DraftKings Week 12 Main Slate Breakdown
I hope everybody had a happy (and profitable) Thanksgiving. We’ve got a loaded (and bye-less) Week 12 ahead of us. Let’s dive into some daily fantasy
The core part of daily fantasy for most players is cash games: contests with a flat-payout structure across cashing positions. The strategy behind these games is simple: Maximize your expected points. This article will break down my favorite players of the week and discuss some lineup construction to figure out the best way to put your lineup in the top half of the standings.
In Week 12, we zero teams on bye: that means we’re just missing the primetime games from the Main Slate. Of the 12 games this week, 3 have a total of at least 53 points, with four more at least 48.5, so there should be plenty of points to be had.
Thursday Football: HOU @ DET & WAS @ DAL
Sunday Night Football: CHI @ GB
Monday Night Football: SEA @ PHI
Main Slate Teams Vegas Breakdown:
Quarterback
Quarterback is a spot i typically like to pay up for in cash, within reason. Quarterbacks score the most points per dollar of any position, so they’re the best investment you can make. At the same time, quarterbacks touch the ball on every play. This means volume isn’t an issue, and cheaper quarterbacks in good matchups can provide ROI while saving salary.
Kyler Murray ($8,200) is again this week the top raw play on the slate. He has multiple TDs in every game this season and 3+ in 7/10. This week he has a New England defense that has fallen to dead last in overall DVOA. Murray is averaging 30.2 DK PPG and is always a valid consideration in cash. Something to pay attention to: Murray suffered a shoulder injury last Sunday and has been a limited participant in practice this week. That adds some uncertainty, which could mean limited effectiveness or more rushing attempts.
Josh Allen ($7,600) quarterbacks the offense with the highest implied total on the slate. The Chargers haven’t allowed 250 yards to a passer since before their Week 6 bye, but the QBs they’ve played in that span haven’t been a murderer’s row: Joe Flacco, rookie Tua Tagovailoa, Derek Carr, Drew Lock, and Gardner Minshew. Allen shouldn’t have as much issue moving the ball as those guys.
Taysom Hill ($6,200) is sure to garner a lot of attention even with a $1,600 price increase after scoring 25pts in his debut as a starter. Count me among his doubters, though. I think his passing stats were misleading and he looked uncomfortable when dropping back. Against a defense better than Atlanta’s, I question his ability to meet value.
There’s a good bit of value at the bottom of pricing I like. The highest total on the slate is in Atlanta for the Falcons-Raiders game. The two quarterbacks there are priced below $6,000, in Matt Ryan ($5,900) and Derek Carr ($5,700). I think both are viable cash plays due to the two defenses being poor defending the pass: The Raiders are 18th defending the pass and the Falcons are 26th. I slightly prefer Ryan due to the Raiders’ tendency to lean on the running game in the red zone, but Carr has big potential to hit the 300-yard bonus.
Running Back
Running back is the core of a cash lineup. Volume is king in cash games and RB is a position we frequently need to invest to get it. Most cash lineup construction puts a RB in the flex spot.
Dalvin Cook ($9,500) is hard to call a value at his price, but he’s unquestionably the top raw play on the slate. In his last seven games, he has 22 carries in six, 100+ yards rushing in five, and ten touchdowns. He only sees around ~4 targets per game, which isn’t as much as I’d like to see from a guy who costs this much, but in a solid matchup, he provides a good foundation of a cash lineup. Cook averages 28.7 DK ppg, which is 3x value even at his inflated price.
Especially this late in the season, I like to target RBs coming off of big price decreases. Veteran players’ roles don’t really change at this point, so it’s usually an overreaction to a poor game or upcoming matchup. That’s why I like Alvin Kamara ($8,200), who is coming off a $1,100 drop from Week 11. The reason for the decrease is likely is lack of a role in the passing game with Taysom Hill under center. Kamara was targeted just once after averaging 9 targets/game in his previous five outings. There’s some risk here; Kamara doesn’t carry it enough to warrant this price without his receiving game role. I prefer to wait a week and see if it continues before panicking. Kamara is a valid RB1 with $1,300 savings from Cook.
A range I’m most likely to target is around $7,000. One such player I like is Josh Jacobs ($7,200). Jacobs has 80% of the Las Vegas backfield carries on the season, and in the last four weeks, is averaging 21 rushes, including five red-zone rushes, per game. In a solid matchup with a high total, he’s a high-floor play. Another player is Nick Chubb ($7,100). Chubb has 39 carries for 240 yards and a TD in two games since his return from injury. Jacksonville isn’t a defense that he’ll have too much trouble with, and doesn’t have an offense that will force Cleveland into a negative gamescript. You can play both these guys, one as your RB1, or pair with Cook or Kamara if we pay down elsewhere.
In the middle of pricing, Kareem Hunt ($5,600) in the same backfield as Chubb has the potential to meet value. Hunt has maintained a 50%+ snap share in the two game since Chubb’s return. With a 27.75-point implied total, there’s enough production to go around in Cleveland. I liked Gus Edwards ($5,200) more when he was $4,000 on Thanksgiving, but if he’s alone in this backfield, he’s tough to ignore, even in a poor matchup. Edwards rushed 16 times for 87 yards and a touchdown in the first BAL-PIT game, and J.K. Dobbins added 113 yards on 15 carries. Edwards with the backfield to himself is a safe play in cash.
Another player with a share of a backfield with a high total is Zack Moss ($4,800). The Bills have the highest implied team total on the slate. Moss has seen a (slight) majority of the offensive snaps in each of Buffalo’s last three games. There is a lot of value in the mid-range at WR this week, so Moss could be a great way to get exposure to a high total and fit other guys in.
