t a ton of value at the lower prices. One play I’m interested in if he plays is Daniel Jones ($5,500). Jones got knocked out of last week’s game, but was averaging 19 ppg in the four before that. He’ll have to throw to keep up with Seattle, and their defense should allow him to.
Running Back
Running back is the core of a cash lineup. Volume is king in cash games and RB is a position we frequently need to invest to get it. Most cash lineup construction puts a RB in the flex spot.
Dalvin Cook ($9,500) hurt his owners last week, missing some time with injury, though he wasn’t effective before that point. Jacksonville allowed 200 yards on the ground to Cleveland last week, a matchup Cook should be salivating at.
Austin Ekeler ($7,100) hit the ground running in his return from injury in Week 12, getting 14 carries and 16 targets. Cardinals’ RBs combined for seven catches last week against New England, so they can be attacked that way. Ekeler had 11 targets in Justin Herbert’s debut, Ekeler’s last full game before injury. If he has this role in the passing game, he’s a smash in cash.
Alvin Kamara ($7,000) has to be mentioned at this price, which is $2,200 lower than it was two weeks ago. He’s this low because Taysom Hill has crippled his production; he has just three targets in two games. Atlanta is a defense he can run roughshod over so I’ll have GPP exposure to him, but he can’t be trusted in cash with this role.
A lowkey play I like a lot is Miles Sanders ($6,700). Before last week, he had 15 carries and 5 targets in each of his last two games. He got just 9 opportunities in Week 12, but played his usual 60% of snaps, so I’m comfortable disregarding his down week. Green Bay allowed 103 yards on just 11 carries to David Montgomery, and he added 5 receptions and a touchdown. They’ve also allowed massive weeks to Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, and Ronald Jones. Mike Pettine’s rush defense consists of hoping the offense gets a big lead and opponents abandon the run. If Sanders gets 20 touches in this matchup, he could be a slate-winner.
Speaking of David Montgomery ($5,500), he gets a Detroit defense that can be beaten. Montgomery has played 80% of snaps in six-of-seven games and has at least 16 carries + targets in all of them. Nyheim Hines ($5,300) got ten targets last week with Jonathan Taylor ($5,700) on the COVID list. Whoever the lead back is against Houston is a viable play.
Another potential value filler is Damien Harris ($5,200). Harris is emerging in the NE backfield, playing a season-high 64% of snaps against Arizona. This week he gets a Chargers defense that allowed 141 yards to Devin Singletary and Zack Moss and is 29th in ypc against this year.
Wide Receivers
Targets are king at the WR position. Generally speaking, you’re looking for ~1.5 targets per $1,000 of salary. Touchdowns are variable and hard to predict; in cash, the process is all about finding volume.
This is another week that I don’t think we can afford to pay up for WR, but if value at RB opens up, Davante Adams ($9,000) is always a viable cash play. He has nine TDs in his last six games, with at least one in every contest. He averages 26.9 DK ppg, a full six points above any other WR on the slate.
Adam Thielen ($7,300) has been surprisingly hit-or-miss this year. In his five hits, he has averages 27.8 ppg with every outing above 20. In five misses, he averages 8.8, with every outing below 15. Jacksonville should be a defense that we should expect a hit against.
Davante Parker ($6,400) has strung together a couple 18+ point performances coming into Week 13. He has 23 targets in those two weeks, including 14 last week against the Jets. I expect him to keep getting fed against Cincinnati.
The highest-owned WR in cash games is certain to be Brandin Cooks ($5,600). Cooks was getting an excellent target share playing #1b to Will Fuller. Now he’s the lead dog. The matchup isn’t great, but if he sees 10-12 targets, it won’t matter. Similarly, Keke Coutee ($3,500) is a prime punt option. The third WR in this offense is fifth-round pick Isaiah Coulter, who hasn’t seen the field this season.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($4,900) is in an excellent spot on the other side of the ball. Pittman has 7+ targets in three-of-four games and is playing 80%+ snaps. Philip Rivers does like to spread the ball around, giving seven different players 3+ targets two weeks ago against Green Bay, but Pittman is emerging as one of his favorites. He caught just two of his nine targets last week, so hopefully Rivers keeps the faith in the rookie.
Denzel Mims ($4,100) is another name I expect to be highly owned. He has 7+ targets in three straight games and is playing 90% of snaps. I mentioned him last week as a guy who would be overmatched by Miami’s outside corners. Las Vegas doesn’t have the same worry; he should excel here.
Darnell Mooney ($3,400), similar to Pittman, is coming off a nine-target game and has a prime matchup. He’s played 85% of snaps in four straight games and is the established #2 on the Bears offense. If you’re playing studs-and-duds, Mooney makes for great filler.
Tight Ends
Tight End is a position it’s generally best to spend down at. besides defense, Tight End is the lowest-scoring position on DraftKings, and their scoring is more TD-dependent.
Hunter Henry ($4,800) makes my list again after seeing 10 targets last week. He’s as consistent as any TE on the salte and has 13+ points in three straight games.
Dallas Goedert ($4,300) has back-to-back games with 5+ receptions, 70+ yards, and 1 TD. He’s played 100% of snaps in those games. Zach Ertz is practicing, and if he returns, Goedert’s projections fall. If Ertz is out as expected though, Goedert will be the most popular play on the slate.
Mike Gesicki ($4,200) is also seeing consistent usage, with 5 targets in three straight games. This week, he gets a Cincinnati defense that allowed a 6-129-1 line to Evan Engram.
Jordan Akins ($2,900) is another Houston pass-catcher who gets an increased chance at relevance in Will Fuller’s absence. His snap count is worrying, at just 46% last week, but offers high upside if his role does increase.
Defense/Special Teams
Generally, I’ll try to find three options at Defense at various price points, and plug the one I can afford after filling the other eight spots in my lineup. The priority here isn’t limiting points. All it takes is two touchdowns to drop a defense’s point total from 10 to 1. Sacks and turnovers are the money-makers here. In this position, we want to target mismatches between pass rush and offensive line.
The Dolphins ($4,400) shouldn’t be played in cash; there’s no reason to spend this much on a defense on a tight slate. In GPPS, they make for an intriguing option against a Bengals offense that will be starting Brandon Allen again.
The Lions ($2,500) get a Mitch Trubisky-led Bears offense. Matt Patricia’s firing could spark a positive reaction from the players, as former players have indicated Patricia wasn’t well-liked. The Lions have four+ points in every game since Week 3.
At near-minimum, we have the Jets ($2,100) again. The DST has 8+ points in back-to-back outings and get a Raiders offense that was abysmal last week.
