DraftKings Week 10 Main Slate Breakdown
It’s been a while since I wrote this piece. A lot has changed in the NFL since then. Christian McCaffrey came back and then got hurt again.
The core part of daily fantasy for most players is cash games: contests with a flat-payout structure across cashing positions. The strategy behind these games is simple: Maximize your expected points. This article will break down my favorite players of the week and discuss some lineup construction to figure out the best way to put your lineup in the top half of the standings.
In Week 10, we have four teams on bye. This removes three of the most appealing matchups on a slate, as the Falcons, Cowboys, and Jets are three defenses are the ones we most like to target.
Byes: ATL, DAL, KC, NYJ
Thursday Night Football: IND @ TEN
Sunday Night Football: BAL @ NE
Monday Night Football: MIN @ CHI
Main Slate Teams Vegas Breakdown:
Quarterback
Quarterback is a spot i typically like to pay up for in cash, within reason. Quarterbacks score the most points per dollar of any position, so they’re the best investment you can make. At the same time, quarterbacks touch the ball on every play. This means volume isn’t an issue, and cheaper quarterbacks in good matchups can provide ROI while saving salary.
At the top of the QB slate is Kyler Murray ($8,000). Murray is very in play in cash even at $8k for a simple reason; he hasn’t failed to deliver 24 DraftKings points in a game yet. At $8,000, that’s the cash value we look for. In Week 10 he has a potential shootout with Josh Allen ($7,500). Allen rebounded last week with 36 points after four straight weeks under 20. Murray is the safer play in cash, but Allen offers GPP leverage and some savings.
Arguably the top raw play of the week is Aaron Rodgers ($7,900). Rodgers doesn’t quite have the consistency of Murray, as he had a 5-point dud against Tampa Bay, but the Jacksonville defense he gets this week won’t offer the same sort of challenge. Rodgers has four touchdowns in 4/8 games this season and has the highest implied total of the slate in Week 10. Jacksonville is allowing a league-worst 8.1 NY/A and is also last against the pass in DVOA.
A more middling option this week is Jared Goff ($,6500). Goff gets a Seattle defense that gave Josh Allen his get-right game last week. Seattle has allowed the most passing yards in the league as they have the double whammy of QB fantasy matchups: a high-powered offense that forces opponents to throw to keep up and a defense that can’t stop them when they do. Goff hasn’t lit the world on fire, having reached the 20-point mark just three times this season, but that number is easily attainable in this matchup.
There’s also some value in the mid-5k range this week. Derek Carr ($5,400) leads an offense with a quietly solid 27.25-point implied total this week. Carr averages 19.2 DK ppg this year, which would deliver a value of 3.56 on his salary this week. $200 up, Tua Tagovailoa ($5,600) had a solid second career start, delivering 21.42 points against a solid Arizona defense. Casual DraftKings players may be off of him, as DraftKings shows a ppg of just 9.5 on their lineup page, but he’s the real deal and is in play in cash.
Running Back
Running back is the core of a cash lineup. Volume is king in cash games and RB is a position we frequently need to invest to get it. Most cash lineup construction puts a RB in the flex spot.
The highest-priced back on the slate is Alvin Kamara ($8,200), more than $1,000 than the next-priced player, and for good reason. Kamara has five games with at least 8 receptions, giving him a high PPR floor. San Francisco is a tough matchup, but not one where Kamara can’t hit value if you have the salary for him.
From a value standpoints, I prefer Aaron Jones ($7,100). Jones is fully healthy after missing some time with a calf injury. Jacksonville is nearly as bad against the run as they are against the pass, and Jones is probably the best bet on the slate to hit the 100-yard rushing bonus. Jones also has a receiving role, with at least four targets in every game this year.
Just below Jones are a trio of guys in prime matchups.
- James Conner ($6,900) is coming off his lowest snap count since Week 1 in a complete dud against Dallas. Pittsburgh should go back to featuring Conner with neither Benny Snell or Anthony McFarland showing much. This is a matchup he can eat in and should have a positive gamescript.
- Kareem Hunt ($6,700) is the smash play of the week – if Nick Chubb is still out. The rumor is that Chubb is likely to make his return against Houston, which would put both guys in a spot where it will be difficult to return value. Hunt makes for an appealing GPP play if Chubb does play, as it’s possible he will still handle a substantial workload at reduced ownership.
- Finally, James Robinson ($6,600) gets a Packers defense that doesn’t care about stopping the run. Game script is a worry here, but Robinson has 4+ receptions in five of his last six games.
Moving down the pricing list a bit, Duke Johnson ($5,000) looks to be one of the two highest-owned players of the slate. David Johnson is in concussion protocol. Duke played 81% of snaps last week and touched the ball 20 times in David’s absence in Week 9. At that volume, he’s a smash at $5k. $100 higher is DeAndre Swift ($5,100). I dream of a day Matt Patricia wakes up and realizes Swift is his best RB, or gets fired for someone else who does. Until then, Swift is a GPP play who can break out at any time but shouldn’t be expected to.