At the minimum price is Brian Hill ($4,000). Todd Gurley and Qadree Ollison both missed Wednesday’s practice. If both are out on Sunday, Hill becomes a lock in cash.
Wide Receivers
Targets are king at the WR position. Generally speaking, you’re looking for ~1.5 targets per $1,000 of salary. Touchdowns are variable and hard to predict; in cash, the process is all about finding volume.
The top of pricing this week is pretty bare, depending on how you feel about the WR/CB matchups. DeAndre Hopkins will get 2019 DPoY Stephon Gilmore, Tyreek Hill has the #1 DVOA Buccaneers defense, and Stefon Diggs will see a lot of Casey Heyward. All of those guys are options in GPPs because of their ability go off whenever, but there may be safer options in cash. One such option is Keenan Allen ($8,000), who will avoid Tredavious White since White rarely travels into the slot. Allen has 20+ points in four-of-five games on 9.6 targets per game and has scored in four straight. We’re unlikely to be able to afford him, but he’s worth a mention if you want a contrarian build.
Julio Jones ($6,500) is coming off a $1,000 price decrease from a game he left with an injury. Julio has disappointed a lot of fantasy owners this year but if he’s healthy he’s simply too cheap. He and Calvin Ridley have been limited in practice this week (and Hayden Hurst has been out). There could be value to be had in the Atlanta receiving options depending on who plays.
Adam Thielen was placed on the COVID list this week. That makes Justin Jefferson ($6,300) the unquestioned top WR in the offense and a solid play at his price. Jefferson has exceeded five targets just three times this season; a reason I’m normally hesitant on him. Without Thielen though, he should see double-digits.
There’s a trio of players coming off Monday Night Football performances that should have raised their prices.
- Cooper Kupp’s ($6,400) 11-145 performance isn’t reflected in his $100 price decrease.
- Robert Woods ($5,800) is in a similar boat, with a $200 price decrease after his 12-145-1 on Monday Night. The big question is who Jason Verrett will spend most of his time on; many are betting Woods, which makes Kupp the better play, to me. Woods will also see more Richard Sherman.
- Antonio Brown ($5,700) was targeted 13 times to lead the Buccaneers. This is the first player I’ve recommended from TB-KC, which may be a mistake, since there are certain to be points. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are $400 and $300 higher are in play as well, since any one of the trio can go off, but I think we can trust the last two weeks of usage on Brown and rely on him in this matchup.
Cole Beasley ($5,500) checks all the boxes for me. John Brown has been ruled out of Sunday’s game, so Beasley – coming off an 11-109-1 line – should see another big workload.
It’s going to be impossible to fit in all these players with our high-priced RBs, so some value fillers are needed.
- Jakeem Grant ($3,700) gets a Jets defense that has been extremely generous. He has a red-zone look in each of the last three games.
- K.J. Hamler ($3,500) has **26** targets over his last three games and scored 11 ppg over that span. You’ll take that at his price, even in a less-than-ideal matchup.
- Denzel Mims ($3,500) warrants mentioning as a guy playing 90% of snaps for the Jets. He’s seen eight targets each of the last two weeks. I do think he will be overmatched by Miami’s outside corners, so there are better punt options.
- Gabriel Davis ($3,000) figures to be in line for an increased workload in John Brown’s absence. When Brown missed Week 7, Davis played 95% of snaps. He caught one ball in that game, so he’s far from a sure thing, but you don’t get sure things at minimum price.
- Andy Isabella ($3,000) figures to fill in for Larry Fitzgerald after Fitz landed on the COVID list this week.
Tight Ends
Tight End is a position it’s generally best to spend down at. besides defense, Tight End is the lowest-scoring position on DraftKings, and their scoring is more TD-dependent.
Darren Waller ($6,000) is a guy I’m going to try extremely hard to get up to in cash. The Falcons do not defend tight ends well. I don’t think I’ll make it to him but he’s a must in ATL-LV gamestack lineups.
Hunter Henry ($4,800) is another guy I like (what is this, Week 10?). Buffalo is quietly very poor against TEs, they just haven’t played an offense that features one since Kansas City in Week 6, when Travis Kelce went 5-65-2. This is more than I’d like to pay for him by a bit, but he’s a good bet for double-digit points.
I’m more likely to punt TE this week to afford WRs I like. Hayden Hurst ($3,900) offers potential at his price, as Las Vegas also doesn’t defend TEs all that well, but he hasn’t practiced this week. If he doesn’t play, Jaeden Graham ($2,500) becomes a smash in my lineups. Graham has one (1) reception on the year but played 50+% of snaps in the three games Austin Hooper missed in 2019. I will gladly punt my TE spot this week to spend up elsewhere.
Dan Arnold ($2,900) is another punt option. He could see increased usage in Larry Fitzgerald’s absence. Arnold has increased his snap share recently and caught a touchdown last week.
Defense/Special Teams
Generally, I’ll try to find three options at Defense at various price points, and plug the one I can afford after filling the other eight spots in my lineup. The priority here isn’t limiting points. All it takes is two touchdowns to drop a defense’s point total from 10 to 1. Sacks and turnovers are the money-makers here. In this position, we want to target mismatches between pass rush and offensive line.
This week even more than usual, I’m looking to spend down. The Giants ($3,200) offer some upside and are the highest I will go. They face Brandon Allen, starting for the injured Joe Burrow. Allen started three games last year for Denver, completing 46% of his passes and taking 9 sacks.
I like playing defense against the Giants as well. The Bengals ($2,500) offer some savings and any defense playing Daniel Jones has the opportunity for turnovers.
At near-minimum, we have the Jets ($2,100). Miami QBs split time last week and combined for 38 pass attempts for 200 yards. The Jets have just 14 sacks on the season, so you can’t expect much, but salary is best spent this week elsewhere, so punting defense here is a valid option.