The free square this week is Mike Davis ($4,000). Davis cost between $6.5k-$7k during McCaffrey’s absence due to his receiving volume. DraftKings inexplicably dropped him back to $4,000 with McCaffrey’s return, and with McCaffrey out this week, Davis resumes his old role. Tampa Bay is not a defense to target with RBs; however Davis can hit value through the air alone. In the Carolina-Tapma Week 2 meeting, he caught 8 passes for 74 yards. The upside is severely capped due to matchup, so there’s plenty of merit to fading Davis in GPPs, but he’s the safest play on the slate for cash.
Wide Receivers
Targets are king at the WR position. Generally speaking, you’re looking for 1.5 targets per $1,000 of salary. Touchdowns are variable and hard to predict; in cash, the process is all about finding volume.
No WR sees more reliable volume than Davante Adams ($9,000). Adams has carried the load for the Green Bay receiving corps this year and leads the NFL with 11.5 targets per game. At $9k, we’re looking for 27 points to hit value, and Adams has passed that in each of his last three games. With value at RB in Johnson and Davis, Adams is attainable in cash if we want to get up to him.
Keenan Allen ($7,100) is next in targets per game. His matchup with the Dolphins is not great on paper, but will depend on how Miami utilizes their corner duo of Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. The pair has locked down opponents, but rarely venture into the slot, with slot rates of 3.9% and 6.3%, respectively. Allen spends 46.5% of his time in the slot. Even if Miami moves one of Jones/Howard around, LA does a good job of scheming Allen open. I’m confident in keeping Allen rolling.
The next name I like at WR is Tyler Lockett ($6,700). Lockett has taken a backseat to DK Metcalf in the Seattle passing offense pecking order, but Metcalf will draw coverage from Jalen Ramsey in Week 10. The Seattle offense should shift it’s focus to feeding Lockett. On the other side of the ball in the same game, I think both LAR receivers Cooper Kupp ($6,900) and Robert Woods ($6,600) are in play. I prefer Woods in this matchup as Seattle is stronger in the middle of the field with Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams, but Kupp is coming off a 21-target game and can easily meet value as well.
Jerry Jeudy ($5,600) is coming off of a $900 price increase after setting career highs in targets (14), receptions (7), and receiving yards (125) against Atlanta. Despite this, I still like him in this spot. Jeudy’s 359 unfulfilled air yards this season is the second-highest on the slate, and his air yards total of 843 outpaces Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Terry McLaurin, and Lockett. There’s a lot of potential here, and Las Vegas has the 26th rated defense by DVOA.
Diontae Johnson ($5,200) has struggled to stay healthy this season, but when he is, he’s the best WR on the Steelers. He seems fully healthy now, so I think we can fire him up against Cincinnati.
There’s some under-$4.5k priced plays this week that will open up salary to use on premium players if you like the ‘studs and duds’ approach:
- Jalen Reagor ($4,200) got six targets two weeks ago against Dallas. I expect the Eagles to make an effort to increase the rookie’s involvement after the bye.
- K.J. Hamler ($3,800) has played 75% of snaps in two straight games and saw 10 targets last week. He could see plenty of volume in the slot against a Raiders defense that doesn’t cover the slot well.
- My punt of the week is Jakeem Grant ($3,000). Devante Parker will likely see Casey Heyward in shadow coverage. That should open up opportunities for other options, and Grant is the pick of Miami’s thin receiving corps.
- Chris Conley ($3,000) is an option if Laviska Shenault misses this game. D.J. Chark will draw Jaire Alexander in coverage, and we saw Richie James have a huge game in garbage time last week.
Tight Ends
Tight End is a position it’s generally best to spend down at. besides defense, Tight End is the lowest-scoring position on DraftKings, and their scoring is more TD-dependent.
Darren Waller ($5,700) leads all TEs in targets with 9 per game. That’s more than Cooper Kupp and Tyler Lockett, who cost $1,200 and $800 more. Waller is the focal point of the Raiders’ passing offense and is the best bet to hit double digit points. He is unlikely to hit 3x value of 17.1 points, however, as he’s only bested that mark once this year.
Hunter Henry ($4,100) averages 6.6 targets per game. As I mentioned earlier with Grant, he could be in line for an increased workload as Miami defends the perimeter better than the middle of the field.
At the lower end of pricing, Logan Thomas ($3,300) has four targets in every game this year. He’s failed to hit 8 points in 5 of 8 games this year, but if you’re looking to really spend down, is an option.
Defense/Special Teams
Generally, I’ll try to find three options at Defense at various price points, and plug the one I can afford after filling the other eight spots in my lineup. The priority here isn’t limiting points. All it takes is two touchdowns to drop a defense’s point total from 10 to 1. Sacks and turnovers are the money-makers here. In this position, we want to target mismatches between pass rush and offensive line.
The highest-priced cash option for me this week is the Eagles ($3,600). Daniel Jones is a turnover machine, and Philadelphia has the fifth-best adjusted sack rate in the league.
At $400 down, the Washington Football Team ($3,200) has the best adjusted sack rate in the league. They get a Detroit offense that is 21st in adjusted sack rate allowed.
My punt option is the Las Vegas Raiders ($2,500). This is a strictly damage-control pick, as they don’t get to the QB all that much. The Broncos have turned it over 16 times this season, however, and are 24th in adjusted sack rate allowed.
